NHL: 1st Quarter Season Analysis, Surprises and Performance of the 32 Teams

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The 2025-26 NHL season has completed its first quarter, with all 32 teams having played more than 20 games. As usual, there have been positive surprises, such as the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Anaheim Ducks, as well as not-so-positive surprises, including the Toronto Maple Leafs, St. Louis Blues, and Vancouver Canucks. But, how are the teams graded in this first quarter of the season? Here’s a summary of what’s gone well, what’s gone wrong, and the grade for each of the 32 clubs. Note: Teams are listed alphabetically by rating. Ryan S. Clark evaluated the teams in the Pacific and Central Divisions, and Kristen Shilton evaluated those in the Metropolitan and Atlantic Divisions. Statistics are for games through November 23.

NHL: 1st Quarter Season Analysis, Surprises and Performance of the 32 Teams

Grades A

Colorado Avalanche

Preseason Over/Under: 103.5
Current Points Pace: 137.9

What has gone well? They lead the NHL in goals per game and also concede the fewest goals per game. They generate the most scoring chances per 60 minutes, shots per 60, and scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play. Their defensive structure has made them a top 10 team in terms of the fewest shots allowed per 60 and the fewest high-danger chances per 60.

Nathan MacKinnon is in a position to win his second Hart Trophy. Cale Makar could win his third Norris Trophy, and could even challenge MacKinnon for the Hart. Now they seem to have the supporting cast capable of providing consistent contributions. The Avs could be the best team in the NHL. And at their current pace, they could threaten, if not surpass, the Bruins’ record of 135 points in the regular season set in the 2022-23 regular season.What has gone wrong? Leading the NHL with 4.00 goals per game carries the assumption that the Avs can score in any situation. But the Avs are struggling when it comes to consistently scoring goals on the power play. Entering Monday, the Avs had a top-10 power-play unit that was only converting 15.7% of its opportunities. Rating: A+

Anaheim Ducks

Preseason Over/Under: 83.5
Current points pace: 108.1What has gone well? They are fighting for the Pacific Division crown. They have the second most prolific attack in terms of goals per game. They continue to see their young talents grow, while offseason addition Chris Kreider had 14 points in his first 15 games. But what could be the strongest indication of how well the Ducks are doing this season is Leo Carlsson’s projected scoring pace. A Ducks player has only finished with more than 100 points in a season four times in franchise history. Carlsson is not only on track to join a list with Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne, but is projected to finish with 108 points. That puts Carlsson in a position to have what could be one of the best individual seasons in team history and threaten Selanne’s franchise record of 109 points.What has gone wrong? An excessive reliance on Lukas Dostal in the defensive zone. Dostal has started in 17 of the Ducks’ first 22 games. It’s a pace that projects him to play 63 games, which is the kind of workload reserved for top-tier goalies like Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. But there are also the underlying numbers. The Ducks are in the top three in terms of the most scoring chances allowed, shots against, and high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. It’s a contrast with Dostal recording 5.42 goals saved above expected, which makes him sixth among goalies with more than 10 games. Rating: A

Dallas Stars

Preseason Over/Under: 103.5 Current Points Pace: 111.8

What went well? Glen Gulutzan’s second stint at the helm of the Stars could be defined by perspective. There are some questions about why the Stars are in the bottom 10 in scoring chances per 60, shots per 60, and high-danger scoring chances per 60. But there are also those who would argue that perhaps it’s just a sign of efficiency. The Stars have the NHL’s number 2 power-play unit and are also tenth in goals per game.

It’s a promising return in a season that began with doubts about how they would fare with a new coach, considering they lost three forwards in the offseason: Evgenii Dadonov, Mikael Granlund, and Mason Marchment.What has gone wrong? There has been a bit of a disconnect with how the Stars perform in the defensive zone at 5-on-5 compared to the penalty kill. They are among the top 10 teams in the fewest goals allowed per game and the fewest high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60. They are also near the league average in allowing the fewest shots per 60. However, their PK has not been up to par, with a 75.7% success rate, which is among the worst 10 in the NHL. Rating: A

Detroit Red Wings

Preseason Over/Under: 84.5
Current Points Pace: 100.6What has gone well? Detroit is having its best start in a decade, and it’s not for one particular reason. This is a group effort that fulfills general manager Steve Yzerman’s vision for the Red Wings as a team of high skill and responsible on defense. Head coach Todd McLellan is maximizing Detroit’s potential in his first full season. Defensive participation is not only reflected in the statistics, such as the way the Red Wings average the fewest shots against per game this season, but also in the way skaters like Dylan Larkin are thriving. The Red Wings captain leads the team in goals and points and has provided invaluable leadership to equally impressive rookie forwards Emmitt Finnie and Nate Danielson. In the back, rookie Axel Sandin-Pellikka has been an important presence and has provided Detroit with the depth it needed to be among the best in the Atlantic.What has gone wrong? The Red Wings have leaned on a strong power play this season; it’s their even-strength scoring that can improve. It won’t be sustainable for Detroit to depend on the extra man to get ahead. Although the Red Wings have collectively reinforced themselves on defense, they are still conceding more than three goals against per game, which speaks in part to their goaltending. Cam Talbot has been better this season than the last, but John Gibson, Yzerman’s big offseason acquisition, has been no kind of savior. The Red Wings have to hope that tandem can make the difference for them from now on. Rating: A

