Ice Hockey Players to Sign: Possible Fantasy Revelations
Every fantasy manager dreams of finding the player who jumps from a late selection to a league winner. The trick is knowing when that jump will happen, identifying the precise age and experience window where potential turns into production. In the past season, age-related curves for fantasy production were analyzed and the system was updated to identify potential breakout candidates, adding more specific criteria.Each forward was under 23 years and 331 days old. They averaged less than 1.70 fantasy points per game (PPG) in their career up to that point. They had at least 100 games of NHL experience, but less than 180. They had not maintained a 30-game stretch averaging 1.70 FPPG or more.
Candidates for Revelation
Logical and sensible, without complaints, but the more one reflected, the more it was understood that one was not exactly finding what one was looking for. If a true breakout player is defined, it is someone who transforms from a minimal acquisition cost into a difference maker, and with the previous threshold of 1.70 FPPG, that doesn’t really describe a difference maker. In fact, that’s close to the replacement level.This time, the parameters are modified so that the criteria for establishing a disclosure benchmark are specifically aimed at the best fantasy players. Now, we are looking for players who have not yet finished among the top 100 fantasy forwards in any season, and who are within the typical age and experience range in which most forwards historically excel.
Some specific numbers to know what was searched for:
- Sample size: Since 2009-10, 281 forwards appeared at least twice among the top 100 in fantasy scoring. (Isolated cases were excluded).
- Revelation threshold: The group’s median FPPG was 1.89. That was used as a reference: a player had to maintain it for at least half a season to qualify.
- How many made it: 115 forwards reached that point at some point in their career.
- Midpoint of revelation: Age 24 years, 92 days, and 254 games played.
- Age window: Most stood out between 21.96 years and 26.32 years.
- Experience window: Most stood out between 143 and 402 games played in their career.
Quinton Byfield, C, Los Angeles Kings (23.1 years old, 1.50 FPPG in 260 games): It’s surprising that Byfield didn’t finish among the top 100 forwards last season. It wouldn’t be a big surprise, even a welcome one for the Kings, if he surpasses Anze Kopitar in fantasy points.
Kirby Dach, C, Montreal Canadiens (24.6 years old, 1.26 FPPG in 269 games): With his age and experience right in the range of historical revelations, the fact that Dach is on the promising Canadiens only increases the appeal.
Connor McMichael, C, Washington Capitals (24.6 years old, 1.56 FPPG in 237 games): After really improving in the first half of the season, McMichael slowed down enough not to finish among the top 100 forwards. He is unlikely to run out of energy in the same way again.
Mason McTavish, C, Anaheim Ducks (22.6 years old, 1.59 FPPG in 229 games): While Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier did not make this list due to the experience filter, it’s worth mentioning that they, along with McTavish, represent a youth movement that will completely take over the Ducks’ offense, as early as this season.
Matias Maccelli, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs (24.9 years old, 0.76 FPPG in 224 games): Maccelli has etched himself in memory with some standout passes, even if his overall results aren’t impressive. If he plays with Auston Matthews and establishes a good relationship, he could be great for fantasy managers who take a chance on him late.
Cole Perfetti, LW, Winnipeg Jets (23.7 years old, 1.45 FPPG in 222 games): Even if Jonathan Toews isn’t the answer to the Jets’ second-line problems, Perfetti should still receive an increase in power-play usage with the first unit.
Vasily Podkolzin, RW, Edmonton Oilers (24.2 years old, 1.11 FPPG in 219 games): Anyone with a chance to play regular shifts in this top six deserves serious consideration for your fantasy team. While the excitement may be revolving around Isaac Howard and Matt Savoie, it’s Podkolzin who has experience.
Barrett Hayton, C, Utah Mammoth (25.2 years old, 1.39 FPPG in 291 games): Hayton still holds a secure spot in a top-six role, and the Mammoth even acquired another quality winger for him with the trade for JJ Peterka.
Nils Hoglander, LW, Vancouver Canucks (24.7 years old, 0.83 FPPG in 293 games): Jake DeBrusk, Brock Boeser, Evander Kane and Conor Garland are the main wingers for the Canucks in theory. However, there could be some flexibility there, given the results of last season.
