Is the End of Dynasties in the NBA? A New Chapter in the League
The NBA, historically, has been built on dynasties. Legendary teams like Bill Russell’s Boston Celtics dominated the 1960s, followed by the rivalry between Larry Bird and Magic Johnson in the 80s. The Chicago Bulls, the Lakers, and the San Antonio Spurs marked eras in the 90s and 2000s. In the 2010s, LeBron James, with both the Miami Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers, along with the Golden State Warriors led by Stephen Curry, also left their mark. However, since the Warriors won consecutive titles in 2017 and 2018, the league has seen seven different champions lift the Larry O’Brien trophy, the period of greatest parity in NBA history. In that time, there were 11 different finalists, another league record. Furthermore, in the last six postseasons, the defending champion has failed to reach the conference finals. The last time the NBA experienced similar parity was in the late 70s. Currently, the league is at a point where all 30 franchises, with proper management, can aspire to the championship, a goal that commissioner Adam Silver has reiterated in the latest collective bargaining agreements.The key question is whether this new system has fundamentally changed the way the league and its teams operate. Have dynasties come to an end after decades of dominance in the sport? Or are we on the verge of the next one?“I think parity of opportunity is good for the league,” Silver said last month. “When more teams have a real chance to win a championship, the competition on the court is more attractive and fans in more markets get involved.”
Adam Silver, NBA Commissioner
Restrictive salary limits have already forced high-spending teams to rethink their strategies. The Boston Celtics, who were close to having the first NBA roster worth $500 million, reduced hundreds of millions of dollars from next season’s payroll by trading Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Cleveland Cavaliers, the only team above the second salary cap, lost Ty Jerome in free agency. The Denver Nuggets were forced to trade their only available first-round pick, along with Michael Porter Jr., to get Cameron Johnson. These are the decisions that Silver and the league expected when creating the current rules, which has put an emphasis on every move and every dollar.Errors in the Template Can Ruin a DynastyFor a team to defy the current trend and become a potential dynasty, it’s not just about accumulating talent, which is already difficult. It also requires avoiding negative or overvalued contracts. The system, more than ever, prioritizes flexibility and punishes franchises that sacrifice it in pursuit of a title.“Our system will allow successful teams to stay together, but those teams will have to make more difficult decisions,” Silver said.
Adam Silver, NBA Commissioner
The Clippers did not re-sign Paul George, allowing him to become the first All-Star to switch teams as an unrestricted free agent since the Clippers signed Kawhi Leonard five years prior. George signed a four-year, $212 million maximum contract with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Clippers focused on flexibility over retaining a talented but declining star. The 76ers, on the other hand, only got 41 games of mediocre production from George and are also dealing with the uncertainty of another player on a maximum contract, center Joel Embiid. This has led other teams to prioritize depth. The New York Knicks have built a starting five with Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Cavaliers hope that their core of Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen, all under 30 years old, can stay together. The Orlando Magic, for their part, bet big by acquiring Desmond Bane in the hopes of creating a quartet with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs.“You have to get it right with every decision”, said a scout from the Western Conference. “Now, you have to look at things not in a one-year period, but in a three-year period. Literally, you can’t go wrong with anything. This puts pressure on the organization to think differently and intelligently to make sure they are in the best position to make the right decisions”.
Western Conference Scout
No team is better positioned to navigate the league’s financial landscape than the reigning champions, the Thunder. Oklahoma City signed its three stars, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, to massive contract extensions. The Thunder also surrounded them with veterans on sensible contracts and players on rookie contracts, which will allow them to avoid the repeater tax until the end of the decade.The League’s Talent and its Dispersion Have Never Been GreaterAfter a surprising rise to second place in the West last season, the Houston Rockets added Kevin Durant. The Lakers believe they have done the same after overhauling their roster around Luka Doncic and James. The Warriors will also do so once they resolve Jonathan Kuminga’s restricted free agency. This highlights the talent across the league, particularly in the Western Conference, which only increases the challenge of repeating. Three of the 15 players selected for last season’s All-NBA teams (James, Curry, and James Harden) are 35 or older, including James, who is the league’s oldest player at 40.“Our goal isn’t to win the East. The goal is to win a championship,” said Magic team president Jeff Weltman after the deal for Bane. “And the first step in doing that is to advance our team and get ourselves in that conversation. I view us as a factor now.”
Jeff Weltman, Magic team president
Could a dynasty arise again?
This leaves us with two questions: Will the league remain in this state of parity? And, if so, is that a good thing? The NBA’s parity era in the late 1970s coincided with the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, which introduced four new teams and a lot of new talent into the league. Recent years have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has contributed to the salary cap remaining virtually flat for three seasons. Player contracts, meanwhile, continued to increase at their standard of 5% to 8% each year, causing a cascading effect on team finances. Fiscal limits will grow at the same rate as the salary cap, allowing for a wider margin for teams to operate. And there are several new and flexible tools, such as the mid-level exception to acquire players through transfers. The league is embracing the player movement that currently exists. And if there’s a choice between two, parity prevails over a few teams that stay on top for years. “The reality is that a certain level of player movement is healthy for creating a true 30-team league,” Silver said. What is undeniable is that Silver’s ultimate goal, championship opportunity parity, could have arrived.“It’s too early to make any kind of proclamation,” Silver said, “but the fact that we’ve had seven different champions in the last seven years is a good indication that we’re headed in the right direction.”
Adam Silver, NBA Commissioner