New York Islanders

Preseason Over/Under: 84.5
Current Points Pace: 99.8What went well? Let’s start with the obvious: Matthew Schaefer. The rookie defenseman arrived better than advertised after New York selected him at number 1 in the 2025 draft. Schaefer is electrifying at both ends of the court and takes on significant minutes (more than 22 per game) that show the great confidence that coach Patrick Roy already has in the favorite for the Calder Trophy. And he’s not the only exciting rookie that has Islanders fans buzzing. Maxim Shabanov delivered a three-point performance to cap off a recent 6-1-0 road trip, illustrating why New York coveted the former KHL player (and why he’s likely to get a promotion from the fourth line). Beyond those two skaters, the Islanders are getting solid goaltending from Ilya Sorokin and David Rittich and, for a team that has constantly sought more offense, New York is in the top 10 in the NHL in goals, thanks to the efforts of Bo Horvat (who is having his best start in years) and a healthy Mathew Barzal and Kyle Palmieri.What went wrong? The Islanders don’t have a potent power play (it’s among the worst in the league) and there’s concern that their offense may be too reliant on a few players to keep up with the deeper clubs. New York has also just lost one of its best defensemen, Alexander Romanov, for five or six months after shoulder surgery following a hit from Dallas’ Mikko Rantanen. Given that the Islanders have exceeded expectations so far, it’s difficult to criticize what hasn’t worked for them in the grand scheme of the first quarter. Rating: A

Pittsburgh Penguins

Preseason Over/Under: 77.5
Current Points Pace: 97.6What has gone well? Pittsburgh is possibly one of the most surprising contenders of the season. Few would have chosen the Penguins to be in contention for the Eastern Conference playoffs in the first quarter of the season. This is a different Penguins team under first-year head coach Dan Muse, who is pushing all the right buttons. Muse’s system brings out the best in Pittsburgh skaters by giving them freedom to operate, and that has paid off in the Penguins’ growing confidence. Pittsburgh is conceding the second-fewest goals this season, ranks in the top 10 in offense, and has the league’s best power play. The Penguins’ goaltending has benefited from the emergence of Arturs Silovs and an improved Tristan Jarry. Basically, everything has gone smoothly for Pittsburgh.What has gone wrong? The Penguins have a problem closing out certain games, that is, those that extend beyond regulation time. Pittsburgh has a 0-4 record this season in overtime and the shootout, something Muse has sought to address with practice exercises focused on the club’s 3-on-3 work. The standings this season are tighter than ever, and leaving points on the table is often a small area that Pittsburgh can improve. Rickard Rackell will be out for two months due to a hand fracture suffered in October, and that will continue to affect the Penguins’ depth. Jarry entering the injured reserve earlier this month was also a blow and will test Pittsburgh’s resilience. Rating: A

Carolina Hurricanes

Preseason Over/Under: 105.5
Current points pace: 111.8What went well? Carolina isn’t the most exciting team in the league, but it’s one of the best for a reason. The Hurricanes thrive on the structure of head coach Rod Brind’Amour, which emphasizes suffocating defensive play. However, their offense has really excelled this season, ranking second overall thanks to a potent Seth Jarvis, who leads the team in goals, a slippery Sebastian Aho, who sets the pace for Carolina in points, and the ever-constant Jordan Staal. Goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov has been excellent in net amid the difficult start of starter Frederik Andersen. Overall, the Hurricanes are deep, detailed, and disciplined. It’s no surprise that they’ve only lost consecutive games once this season.What has gone wrong? The Hurricanes haven’t thrived on special teams. Their power play is the worst in the league and they rank 21st in penalty kill. It’s a harsh reality given how Carolina can dominate at even strength (ranking third in 5-on-5 goals) and could be a temporary blip if Brind’Amour can figure out why the power play, especially, is a momentum killer. Carolina also has a goaltending riddle with Andersen. The often-injured veteran has already dealt with a concussion this season and his numbers have been poor when available. Kochetkov can’t be expected to carry the entire load, so Carolina will need Andersen to get going or look for more goaltending options. Rating: A-

New Jersey Devils

Preseason Over/Under: 99.5 Current Points Pace: 105.4

What has gone well? New Jersey’s star-studded offense has been producing at a solid pace this season: Jack Hughes had 20 points in 17 games, Jesper Bratt had 21 in 21, and Nico Hischier continues to be capable of being one of the league’s top two-way centers.

