Gavin McKenna Breaks the Mold: From the WHL to Penn State and the NHL Draft

Gavin McKenna: The New Ice Hockey Promise Shaking Up the NHL Draft

The anticipation is at its peak. When Gavin McKenna is selected in the first position of the NHL draft in 2026, a scenario that experts take for granted for this 17-year-old, it will mark a milestone in multiple aspects. McKenna, with his exceptional talent, represents a hope for a struggling team, a new icon for the league and a radical change in the development of NHL prospects. McKenna, after an impressive season with the Medicine Hat Tigers of the Western Hockey League (WHL), where he accumulated 129 points in 56 games, has been compared to figures like Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov. However, his decision to leave Canadian junior hockey to join the men’s hockey program at Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) has surprised the hockey world. This bold move places McKenna, 18, in the Big Ten, facing more experienced and physically stronger players. “It was a very difficult decision. There are many excellent options. But my family and I decided that Penn State was the best place for me next year,” McKenna stated on “SportsCenter”. This decision coincides with a time of transformations for NHL prospects. The NCAA, last November, determined that Canadian junior players can now participate in Division I teams, ending a policy that forced young athletes to choose between the CHL and college hockey. This new rule, in effect since August, makes McKenna one of the first Canadian junior players to make the jump to the NCAA, and undoubtedly, the most prominent.

“Gavin is elite. He has dominated youth hockey like few in the past,” said Craig Button, TSN prospect analyst.

Craig Button, TSN prospect analyst

The historic NCAA decision came just as college hockey programs had financial incentives, such as “name, image, and likeness” (NIL), for players. McKenna’s NIL money for attending Penn State is estimated to be around $700,000, according to a source. Michigan State, which also wanted him, offered between $200,000 and $300,000. The Nittany Lions men’s hockey program joined Division I in 2012. In 2015, an alumnus debuted in the NHL and in 2017 they won the Big Ten tournament, and the regular season title in 2020. The Nittany Lions reached the Frozen Four for the first time last season. “It’s a good program. Penn State has a good structure,” said Tony Granato, who coached Wisconsin in the Big Ten from 2016 to 2023. Now, the program has a star whose name could be associated with Penn State hockey. The team has had eight players selected by NHL teams. Last month, defenseman Jackson Smith became the first Penn State player chosen in the first round, with the number 14 pick by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Penn State coach Guy Gadowsky credits McKenna for taking this leap of faith. “I think when you talk specifically about Penn State, I think he has a pioneering mentality. He wants to be first, and I think he’s very comfortable with that pressure,” Gadowsky said. Agent Pat Brisson, who has worked with other NHL draft talents such as Sidney Crosby, John Tavares, and Nathan MacKinnon, now works with McKenna. “From the beginning, [Penn State] is where he wanted to go. It was something he had in mind,” said Brisson. “I’ve learned one thing about some of these special young people: they have that special spark. They have these goals in mind and they are special for a reason. I sit with Gavin and I can see how his brain works. It’s unique. It’s hard to explain.” Even more difficult to explain is the impact that McKenna’s path and other Canadian junior hockey stars will have on the sport in the coming years. McKenna’s decision to go to the NCAA would have been much more complicated in the past. The NCAA had considered anyone who played in the CHL ineligible because there are players who have signed professional contracts with NHL teams who play in those leagues that comprise it: the Ontario Hockey League, the Western Hockey League, and the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League. CHL players are also paid a monthly stipend that is limited to $250. But in November 2024, the NCAA Division I council voted in favor of CHL players being eligible for NCAA Division I hockey starting in 2025. The council ruled that players can compete in the CHL without jeopardizing their eligibility for NCAA Division I hockey, as long as they are not “paid more than actual and necessary expenses as part of that participation”. The Western Hockey League commissioner, Dan Near, issued a statement supporting the changes in NCAA rules as a way to “alleviate the tension” for young players and their families who had to decide between junior hockey and NCAA eligibility. “We stand firm on that. The fact that we are disappointed that Gavin won’t be playing in our league next year doesn’t mean we have a different view on this,” Near said. “We wish Gavin the best. They had an incredible team in Medicine Hat. He did a lot for the community and the league. I hope he has a lot of success.” Near warned against drawing conclusions based on McKenna’s chosen path to the NHL. “Gavin McKenna moving early from the WHL or CHL isn’t the same as all the other changes that are happening,” he said. “He’s a notable cog in the wheel, for sure. But this is such a giant and complicated environment we’re living in right now that’s changing so rapidly. I think almost everyone would acknowledge that it’s going to take some time to see what happens.” But McKenna’s decision has codified what many believe could be a new prospect pathway in hockey: players who start in the CHL and then move to the NCAA right before being drafted into the NHL, or immediately after. BUTTON BELIEVES McKenna’s path is the new way. He played 16 games with Medicine Hat in 2022-23, followed by 61 games in 2023-24, scoring 97 points, and then 56 games last season before packing for Penn State. “Now you can say, ‘What’s best for my development at 15? Or at 16? Or at 17?’ There will be many players who play in the CHL because the level of play and training are good. But now they don’t have to give up that opportunity to play in the NCAA,” he said. There are differences between the two paths. The CHL has players who compete in significantly more games in preparation for training similar to the NHL. The NCAA plays fewer games, which leaves players more time to develop and train among themselves. The CHL offers players the opportunity to compete against those on their own development curve, while the NCAA has 18-year-olds battling against 23-year-olds. The CHL is the life of the accommodations. The NCAA is college life. Button is optimistic about the changing landscape. “I really, really love the idea of more doors opening and options being presented for players to look at their development in a different way,” he said. Also, he doesn’t see this as a serious blow to the CHL. He points to NHL stars like Kane and Matthew Tkachuk who selected Canadian juniors over the NCAA. He notes that the top current prospects who end up in the NCAA will likely do so after spending significant time in the Canadian juniors. McKenna played 2½ seasons in Medicine Hat before making the jump to Penn State, leading the team to a conference championship and an appearance in the Memorial Cup last season. “I know the CHL doesn’t want to lose 19-year-olds to the NCAA, but they’re also going to get players they wouldn’t have gotten at 16 and 17,” Button said. But Near doesn’t believe this is necessarily a new pipeline of talent for NHL prospects. “I have no problem with people experimenting or trying things. I have no problem with other leagues that may be envious of the success we’ve had, or wanting to be declared equal to us, trying to suggest that we should be a development league for the NCAA, which in turn would be a development league for the NHL,” Near said. “But that’s not what we are.”

