Crucial NFL Season: Players, Coaches, and Executives Under Scrutiny
July usually marks the beginning of two key moments in the NFL: training camps and the contract extension season. Although agreements are signed throughout the year, the desire of teams to secure key players before the start of camp and the franchise tag deadline can generate an increase in agreements this month. In recent weeks, players like T.J. Watt, Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Trey Smith have signed extensions, in addition to rookie contract negotiations for second-round picks. This flow of agreements and the start of training camps make me reflect on those who have the most to gain or lose based on their performance in the 2025 season. The NFL may seem like a league where everyone is one season, or even one bad performance, away from being relegated to the bench or fired, but it is also a league where a good streak can change things drastically. Kellen Moore, after being fired consecutively as offensive coordinator for the Cowboys and Chargers, found a position in Philadelphia, had a great season, and landed the head coach position with the Saints. Shane Waldron went from being offensive coordinator for the league’s most promising rookie quarterback last year to coordinator of the Jaguars’ passing game. Things change quickly. Let’s analyze some players, coaches, and executives who have more at stake than anyone this season. Some players will be rewarded no matter what: C.J. Stroud, barring something catastrophic, is on track for a record deal for a quarterback next season, regardless of whether he’s the fifth or twentieth best passer in the league. Other players have the opportunity to earn large sums of money in free agency, depending on what happens in 2025. Others have their jobs on the line. While no one wishes for anyone to be fired or miss a great opportunity, what happens this season could determine whether those things happen. Here are 15 people in the NFL who have a lot at stake in the next six months, in no particular order:J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy faces a unique situation for a quarterback on a rookie contract in the modern era. Most players selected in the first round assume the starting position on losing teams. The Vikings won 14 games last season. Most land in franchises where fans were frustrated with the previous quarterback. Sam Darnold may not have had the best performance in his brief stint with Minnesota, but he threw for 4,319 yards with 35 touchdowns. Certainly, there is a group of Vikings fans who did not want him to return, but he hardly disappointed in his only season under coach Kevin O’Connell. Most first-round quarterbacks also have a very clear path to the starting position. Was there a minimum hint of uncertainty about that opportunity this offseason? The Vikings, according to reports, were interested in bringing Darnold back on a one-year deal, where he would have competed with McCarthy for the starting position, but he ultimately signed with the Seahawks. They tried to re-sign Daniel Jones, who ended up signing with the Colts. There were rumors about Aaron Rodgers, although they seem more likely to have come from Rodgers’ camp than from the Minnesota front office. It would be absurd to suggest that the Vikings have been disappointed with McCarthy, simply because they have barely seen the 2024 first-round pick on the field, as he suffered a right meniscus tear after 17 pass attempts in last year’s first preseason game. They are not naive about the benefits of having a first-round pick on a rookie contract at the most important position in the sport, and although they signed Sam Howell, this is McCarthy’s job in 2025. If he plays as well as Darnold did last season and Minnesota returns to the playoffs, there will be no debate about the quarterback.If McCarthy disappoints, would the Vikings be more aggressive in bringing in a veteran to compete with the 22-year-old in 2026? Jones will be a free agent, and Darnold’s three-year contract with the Seahawks is essentially a one-year contract for $39 million. Kirk Cousins, who played well in O’Connell’s offense before suffering a right Achilles tendon rupture in the middle of the 2023 season, will likely be a free agent after parting ways with the Falcons. McCarthy would still be the favorite to start compared to those experienced passers, but he could have more at stake in his debut season than other inexperienced quarterbacks in the league.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Something went unnoticed this offseason: After Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry made 2024 the year of the running back, the only running backs who benefited were… Barkley and Henry, who signed new contracts with deserved raises. It was a quirk of timing that no other prominent running back had a significant contract at the same time; the 2021 draft class wasn’t very good, and the most expensive running back in free agency was Najee Harris, who signed a one-year deal for $5.3 million with the Chargers before suffering an eye injury in a fireworks accident earlier this month. The 2022 class was more fruitful, and although Kyren Williams (Rams) and James Cook (Bills) will likely sign extensions before the start of the season, the path to a significant deal is more uncertain for the running back who was the first to be selected. Hall had a bright start as a rookie, but a torn ACL ended his promising season after 80 carries. Hall returned to the field for the season opener in 2023 and had his first two carries go for 26 and 83 yards, but he hasn’t been able to sustain that kind of explosiveness. He has averaged 4.1 yards per carry and 54.5 rushing yards per game since that game. His 36.5% success rate since then ranks 39th out of 43 running backs with at least 200 carries over the last two seasons, and he has fumbled once every 70 carries, the sixth-highest rate among those runners. Runners can thrive without an average success rate, but if they don’t keep the offense going, they need to create big plays. Hall only has eight carries of 20 yards or more in 32 games since the first game of the 2023 season, which