The Devils’ goaltending is another strength due to veteran Jake Allen, who has been excellent handling a larger workload this season. Meanwhile, defenseman Simon Nemec has flourished after taking a bit longer to find his stride than some expected after being drafted No. 2 overall in 2022. He has taken on a large workload, and that has only amplified how good he can be in the Devils’ own end, as well as jumping into the rush.What went wrong? The Devils just wanted to have a nice team dinner in Chicago, and instead, the night ended with Hughes requiring surgery on his finger after a strange accident at the restaurant. Having Hughes healthy is (almost) all New Jersey needs to be a Stanley Cup contender, and now that he’s out for several weeks (along with Cody Glass and Brett Pesce), the Devils will turn to their depth to cover. Speaking of depth, it’s good that Allen has been on such a roll at the start of the season because Jacob Markstrom hasn’t been. With Hughes out now, it’s even more imperative that New Jersey find ways to keep scoring and not expose Allen to an avalanche that will wear him down. Rating: A-B Ratings

Boston Bruins

Preseason Over/Under: 80.5 Current Points Pace: 88.8What has gone well? The Bruins were supposed to be the bottom feeders of the Atlantic Division. But, plot twist, they’ve actually been one of its top contenders. All credit to first-year head coach Marco Sturm for implementing a defense-first structure that Boston has embraced enough to mitigate some of the sting of top center Elias Lindholm missing most of the season to date due to a lower-body injury. The defenseman Nikita Zadorov has been particularly strong, bringing a forceful presence to the Bruins’ blue line. Boston has also benefited from Jeremy Swayman’s return to form this season, and the team is in the top 10 in both power play and penalty kill. The Bruins were not expected to be a powerhouse up front, but David Pastrnak has been his usual dynamic self and Morgan Geekie is a rising offensive star.What has gone wrong? Injuries are piling up. Defenseman Charlie McAvoy is out indefinitely after taking a puck to the face, and Casey Mittelstadt, Viktor Arvidsson, and Jordan Harris have also been sidelined recently. The Bruins have exceeded expectations from the start, but it doesn’t seem sustainable if skaters like Lindholm and McAvoy are out for an extended period and the rest of the league gets healthy enough to catch up. Even with Sturm’s message and Swayman’s solid play, the Bruins are still among the bottom 10 in goals against, and that’s not an encouraging statistic now that McAvoy won’t be there to anchor the defense. The Bruins need consistency and could have difficulty finding it. Rating: B+

Chicago Blackhawks

Preseason Over/Under: 67.5
Current points pace: 89.5What went well? Think about the problems the Blackhawks faced last season. Many of them have become the foundation of a team that is in the running for the biggest surprise of the NHL in the first quarter of the regular season. The questions about Connor Bedard have been replaced by another set of questions: Will he go to the Canadian Olympic team and possibly win a scoring title? Bedard is on pace to score 116 points and, if that holds, it will be the highest-scoring season by any Blackhawks player not named Denis Savard. In addition, any concerns about the struggles of their veterans from last season have been erased by what they are doing this season. Although Bedard is generating a lot of attention, the goaltending could signify how much has changed with the Blackhawks compared to last season. They finished with a team save percentage of .894 in 2024-25, but have started this season with a .911 mark in the first 22 games, tied for fourth in the NHL. Spencer Knight is making his case for why he could be under Olympic consideration for the United States team.What has gone wrong? Finding cohesion within their defensive structure remains a problem. Make no mistake, the Blackhawks were expected to encounter some challenges on the defensive end due in part to being what Elite Prospects lists as the third youngest team in the NHL this season. Their top four defensemen, in terms of minutes played, are under 24 years old, and two of them are rookies.

Having so much youth alongside the Blackhawks’ structure has played a role in why they are among the bottom four in scoring chances allowed per 60, high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60, and shots allowed per 60 in 5-on-5 play through their first 22 games.

