Which NBA teams will break the title drought? Analysis of the candidates
The NBA, known for its dynasties, has historically been restrictive in terms of incorporating new champions. Since 1980, only 11 different franchises have won titles, and only six of them did so for the first time. However, in recent years, the power structure in the league seems to be changing. Since the 2019 season, seven different teams have lifted the Larry O’Brien trophy in seven consecutive seasons, an unprecedented milestone in NBA history. This pattern opens the door to hope for the 10 franchises still seeking their first ring.To determine which teams have the best chance of breaking this streak, we have analyzed the probabilities of each franchise over the next six years. This analysis is based on preseason probabilities since 1985, the average age of each squad, and the performance of their best players.
Our simulations suggest that there is a 75% probability that at least one of these ten teams will win a title before 2031. Below, we will explore the teams with the greatest chances of making history.Teams Analysis
Orlando Magic
Probability of being the next champion: 24.0%Average age of the team: 25.6 years old (the youngest)Title odds for 2025-26: +1800 (4.2% implied probability)Best historical result: NBA Finals (1995, 2009) The Magic, with young prospects like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, seem poised to take the next step. Despite some key departures, the youth and talent of their roster position them as strong contenders.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Probability of being the next champion: 20.5%Average age of the squad: 29.0 years old (22nd)Title odds for 2025-26: +1600 (4.7% implied probability)Best historical result: Western Conference Finals (2004, 2024, 2025) Although the Timberwolves have good odds, the age of their core could be a factor against them. With Anthony Edwards as the main star, the team has been close to making a breakthrough, but time will tell if they can overcome the barriers.LA Clippers
Probability of being the next champion: 15.5%Average age of the team: 33.2 years old (30th)Title odds for 2025-26: +1600 (4.7% implied probability)Best historical result: Western Conference Finals (2021) The Clippers, despite the challenges and controversy, still have a considerable opportunity. With key players like Kawhi Leonard, the team seeks to break the barrier, although the age of the squad could be a limiting factor.Indiana Pacers
Probability of being the next champion: 13.1%Average age of the squad: 27.5 years old (13th)Title Odds for 2025-26: +8000 (1.0% implied probability)Best historical result: NBA Finals (2000, 2025) Tyrese Haliburton’s injury in the 2025 Finals has impacted the Pacers’ aspirations. Despite this, the team has a unique path to the championship, but uncertainty is high.Memphis Grizzlies
Probability of being the next champion: 6.9%Average age of the squad: 27.1 years old (11th)Title odds for 2025-26: +10000 (0.8% implied probability)Best historical result: Western Conference Finals (2013) The Grizzlies, after an improved season, have seen their chances reduced due to strategic decisions. The team’s future depends on rebuilding around Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.Phoenix Suns
Probability of being the next champion: 5.3%Average age of the squad: 27.8 years old (16th)Title odds for 2025-26: +50000 (0.2% implied probability)Best historical result: NBA Finals (1976, 1993, 2021) The Suns have lost championship potential due to various factors. With players like Devin Booker, Jalen Green, and Dillon Brooks, the team has a long way to go.New Orleans Pelicans
Probability of being the next champion: 4.6%Average age of the squad: 26.1 years old (5th)Title odds for 2025-26: +50000 (0.2% implied probability)Best historical result: Western Conference Semifinals (2008, 2018) The Pelicans are an unknown on this list, with uncertainty in their roster. With Zion Williamson and other key players, their future is difficult to predict.Brooklyn Nets
Probability of being the next champion: 4.4%Average age of the squad: 25.9 years old (3rd)Title odds for 2025-26: +100000 (0.1% implied probability)Best historical result: NBA Finals (1972, 2002, 2003) The Nets have made significant moves to reinforce their team. With a young roster, they have the opportunity to build a winning team, although the odds are not in their favor.Charlotte Hornets
Probability of being the next champion: 2.9%Average age of the squad: 26.4 years old (7th)Title odds for 2025-26: +100000 (0.1% implied probability)Best historical result: Eastern Conference Semifinals (1993, 1998, 2001, 2002) The Hornets, with young talents, need to demonstrate their potential. Their main goal is to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.Utah Jazz
Probability of being the next champion: 2.9%Average age of the squad: 27.8 years old (15th)Title odds for 2025-26: +100000 (0.1% implied probability)Best historical result: NBA Finals (1997, 1998) The Jazz are in the process of rebuilding. With Lauri Markkanen and Ace Bailey, the team seeks to recover and advance in the standings.
