The Era of Parity in the NBA: Analysis of Offseason Moves
Parity has become a distinguishing feature of the current NBA. With the recent success of the Oklahoma City Thunder, the league has seen seven different champions in the last seven years, an unprecedented streak in NBA history. Although the young core of the Thunder has a great opportunity to consolidate their victory into a dynasty, other teams have worked hard during the summer to prevent this from happening. Although the offseason was quieter than usual due to the lack of spectacular moves, many teams remodeled their rosters significantly. The Houston Rockets invested in Kevin Durant in a trade with the Phoenix Suns, who received Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks as part of the deal. The Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks lost key veterans and added new talent. The Orlando Magic bet on Desmond Bane, which contributed to their rise in the title odds. The Los Angeles Clippers made interesting moves. And the Portland Trail Blazers generated headlines by reacquiring Damian Lillard, although fans will have to wait a season to see him play, as an injury will keep him out until the 2026-27 season. To evaluate these moves, we projected how the arrival or departure of a player could affect a team’s ranking, using their established Wins Above Replacement (WAR) level estimated by RAPTOR, and then identified the five teams that gained the most value and the five that lost the most. The value of contracts and salaries was not taken into account, but adjustments were made for rookies who could have an immediate impact, such as Cooper Flagg, and for injuries to newcomers, such as Lillard. Free agent departures were also considered. Finally, it was observed how much value was lost due to injuries that presumably ended the season, of players like Tyrese Haliburton, although this was not included in the calculations for teams that appeared on any list. So, which teams improved their chances of competing? Which ones lost a lot? And which ones might regret a quiet offseason? Let’s review the most important talent transfers of the last few months and how they could influence the next season.Teams That Gained the Most Value
1. Los Angeles Clippers
WAR added: +13.8 | WAR lost: -5.7 (+8.1) Key additions: Chris Paul, Brook Lopez, Bradley Beal, John Collins Main losses: Norman Powell, Ben Simmons, Amir Coffey The Clippers said goodbye to Powell, who was coming off the best season of his career, via a three-team trade in July. However, for the most part, they didn’t lose much talent from a core that was already very good. They also added a quartet of players with a recent history of producing at least 2.5 wins per season: the return of CP3, a stable veteran with Lopez, and a couple of reclamation projects with Beal and Collins.2. Houston Rockets
WAR added: +12.6 | WAR lost: -7.5 (+5.1) Main additions: Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Okogie, Clint Capela Main losses: Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Cam Whitmore, Jock Landale Season-ending injury loss: -6.3 (Fred VanVleet) The Rockets acquired the best player who changed teams this offseason, Durant, who, even at 36 years old and with a diminished supporting cast in Phoenix, averaged 26.6 points last season with his characteristic efficiency. They will need him to keep producing after the departures that helped bring KD to Houston (Green and Brooks), and with the recent injury of VanVleet, who was supposed to play an important role in the Rockets’ contention.3. Dallas Mavericks
WAR added: +6.3 | WAR lost: -2.5 (+3.8) Main additions: Cooper Flagg, D’Angelo Russell Main losses: Spencer Dinwiddie, Kai Jones There’s much more behind Dallas’ numbers in 2024-25 than meets the eye. For one thing, the Mavericks’ net rating last season included several distinct team-building eras, from before the infamous Luka Dončić trade to the ephemeral Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis era, including a final stretch with both stars injured. Now Davis is back and Irving is expected to return at some point this season, and their established net WAR (+3.8) is boosted by the assumed value of Flagg (+3.6), this year’s first draft pick. The Mavs also added Russell, who was more useful in 2023-24 than in 2024-25. And they didn’t lose much talent, so it shouldn’t be a boring season in Dallas.4. Brooklyn Nets
WAR added: +10.0 | WAR lost: -7.0 (+3.0) Main additions: Michael Porter Jr., Haywood Highsmith, Terance Mann, Egor Demin Main losses: Cameron Johnson, D’Angelo Russell The Nets were bad last season, winning only 26 games, their fewest since 2016-17, and they will probably be bad again. However, they acquired the most productive player recently (plus an unprotected first-round pick) in the trade that sent Johnson to Denver in July. It was a salary cap-driven move for the Nuggets, but the Nets got a player like Porter, who is younger and produced almost twice the WAR (11.7 vs. 6.3) in the last two seasons, which helped boost their net WAR (+3.0) here.5. Charlotte Hornets
WAR added: +7.7 | WAR lost: -5.7 (+2.0) Main additions: Collin Sexton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kon Knueppel, Mason Plumlee, Pat Connaughton Main losses: Mark Williams, Josh Okogie, Jusuf Nurkić, Seth Curry At least the Hornets can’t be accused of trying to reuse the same group and expect different results. Aside from the core of Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball, and Brandon Miller, General Manager Jeff Peterson has revamped much of the rest of a roster that won only 19 games a year ago, adding Sexton from Utah and Dinwiddie from Dallas, as well as selecting Knueppel from Duke in the fourth overall spot. Assuming it’s easier to improve a bad team than a good one, and that, like the Nets, the Hornets probably won’t be good in 2025-26, they can at least aspire to be better than they were.Who isn’t here (and why)?