is one more than Gus Edwards, who achieved it with far fewer carries and is currently a free agent. Hall is a better player than Edwards and offers more as a receiver, but with former New York general manager Joe Douglas and coach Robert Saleh no longer on the team, the people who drafted him are not present and incentivized to give him a new contract. If he is an average or worse runner, the Jets will be better off spending their money elsewhere. That “other place” has been Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson, who have signed lucrative extensions this offseason. Hall wants to follow in their footsteps, but he will need to produce more. While the free agent signing of Justin Fields will absorb some of the running workload in the Jets’ new offense, quarterbacks who are part of the team’s running game change the numbers for the defense and normally create more efficient opportunities for the running backs behind them, something that both Henry and Barkley enjoyed last season. With three first-round picks and a second-round pick surrounding solid veteran guard John Simpson up front, the Jets should feel better about their offensive line than they have in years. If it’s ever going to happen for Hall, who looked like a budding superstar before the ACL tear, let’s hope it happens now.Brian Schottenheimer, Coach, Dallas Cowboys
I have argued that Ben Johnson of Chicago is the most hyped rookie coach without previous head coaching experience in decades. We may have to go back to Bill Belichick with the Browns in 1991 or Buddy Ryan with the Eagles in 1986 to find assistants who inspired comparable levels of certainty that they would become great head coaches, and those guys came from Super Bowl wins. At the other end of the spectrum is Schottenheimer, who is a decade removed from his last head coaching interview. Schottenheimer, 51, was a promising coaching candidate early in his career, when he was a successful assistant with the Chargers and Jets, but those rumors faded as he made his way around the league. Aside from a brief moment with the Seahawks during the first half of the 2020 season, when an offense led by Schottenheimer thrived by letting Russell Wilson cook, there have been no indications that he was on the radar as an NFL head coach. Well, things have a funny way of working out. After spending the last three seasons as an assistant to Mike McCarthy in Dallas, Schottenheimer went through the interview process and convinced team owner Jerry Jones, who promoted him. Some 15 years after being considered a possible head coaching candidate, he is now in charge of the Cowboys, who hope to return to the postseason after a 2024 season impacted by injuries and very disappointing. The move didn’t inspire much excitement, but the reality is we don’t know much about head coaching hires or their chances of success. Belichick was ousted from Cleveland and then became the most successful coach in league history in New England. Ryan had a 55-55-1 record in two stops. For every Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay, there’s an Adam Gase, Matt Nagy or Nathaniel Hackett, all promising offensive assistants who didn’t have much staying power or long-term success as head coaches. Schottenheimer could turn out to be a great coach. He could also be overwhelmed by the league’s highest-profile job. Jones has been more patient than his reputation suggests, giving his two previous coaches (McCarthy and Jason Garrett) a total of 14 seasons in charge, but both had higher profiles than Schottenheimer. Owners are as loyal as their options and, aside from Johnson, this was not a great crop of potential offensive coaches on the market. Would Jones be more aggressive than usual if Schottenheimer doesn’t impress this season and there are more exciting options available next spring?Riq Woolen, CB, Seattle Seahawks
What Woolen will appear in 2025? Will it be the type that seemed like one of the biggest bargains of the 2022 draft as a rookie? He intercepted six passes, the most in the league, finished third in the Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and allowed a passer rating of 48.7 in coverage. Former Seattle coach Pete Carroll took advantage of the 6-foot-4-inch player’s fifth-round physique to turn him into an impenetrable cornerback. Obvious comparisons were made to Richard Sherman, another large fifth-round pick who came to Carroll and will likely end up in the Hall of Fame someday. ¿Or will it be the guy who has been confusingly disappointing since then? Woolen’s numbers in coverage are good, but coaches have apparently become frustrated with his tackling and inconsistency. Since returning from a knee injury in 2023, he has been relegated to the bench at different times in each of the last two seasons, most recently in December for undisclosed disciplinary reasons. There are too many moments like what happened in the mid-season loss to the Rams, when he was caught looking into the backfield on a flood concept and wide receiver Demarcus Robinson ran past him for a game-winning touchdown in overtime. Cornerbacks with Woolen’s size and physical characteristics are not easy to find; he was the only 6-4 cornerback to start a game last season, and big defensive players who can play will always be in demand. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, Woolen will be in a position to earn more than $20 million per year in free agency if he has an impressive season.Braxton Jones, OT, Chicago Bears