The WHL commissioner points out that the CHL has the best player development record, one that goes back 50 years. He points to the 2025 NHL draft, in which 21 of the 32 first-round picks came from Canadian junior hockey, while five picks were credited to U.S. college programs. “The idea of someone going to the NCAA before their draft year will be occasional,” Near said. “This isn’t just about money. It’s also about what environment will put a player in the best situation to boost their development in hockey.” Indicate the environment of the accommodations. “Having a mother figure and a father figure around you to support you, help you with meals, and help you learn to do laundry and be independent,” she said. Point to the CHL schedule and the number of games players will appear in during a typical season, and note that former junior players beginning their professional careers in the American Hockey League have said the CHL better prepared them for that training. Near doesn’t want the WHL to rest on its reputation. It has a survey for players this offseason to hear what works and what doesn’t for them. “We’re not crossing our arms and saying we do it best. We’re dedicating a lot of time to evaluating what we can do better, how we can improve the player experience and environment,” he said. That includes thinking about CHL players who might return to junior hockey after moving to the NCAA. It’s a trend that several sources anticipated would happen in the new paradigm. The factors behind that reversal could range from lack of playing time to the understanding that they are not ready to face greater competition, to the fact that not all 18-year-olds who “enter a college campus, join the first power game and earn the most NIL money” will be welcomed with open arms by older teammates with their own NHL aspirations, as framed by an NHL source. “NCAA hockey is difficult for many 18 and 19 year olds,” said Button, who sees the option of returning to juniors as part of the transfer portal. “There’s a transfer portal in NCAA athletics right now. Maybe not as much playing time. Maybe there’s a depth chart where I don’t fit. Maybe I’m not getting as much. So now you have the transfer portal between schools, and there’s going to be a transfer portal back to the CHL. That’s going to be the reality,” he said. Another possible complication for Canadians arriving in the NCAA: rapidly changing immigration policies could affect student visa status. It’s a topic that Big Ten schools like Oregon have openly discussed since NIL began. “I’m not encouraging anything to go wrong, but we’re setting up our operations so that if a player regrets it, we’ll welcome them,” Near said. “I think there’s a possibility that some guys will come back to our league. I think people may develop a greater appreciation for all the things we do to create a player development experience. Hopefully it will come sooner, because it’s a stressful time. But we are watching closely and we are acting where we think it makes sense.” While times are stressful for Canadian junior hockey, Button doesn’t believe changes to the prospect pipeline are a net negative for the CHL. “There are some people who say everything is going to hell. No, it’s not like that,” he said. “Doors are opening for CHL teams by getting good, younger players into their program. The NCAA is getting more talent from players who have been drafted, who now see college hockey as an option. NHL teams have more open options regarding who they are signing. I think that’s great.” AS IF THE PROSPECT LANDSCAPE hadn’t undergone enough changes, the NHL and NHLPA changed it even more in their new collective bargaining agreement, which begins in the 2026-27 season. An important change concerns 19-year-old players who were drafted by NHL teams from Canadian junior teams. The NHL-CHL transfer agreement dictates that they must either be placed on an NHL roster or be returned to their junior team. Currently, CHL players cannot play in the American Hockey League until they turn 20 or complete four seasons in the CHL. In the new CBA, the NHL will reopen its agreement with the CHL to try to eliminate the mandatory return rule. “The NHL will seek to limit NHL clubs to lending no more than one (1) 19-year-old player per year to the AHL without the requirement to first offer said player to their junior club,” says the new amendment. Perhaps most importantly for the NHL draft, the new CBA states that players selected at 18 will retain their rights until “the fourth June 1st after being drafted.” For players selected at 19, their rights will be retained “until the third June 1st after being drafted.”