The Orlando Magic are a team generating excitement heading into this season, climbing to seventh place in the NBA title odds in the preseason, so why are they ranked 17th in net WAR despite adding Bane (along with former Suns point guard Tyus Jones)? They also had to give up Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony, who combined for 4.5 WAR in Orlando last year, to get Bane, who was worth 6.3 WAR, which reduced some of the net value of the deal in terms of pure basketball. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Atlanta Hawks made big moves to add talent, even raiding each other’s rosters in some cases, with KCP and Ty Jerome joining the Grizz, and Porziņģis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard going to the Hawks. But both teams also lost almost the same amount, as Bane and Kennard left Memphis and Caris LeVert and Capela departed from Atlanta. That hurts the net talent ranking of both teams. And finally, the Portland Trail Blazers would be higher up by adding Lillard to accompany Jrue Holiday, but Dame’s return to the Blazers is delayed due to his Achilles tendon injury.Teams That Lost the Most Value
30. Boston Celtics
WAR added: +4.9 | WAR lost: -16.5 (-11.6) Key additions: Anfernee Simons, Chris Boucher, Josh Minott Key losses: Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Holiday, Luke Kornet, Al Horford Season-ending injury loss: 10.7 (Jayson Tatum) After winning the 2024 NBA championship and spending most of last season on the list of top title contenders, it looks like it will be a very different year in Boston. For one thing, Tatum, the regular season WAR leader, suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in May, and although he does not rule out a return from what was originally considered a season-ending injury, he would likely miss most of the regular season, even if he managed to return early. Add to that the fact that Boston said goodbye to many of the main contributors to their title run (Porziņģis, Holiday and Horford), in addition to the highly effective role player Kornet, who signed with the Spurs in July, and the Celtics are looking at a much diminished group leading the way in 2025-26.29. Phoenix Suns
WAR added: +9.3 | WAR lost: -16.4 (-7.1) Key additions: Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams, Jared Butler, Khaman Maluach Key losses: Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Tyus Jones, Cody Martin, Monte Morris, Mason Plumlee, Bol Bol This type of offseason was necessary for Phoenix to press the reset button and leave behind the failed Big Three experiment with Durant, Beal, and Devin Booker, which produced no playoff wins before being dismantled. But the Suns still saw an exodus of talent, led by, but not limited to, KD’s move to Houston. They got some interesting players in that historic seven-team trade, including Green and Brooks, who combined for 7.3 WAR last season. But there’s no doubt that the post-Durant transition in Phoenix will be painful.28. Milwaukee Bucks
WAR added: +5.5 | WAR lost: -11.1 (-5.6)Key additions: Myles Turner, Gary Harris, Cole Anthony
Key losses: Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton The Bucks arrive here with the dissolution of the Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo alliance after a disappointing two-year run, during which they won only three playoff games in a couple of first-round exits, with both stars struggling to stay healthy at different times. But, say what you will, Lillard was productive in the two regular seasons in Milwaukee, accumulating a total of 13.7 WAR between 2023-24 and 2024-25. Now, the Bucks will move forward with Turner, whom they signed to a four-year, $107 million contract with the hope that he will replicate his solid averages of 17 points and 7 rebounds from the last three seasons alongside Giannis in a new partnership.27. Cleveland CavaliersWAR added: +2.6 | WAR lost: -8.0 (-5.4)Key additions: Larry Nance Jr., Lonzo Ball
Key losses: Ty Jerome, Isaac Okoro, Javonte Green A year after going from 48 wins to nearly a franchise-record 64, the Cavs are once again among the title favorites. But, like many contenders in the recent NBA salary cap era, they had to say goodbye to some of their best role players, namely Jerome, who was ridiculously effective (+5.3 RAPTOR) in 20 minutes per game last season, as well as Okoro, who provided them with a steady dose of 3-and-D efficiency for years before being traded to the Bulls for Ball in July. If Ball were ever to stay healthy enough to play a full season, he could single-handedly erase the Cavs’ offseason deficit, making him a fascinating acquisition for a team with its sights set on a championship. But for now, Cleveland has lost a lot of proven talent from last year.26. Minnesota Timberwolves
WAR added: +0.4 | WAR lost: -3.7 (-3.3)Key additions: Joan Beringer
Main losses: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Josh Minott The T-Wolves entered the summer with much uncertainty about which supporting players would return, and in that sense, it could be said that they did the best they could (without entering the second apron) by re-signing Julius Randle and Naz Reid. But it did come at the cost of losing Alexander-Walker, who had 7.1 total WAR, and with whom the team averaged 4.0 net points per 100 possessions on the court versus off, in the last two seasons. It’s hardly a momentous loss, but it speaks to the depth that can be a victim of the luxury tax in the current NBA. NBA Team Standings of the 30 Teams