Anton Lundell, LW, Florida Panthers (23.9 years old, 1.52 FPPG in 295 games): With Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen, Lundell’s third line was the Panthers’ best line at times during the postseason. Given his outstanding results and the prolonged absence of Matthew Tkachuk, the “third” line could get enough minutes to be fantasy relevant.
Philip Tomasino, C, Pittsburgh Penguins (24.1 years old, 1.10 FPPG in 209 games): With the only reliable wingers on the Penguins, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, both being discussed as potential trade candidates in season, there is room for Tomasino to find a comfortable spot.
Simon Holmstrom, RW, New York Islanders (24.3 years old, 1.46 FPPG in 200 games): These breakout calculators keep pointing to Holmstrom, even though we haven’t seen much evidence yet. While he’s not secured on a projected scoring line, the path to get there isn’t too discouraging.
Kent Johnson, C, Columbus Blue Jackets (22.9 years old, 1.72 FPPG in 198 games): It could be argued that he already stood out and his inclusion here is a technicality because the 14 games he missed prevented him from finishing among the top 100 forwards last season.
William Eklund, LW, San Jose Sharks (22.9 years old, 1.66 FPPG in 174 games): What’s not to love about Eklund’s potential after seeing the interaction between him and Macklin Celebrini last season?
Luke Evangelista, RW, Nashville Predators (23.5 years old, 0.99 FPPG in 172 games): The Predators need Evangelista to take a big step forward, or their scoring lines will look very thin.
Tyson Foerster, RW, Philadelphia Flyers (23.6 years old, 1.49 FPPG in 166 games): Does anyone feel 100% sure about the Flyers’ top six besides Matvei Michkov, Travis Konecny, and Owen Tippett? Really not? That leaves up to six players competing for the other spots. Foerster, Trevor Zegras, and Bobby Brink have the highest fantasy potential of the remaining forwards.
Alex Laferriere, RW, Los Angeles Kings (23.9 years old, 1.51 FPPG in 158 games): The experience of playing on a scoring line all season should help boost Laferriere for next season.
Dmitri Voronkov, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets (25.0 years old, 1.64 FPPG in 148 games): He took us by surprise with a successful streak mid-season last season, but we are ready for Voronkov to belong to fantasy teams this season.
Kaapo Kakko, RW, Seattle Kraken (24.6 years old, 1.20 FPPG in 379 games): Kakko enjoyed a massive increase in minutes last season after the trade and has high expectations for his first full season with the Kraken.
Alexis Lafreniere, LW, New York Rangers (23.9 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 380 games): It’s now or never. Either Lafreniere has another level in his game for fantasy managers or he doesn’t. He arrives with a secure role on the first line and a lot of experience.
Together, this group represents the players most likely to go from “potential” to “proven” in fantasy, and the ones you’ll want to have early before the rest of your league catches up.Technically, they already stood outBecause these players have had a season among the top 100 forwards in fantasy points, it could be said that they already stood out. But they are still worth watching, as they tend to be at the center of our criteria windows and still have a mediocre career FPPG.Trevor Zegras, C, Philadelphia Flyers (24.5 years old, 1.30 FPPG in 268 games): This change of scenery comes with Zegras at the peak of his most productive years. Injuries played a significant role in his fading from the glory of his early career with the Ducks, so a healthy season at the top of a depth chart could catapult him back into the spotlight. But there is a non-zero probability that the Zegras we’ve had in the last two seasons is all we’re going to get, so there is a risk.
Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken (22.8 years old, 1.52 FPPG in 249 games): If you’re waiting to fill out your forward lines, Beniers is a phenomenal target after the hype. He has plenty of NHL experience, has clearly demonstrated his talent, and is still young enough to level up.
Fabian Zetterlund, RW, Ottawa Senators (26.0 years old, 1.64 FPPG in 247 games): While he may end up missing the cut on the top power-play unit, Zetterlund will play a lot of minutes with some talented linemates at five-on-five.
