2025 NFL Season Trends: Weak Defenses, Offensive Stars, and Records at Stake
As the 2025 NFL season progresses towards Week 13, interesting trends emerge. We highlight teams with historically weak defenses and offensive players who could break records.
Bengals: A Defense in Freefall
The Bengals face the Ravens on Thanksgiving night. Currently, they allow the most points (32.7) and yards (415.8) per game in the league. The team has shown a worrying defensive fragility, evidenced by the 48-10 loss to the Vikings in Week 3. Since then, they have conceded more than 30 points on five occasions and more than 500 yards in three games. The DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) analysis reveals that the Bengals’ defense is the worst measured in 11 games since 1978. Statistics such as the 6.3 yards per play allowed (tied as the worst in the league) and only 10 recoveries, reflect their critical situation. Cincinnati’s defense ranks last in pass rush win rate and 27th in run stop win rate.
The absence of Trey Hendrickson, their best defensive player, and the injury of Cam Taylor-Britt, haven’t helped. The schedule doesn’t seem to improve much, with two games against Baltimore, including the Thanksgiving game, and matchups against Buffalo, Miami, Arizona, and Cleveland. If they continue to allow 30 points per game, they could be considered the “worst defense in history”.
Giants: Problems in the Ground Defense
The Giants’ run defense has been a major problem. After Week 4, they were already showing significant weaknesses. In Week 12, they allowed 219 yards and two touchdowns to Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. This positions them as the worst run defense measured by DVOA in 12 games in over 45 years. They have allowed 6.0 yards per carry, the highest figure in modern NFL history. They are currently ranked 29th in run stop win rate.
The Giants’ remaining schedule is more favorable, but DVOA will adjust this data. They face the Patriots, who are only 28th in rushing offense by DVOA, and the Raiders, who are in last place. However, the Giants’ run defense has room for improvement.Adam Schefter and Rex Ryan react to the Giants’ decision to fire defensive coordinator Shane Bowen.
Patriots: A Team with Underperforming Statistics
The Patriots are one of the most prominent stories in the NFL, leading the race for the AFC playoffs. However, the statistics suggest they are not the best team. DVOA places them in 17th place, with a below-average rating. Quarterback Drake Maye is a strong MVP candidate, and the Patriots rank fifth in passing offense by DVOA. But they are 28th in rushing offense, 27th in defense, and 17th in special teams. The Patriots’ easy schedule has influenced their results. They have had good luck in close games, but they have relied on explosive plays instead of consistent advancement.
The schedule becomes more complicated, with a game against the Bills and another against the Ravens. Recent injuries to key players could affect their performance. The Patriots will have to play without some of their best players, including left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams.Dan Orlovsky analyzes Bears quarterback Caleb Williams’ growth with Pat McAfee.
Bears: A DVOA-Questioned Success
With new coach Ben Johnson, the Bears have achieved an 8-3 record and lead the NFC North. However, DVOA suggests their success could be an illusion. Chicago ranks 22nd in DVOA and has the lowest DVOA ever measured for an 8-3 team. The team may be eighth in points per game (26.3), but DVOA places the offense closer to average at 14th. The defense ranks 25th and special teams units, 22nd. The Bears have won six games decided by less than a touchdown.
The Bears’ schedule is more difficult in the last six weeks, including the encounter with the Eagles and games against Green Bay, San Francisco, and Detroit. They are unlikely to win the Lombardi Trophy.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: On the Way to the Receiving Yards Record
Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having an exceptional season. He has already broken the Seahawks’ record for receiving yards in a season. With 1,313 yards in 11 games, he is on pace to reach 2,029 yards, surpassing Calvin Johnson’s record and becoming the first player to reach 2,000 yards in a season.
Needs 108.6 yards per game to set the record. The Seahawks face slightly above-average pass defenses. The matchup against the Colts will be interesting, as they have traditionally limited star receivers, although their defensive strategy has changed.
Christian McCaffrey: Chasing the Receiving Yards Record for Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in carries and receptions. With 785 receiving yards, he is on pace to break Marshall Faulk’s record for running backs (1,048 yards). He needs 52.8 yards per game to break Faulk’s record.
McCaffrey has slowed down his pace a bit in recent weeks. Three of the 49ers’ last five opponents are below average in DVOA against running backs as receivers.
