AFC: Chiefs, Ravens, and Texans in Trouble; Playoffs at Risk?

AFC Power Shift: Division Champions in Trouble

The AFC season has experienced a surprising shift in the balance of power, leaving several division champions with a lot of work to do to secure a postseason spot. Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, and Buffalo Bills, who led their divisions last season, now face significant challenges. In Week 12, none of the mentioned teams lead their division, and the Chiefs, Ravens, and Texans share a disappointing 5-5 record, which would leave them out of the playoffs if the season ended today.

“We’re just barely afloat,” commented Ravens coach John Harbaugh, reflecting on his team’s difficult situation.

John Harbaugh

Meanwhile, teams like the New England Patriots, led by their new quarterback Drake Maye, the Denver Broncos, with their fearsome pass rush, and the Indianapolis Colts, who rely on Jonathan Taylor, the NFL’s most productive running back, are thriving in the AFC. With seven weeks remaining, Kansas City, Baltimore, and Houston are in survival mode. According to research data, only 9% of teams that start a season with a 5-5 or worse record manage to make the playoffs.

“We know what we need to improve and we need to do it,” said Chiefs coach Andy Reid, highlighting the need for urgency.

Andy Reid

The Ravens, with a four-game winning streak, have a 63.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to the Football Power Index. The Chiefs, on the other hand, with their worst start since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback in 2018, have a 53.8% chance. The Texans, with a 23.4% chance, face the biggest challenge. However, Houston coach DeMeco Ryans emphasizes the importance of winning games over positions in the standings.

“What matters is winning,” Ryans stated, focusing on the team’s performance.

DeMeco Ryans

Analysis of the Struggling Teams

Here’s a more detailed analysis of the teams looking to come back:

Baltimore Ravens

Division Win Possibilities: 61%

Playoff chances: 63.9%

Remaining calendar difficulty: 22º

What is the main reason for the 5-5 record?The Ravens’ defense struggled against high-level competition early in the season. However, the defense has improved noticeably, allowing fewer than 20 points in each of their last four victories.

What do they need to do to reach the playoffs?

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens must secure victories in the AFC North. Four of their last six games are against the Steelers and the Bengals. Jackson needs to break his two-game streak, where he has had a low completion percentage.

What is the biggest obstacle to reaching the postseason?

The Ravens’ offensive line. The difficulty in winning at the line is the main reason why Baltimore has gone from being the best offense in the NFL’s red zone last year to 28th this season. The Ravens have struggled to throw the ball in the red zone, where Jackson has been sacked seven times. They have also had difficulty scoring touchdowns with running back Derrick Henry.

Kansas City Chiefs

Division Win Possibilities: 8.9%

Playoff chances: 53.8%

Remaining calendar difficulty: 21st

What is the main reason for the 5-5 record?Unlike last season, the Chiefs have not been able to win in close games, losing all five. In addition, they commit too many penalties.

What do they need to do to reach the playoffs?

Mahomes needs to improve his performance in the last seven games, especially in long passes. The defense must generate more turnovers.

What is the biggest obstacle to reaching the postseason?

The Chiefs can’t afford to lose more games against AFC teams. Their path to the playoffs includes winning against the Texans, Chargers, Titans, and Raiders.

Houston Texans

Chances of winning the division: 4.5%

Playoff chances: 23.4%

Remaining calendar difficulty: 3rdWhat is the main reason for the 5-5 record?The offense, which averages 20.8 points per game. The defense has allowed more than 20 points in a game only once in the losses.

What do they need to do to reach the playoffs?

The offense needs to improve its performance. If Houston could average close to what it scores in victories (28 points), it could become one of the strongest teams in the NFL.What is the biggest obstacle to reaching the postseason?Their schedule. The Texans will face the Bills without Stroud, who will miss his third game. They will also face the Colts twice, as well as the Chargers and the Chiefs. Making the playoffs will be a challenge if the Texans’ offense remains inconsistent.