Button views this as a significant new development window for teams and players that will impact youth and the NCAA. “The team has your rights for four years. It used to be in the CHL that you had to sign the player two years after drafting him,” he said. “In the past, you might have to make a signing decision. Now, if a 20-year-old player might not be ready, a team can send him to the NCAA so he can have another year under his belt while retaining his rights.” This practice could become one of the most significant developments in the post-NCAA eligibility world: that NHL teams could use the NCAA as a preparatory league for former Canadian junior players before bringing them to the professional level. “I think because of that fact, you’re going to get more high-profile players in college hockey,” Gadowsky said. “NHL teams are going to support going to college hockey because of that. There are a lot of great players who have had a lot of success in junior hockey and are looking for the next step, but who may not be ready to go to the NHL. I think college hockey is an attractive option for many NHL teams.” This trend is already happening. The Calgary Flames took center Cole Reschny from the WHL Victoria Royals at number 18 in last month’s draft. Reschny is heading to North Dakota next season. (His Royals teammate, Keaton Verhoeff, a highly touted defenseman, will join him at NoDak as the rare 17-year-old NCAA player.) The New York Rangers selected winger Malcolm Spence from the OHL Erie Otters at number 43. He will play at the University of Michigan next season. “CHL and USHL teams have resources. They spend a lot of time on development, but it’s different at an NCAA school, especially a major power,” Button said. “It’s going to be really interesting for 18-year-olds who aren’t ready for the NHL to go back to juniors, and then at 19 you say ‘Either you’re in the NHL or you’re back in juniors.’ Well, now there’s the NCAA as the next step in terms of their development. You have to be a student-athlete and you have to commit to that. But I think the NHL benefits from this as well.” MCKENNA will PROBABLY go straight to the NHL after next summer’s draft, as almost every No. 1 pick has done for decades. He will do so after facing older and bigger players for a season before joining the NHL, as Macklin Celebrini did with Boston University and Auston Matthews with Zurich SC in the Swiss league. “The guys who are confident and ready for that next challenge, that won’t scare them. They don’t care about falling in the draft. They care about improving,” Granato said. “If they’re going to improve by playing against older, bigger, and stronger players in a better league, they’re going to do it. That’s their mentality.” McKenna would be only the fourth winger in the last 15 drafts to be selected first overall, after Nail Yakupov (Edmonton Oilers, 2012), Alexis Lafreniere (New York Rangers, 2020) and Juraj Slafkovsky (Montreal Canadiens, 2022). None of these players had the early enthusiasm that McKenna has generated, which is usually reserved for a franchise-level center among offensive players, such as Connor McDavid or Matthews. Button doesn’t see McKenna at McDavid’s level, and doesn’t see him as the goal scorer that Matthews has become. In the recent ranking of the NHL’s first overall picks, he would place McKenna between Celebrini (San Jose, 2024) and Connor Bedard (Chicago, 2023). But Button said the NHL comparisons for McKenna, if he reaches the potential of his trajectory, are a pair of former Hart Trophy winners: Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov. Both players can score goals, with Kane being sixth (492) and Kucherov 22nd (357) among active players. But it’s his playmaking ability on the wing that reminds Button of McKenna, who was a fan of Kane (and a fan of the Blackhawks) while growing up in Whitehorse, Yukon. “The way he can control the game, take over games. I think we play similar styles. Smart hockey players who can slow the game down but speed it up when we want,” McKenna said.

Gadowsky said McKenna’s ability to slow things down and create at his own pace is indicative of an elite player who thinks the game differently. Gadowsky grew up watching Wayne Gretzky. While he’s not about to make a direct comparison between “The Great One” and “The Nittany One”, the way they both process hockey is something that no one can teach them. It’s inherent. “There’s no way I or anyone else on our staff thinks like Gavin. He’s a very, very special athlete,” he said. “There’s no way I’m going to talk to him about how his mind creates. It’s all him, and it’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.” That Penn State fans are the ones seeing it is still a bit surreal for Gadowsky, the only coach the program has known as part of the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions have been a slow-build success. Getting McKenna to commit is a giant leap for the program, and for college hockey. “There are a lot of great Penn State fans who are very, very excited to see him play and see what he does in the future,” Gadowsky said. “I mean, they’re going to love him. They absolutely are going to love him and we’re thrilled that someone of his stature is attached to Penn State.”