Marco Rossi, C, Minnesota Wild (24.0 years old, 1.61 FPPG in 185 games): If Rossi can somehow work his way onto the top power-play unit for the Wild, earning time with Kirill Kaprizov on the advantage, he could really take off this season.
The rest
These are the other players who met the criteria but don’t have an obvious path to relevant fantasy minutes. Don’t completely overlook them, though (I put Aliaksei Protas in this section last season). Just because the path isn’t obvious doesn’t mean someone won’t kick down the door. Who is the Protas equivalent this time around?
Parker Kelly, C, Colorado Avalanche (26.3 years old, 1.12 FPPG in 257 games)
Alexey Toropchenko, RW, St. Louis Blues (26.2 years old, 1.00 FPPG in 259 games)
Jack McBain, C, Utah Mammoth (25.7 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 241 games)
Connor Dewar, C, Pittsburgh Penguins (26.2 years old, 1.07 FPPG in 238 games)
Alexandre Texier, C, St. Louis Blues (26.0 years old, 0.98 FPPG in 232 games)
Cole Sillinger, C, Columbus Blue Jackets (22.3 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 286 games)
Ty Dellandrea, RW, San Jose Sharks (25.1 years old, 0.80 FPPG in 219 games)
Rasmus Kupari, C, Winnipeg Jets (25.5 years old, 0.70 FPPG in 217 games)
Paul Cotter, C, New Jersey Devils (25.8 years old, 1.11 FPPG in 217 games)
Peyton Krebs, C, Buffalo Sabres (24.6 years old, 0.94 FPPG in 296 games)
Alex Newhook, C, Montreal Canadiens (24.6 years old, 0.97 FPPG in 296 games)
Ryan McLeod, C, Buffalo Sabres (26.0 years old, 1.34 FPPG in 298 games)
Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa Senators (24.8 years old, 1.56 FPPG in 210 games)
Joe Veleno, C, Montreal Canadiens (25.6 years old, 0.94 FPPG in 306 games)
Arthur Kaliyev, RW, Ottawa Senators (24.2 years old, 0.77 FPPG in 202 games)
Morgan Frost, C, Calgary Flames (26.3 years old, 1.36 FPPG in 310 games)
Philipp Kurashev, LW, San Jose Sharks (25.9 years old, 0.74 FPPG in 317 games)
Jack Drury, C, Colorado Avalanche (25.6 years old, 0.91 FPPG in 186 games)
Jack Quinn, RW, Buffalo Sabres (24.0 years old, 1.19 FPPG in 178 games)
Yegor Chinakhov, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets (24.6 years old, 1.37 FPPG in 175 games)
Isac Lundestrom, C, Columbus Blue Jackets (25.8 years old, 0.81 FPPG in 337 games)
Ridly Greig, C, Ottawa Senators (23.1 years old, 1.32 FPPG in 170 games)
Lukas Reichel, LW, Chicago Blackhawks (23.3 years old, 0.79 FPPG in 169 games)
Alexander Holtz, RW, Vegas Golden Knights (23.6 years old, 0.67 FPPG in 163 games)
Nicholas Robertson, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs (24.0 years old, 1.07 FPPG in 156 games)
Jonatan Berggren, RW, Detroit Red Wings (25.1 years old, 0.79 FPPG in 154 games)
David Gustafsson, C, Winnipeg Jets (25.4 years old, 0.61 FPPG in 149 games)
Bobby Brink, RW, Philadelphia Flyers (24.2 years old, 1.14 FPPG in 146 games)
Martin Pospisil, LW, Calgary Flames (25.8 years old, 1.04 FPPG in 144 games)
Tye Kartye, LW, Seattle Kraken (24.4 years old, 0.91 FPPG in 140 games)
Juuso Parssinen, C, New York Rangers (24.6 years old, 1.01 FPPG in 137 games)
Jaret Anderson-Dolan, C, Winnipeg Jets (26.0 years old, 1.01 FPPG in 134 games)
Johnny Beecher, C, Boston Bruins (24.4 years old, 0.80 FPPG in 130 games)
Nils Aman, C, Vancouver Canucks (25.6 years old, 0.58 FPPG in 130 games)