Jones isn’t the first name mentioned when it comes to the Bears and how they’ve built their roster, but he might be the most vulnerable player in their lineup. Inheriting the starting left tackle position as a Day 3 pick during his rookie season, he was the first player selected after the 150th pick to start a full season at left tackle since 1986. He has managed to exceed expectations without ever convincing as a staple on the blind side of their quarterbacks. After making significant investments in nearly every other spot on the offense, the only position the Bears haven’t addressed in the last two offseasons is left tackle. Jones has missed 11 games in the last two seasons due to injury, but the only move Chicago made at tackle this offseason was using the No. 56 overall pick on Ozzy Trapilo, who was a right tackle during his final two college seasons after struggling on the left side earlier in his career. Likewise, Darnell Wright, a 2023 first-round pick, spent the vast majority of his college career playing right tackle, and while Wright has been Chicago’s best lineman in the last two seasons, moving him to the blind side would be a big adjustment. Jones dealt with an ankle injury during the summer, which left second-year backup lineman Kiran Amegadjie to get reps at left tackle during OTAs. If Jones can stay healthy and secure the left side of the line in the final season of his rookie contract, the wealth obtained by inconsistent (Dan Moore Jr.) or inexperienced (Jaylon Moore) left tackles in free agency suggests he would be in line for a deal of more than $20 million per season. The pending free agent could leverage the open market against a front office that has been generous with offers to key players. If Jones can’t stay healthy or loses the job to Amegadjie, Wright, or Trapilo while settling into a backup role, he’s likely looking at a fraction of that amount in free agency.Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
The two seasons of Young with the Panthers haven’t gone as anyone in Carolina expected or planned, but this could be a case of “all’s well that ends well.” The number 1 pick of 2023 was benched after two games last season, but recorded a QBR of 64.5 starting in Week 8 when he was reinstated as the starter, which placed him just ahead of Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray at 15th in the league. More importantly, Young simply looked better. He seemed rattled towards the end of the 2023 season and after those ugly first two starts a year ago, he simply felt more confident and comfortable within the offense. While he was still pressured at the second-highest rate in the league during that period, his QBR of 59.5 against pressure ranked him ninth. The 2023 offense also didn’t give him answers against pressure, either schematically or in terms of on-field help from his teammates. The 2024 offense gave him more solutions, and after he returned from the bench, it seemed he began to trust coach Dave Canales and reap the rewards of working within the offense. There were flashes of Young at his improvisational best, and instead of trying to find the answer that kept him from getting his head taken off, he was able to create big plays on the field. The touchdown that could have given the Panthers a lead in the final minute against the eventual Super Bowl champions, the Eagles, in Week 14 is a good example, as he rejected an open drag route on second and 4 that would have produced a first down to (correctly) throw a shot on a deep post against the quarters coverage. If it weren’t for a drop by receiver Xavier Legette, the Panthers could have made the play and the victory characteristic of Young as a professional. After another offseason dedicated to adding new receivers and playmakers to the offense, the Panthers enter 2025 hoping to gain some level of certainty about their quarterback situation. The coaching staff and general manager who traded for Young are no longer with the team, and although Canales surely joined the Panthers hoping to turn Young into a viable starter, Carolina will face a decision about his future after the season. Will they exercise an option for 2027 that would guarantee him a salary likely exceeding $27 million? Will they decline the option and make plans to move forward? Or could there be another offseason in which the Panthers insist that they just need to get the right players around their quarterback for him to thrive?Brian Daboll, coach, New York Giants
Two years ago, a pair of first-time head coaches in the NFC led their teams to unexpected playoff berths, but they have since gone in different directions. While Daboll and Kevin O’Connell, as expected, took a step back in their second season, O’Connell’s Vikings returned to the playoffs in their third season with a 14-win campaign, all while rotating a number of different quarterbacks due to injuries. The Giants decided to build around quarterback Daniel Jones, but they had a 9-25 record in the last two seasons, including a 3-13 mark with Jones before cutting him late last season.Did that unexpected run to the 2022 divisional round raise expectations too quickly? Daboll didn’t suddenly forget how to design open passing lanes or create conflicts for defenders with the quarterback’s running game. However, he was never able to extract the same level of play from Jones, who didn’t always have the kind of help a quarterback would want. The decision to sign Drew Lock as a possible replacement delivered predictably unsatisfactory results. Did the Giants get fooled by hiring a guy who was next to Josh Allen, as he was previously the Bills’ offensive coordinator, and then fell more in love with him because Jones recorded an interception rate (1.1%) that was an outlier in his career in 2022?
The clock is ticking for Daboll’s chances to prove he wasn’t a one-year mirage in New York. The Giants finally revamped their quarterback room, flirting with Matthew Stafford before signing Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. They used their first-round pick on Jaxson Dart, who represents the long-term prospect they presumably hoped to select in 2023 before the 2022 season of Jones’ career sent them in another direction. If Dart shows promise, can Daboll argue that his continued employment is best for his quarterback’s future? If not? He should be in demand as an offensive coordinator elsewhere, but his time in New York will likely come to an end.Terry Fontenot, GM, Atlanta Falcons
The chips have been placed in the center of the table. It’s a bit strange to talk about an 8-9 team going all-in, but when Fontenot traded a second-round pick and a 2026 first-round pick to the Rams to select James Pearce Jr., their second edge rusher in Round 1 of April’s draft, there was no turning back. With hybrid defender Jalon Walker also joining the Falcons, Fontenot made a massive bet.