Rating: B+

Montreal Canadiens

Preseason Over/Under: 90.5 Current Points Pace: 97.6What went well? Montreal didn’t think rookie goalie Jakub Dobes would be the backbone of their success early in the season, but the rising star became exactly that by surpassing starter Sam Montembeault as one of the league’s breakout goalies. Dobes has been helped by the Canadiens’ more consistent defensive effort. Montreal didn’t pay enough attention to that end of the rink last season, and that hurt them. Now, the Canadiens have been stronger through the neutral zone and have played with tighter gaps to limit rush opportunities. The Canadiens’ top skaters have also performed, with Cole Caufield already scoring 13 goals and Nick Suzuki accumulating 22 points in their first 20 games.What has gone wrong? The Canadiens have recently regressed after their impressive start. Dobes and Montembeault have been below average and Montreal’s confidence seems shaken by unbalanced defeats (such as a 7-0 loss against Dallas) that call into question all the progress they seemed to have made in all areas. Injuries also continue to take their toll, with Kaiden Guhle, Kirby Dach, Patrik Laine, and Alex Newhook out for significant periods. Montreal was a surprise playoff team last season, but proved it wasn’t a fluke given how well they started this season. To remain in that conversation, Montreal has to rely on its depth and not lose sight of those defensive details that make the difference. Rating: B+

Philadelphia Flyers

Preseason Over/Under: 83.5
Current points pace: 102.5What has gone well? Philadelphia is right in the hazy middle of the Eastern Conference and that’s not so bad if you’re the Flyers. Rick Tocchet’s group is finding ways to win hockey games with solid defensive play: they’ve hovered around the top 10 in goals against per game. That has also extended to their penalty kill, which is near the top of the league. Goaltender Dan Vladar has been a surprisingly reliable starter, transitioning from a tandem option with Samuel Ersson to being the backbone of the entire Philadelphia operation. Another pillar is defenseman Travis Sanheim, who has been in charge of the Flyers’ blue line. And up front, Trevor Zegras, acquired in the offseason to bolster Philadelphia’s center depth, is averaging more than a point per game to lead the Flyers’ offense along with Travis Konecny.What has gone wrong? The Flyers have a good group of forwards, but they are not producing at a high enough rate. Philadelphia ranks 26th in goals per game this season, and their power play is operating below 20%. Although Vladar and the team’s collective defensive approach have put the Flyers in a solid position for now, it won’t last unless they can find more contributors on the scoresheet. Specifically, Matvei Michkov has regressed this season, with only nine points in his first 19 games, and Philadelphia is still looking for consistency throughout the lineup. There’s also the issue of Ersson and whether he can support Vladar as the season progresses. Some nights, Ersson can pass the visual test, but if Vladar stumbles or gets injured, they will count on the backup to step up. Rating: B+

San Jose Sharks

Preseason Over/Under: 70.5
Current points pace: 89.1What has gone well? Any conversation about the Sharks right now is one that requires a level of nuance. Their current projection has them on pace to finish with more than 80 points for the first time since the 2018-19 season, which was also their last playoff appearance. They have seen the progress of their young core of Yaroslav Askarov, William Eklund, and Will Smith, while their veterans continue to help in ways that can and cannot be measured. Then there’s a completely different conversation to be had about Macklin Celebrini. Yes, Celebrini has been so good that he’s among the league leaders in points and could be making his way onto Canada’s Olympic team. However, what might be missed in the discussion about Celebrini is the idea that he could end up having the best individual season in Sharks history. He’s currently on pace to score 121 points, and if that holds, he would surpass Joe Thornton for the most in a single season (114).

What went wrong? The six-game losing streak to start the season. They conceded more than three goals in each of those losses, which only amplified what it meant to start the season in a hole. It was a streak that also played a role in why the Sharks are among the bottom 10 in goals per game, goals allowed per game and have the eleventh-worst penalty kill.

To put it another way: Since the losing streak ended on October 23, the Sharks have the fourth-most points in the NHL. Rating: B+

Seattle Kraken

Preseason Over/Under: 78.5
Current points pace: 104.4

What has gone well? Only the Rangers have committed a higher percentage of their active salary space to their goalies than the Kraken. The early results of that investment are one of the main reasons the Kraken are actively fighting for a playoff spot right now.

The metrics from Natural Stat Trick show that the Kraken led the NHL in team save percentage at 5-on-5 as of Monday, and were tied for fourth in team save percentage in all situations. Joey Daccord, Philipp Grubauer, and Matt Murray have provided a continuity in net that has complemented the Kraken’s defensive structure. The first season of Lane Lambert as coach has seen the Kraken re-establish their defensive identity as one of the strongest teams in the NHL to limit high-danger scoring chances per 60 and scoring chances per 60 in game 5 against 5.What went wrong? Allowing 2.59 goals per game has made the Kraken one of the toughest teams to score against this season. But scoring 2.55 goals per game will make it harder for the Kraken to stay in the fight for a playoff spot. The margins have been so tight that they had identical numbers in terms of goals scored per game and goals allowed per game as recently as Friday. Having such a small margin for error is part of a larger compound that illustrates how the Kraken have struggled to score goals and find ways to generate those scoring opportunities. There are only three teams in the NHL that average fewer goals per game than the Kraken. It’s a process that has been made even more difficult by the fact that the Kraken are last in scoring chances per 60, shots per 60, and high-danger chances per 60. And yet, they entered Monday just one point behind the Ducks for first place in the Pacific Division, having been in a
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