NBA: A million per game? Astronomical salaries and the future.

NBA Stars’ Salaries to Reach New Heights: A Million Dollars Per Game?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, after agreeing to a four-year supermax extension, not only celebrated a millionaire contract. The Most Valuable Player (MVP) of the NBA and the Finals was close to an unprecedented financial milestone. In the 2030-31 season, the last year of Gilgeous-Alexander’s new agreement, he is projected to earn 79 million dollars, which is equivalent to more than 963,000 dollars per game. This brings him close to the first NBA contract valued at one million dollars per game. This milestone follows the trend of the NBA’s wealthiest players, who continue to increase their earnings. History reminds us that when MLB pitcher Nolan Ryan signed the first million-dollar-a-year contract in 1979, it was front-page sports news.

Key Factors in Salary Increase

The increase in NBA stars’ salaries is due to two main factors: the supermax extension (officially, the “designated veteran extension”) and the increase in the salary cap. The creation of supermax contracts in 2017, through the new collective bargaining agreement, allowed players with seven or eight years in the league, who have remained on the same team during their contract and meet certain award criteria, to sign extensions that start at 35% of the salary cap. Gilgeous-Alexander is the 14th player to sign this type of agreement. The “basketball inflation” has further driven up salaries. A decade ago, the salary cap was $63 million, equivalent to about $85 million today, considering general inflation. However, the salary cap for the 2024-25 season reached $141 million, a significant increase. These factors have accelerated the growth of higher salaries. In addition, the league’s new television deal, which came into effect last season, will inject even more money. The 11-year contract with television networks amounts to 76 billion dollars, almost 7 billion per season, surpassing the 24 billion dollars of the previous agreement. This will have a profound impact on the salary cap and, therefore, on supermax extensions.

To avoid an excessive increase, the new collective bargaining agreement includes “softening the cap” measures, with maximum increases of 10% per season. The salary cap will increase by 10% next season, raising the initial supermax salary in the same proportion. Although a 7% increase is projected for 2026-27, due to the decrease in local television revenue, the long-term effect will remain significant.

The impact on supermax salaries is notable. When Stephen Curry signed the first supermax in the 2017-18 season, with a salary cap of $99 million, his contract started at 34.7 million. The supermax value took five years to exceed 40 million, and the pace accelerated as the salary cap grew. Higher starting salaries imply greater increases in supermax contracts. The SGA contract, for example, will start at $63.7 million in 2027-28 and rise to $79 million in the fourth year. Other players who sign a supermax after him could exceed $82 million, or a million per game, at the end of their agreements.

Candidates to Reach the Million by Party

Players who sign supermax extensions after Gilgeous-Alexander, drafted in 2018, are the main candidates to reach a million dollars per game. From the 2019 draft class, Ja Morant is the only one who has been selected for an All-NBA team. However, the 2020 class presents two outstanding candidates: Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton. Edwards, with two consecutive selections for the All-NBA second team, could sign a supermax in the summer of 2027, worth up to 345 million dollars for four years, exceeding 82 million in his second season.

Additionally, Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley, from the 2021 class, were selected for their first All-NBA teams last season. Other promising players from that class include Scottie Barnes, Alperen Sengun, and Franz Wagner. It is likely that the players from this generation who qualify for the supermax will exceed a million dollars per game.

Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty ImagesRecently drafted players, such as Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero (2022 class), and Victor Wembanyama and Amen Thompson (2023 class), could sign contracts worth over $100 million annually. Experienced veterans, by signing shorter extensions, could also earn nine-figure incomes annually, including Gilgeous-Alexander, when he signs his next extension after his supermax ends in 2031. Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns agreed to a new two-year extension for up to $145 million, with an annual value exceeding SGA’s supermax.

Comparison with Other Leagues

While a player earning a million dollars per game is unprecedented in basketball, other sports have already surpassed that figure. MLB pitchers, such as Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, began to exceed $35 million per season, or more than a million per game, in approximately 32 starts. The best basketball players are worth around 20 wins per season, which equates to a win every four games. Similarly, the best baseball pitchers are worth approximately eight wins above replacement per year, or the same proportion of one in four.

In the NFL, 84 players impact the salary cap by $17 million or more this season, meaning they will earn at least a million dollars per game. The league’s elite quarterbacks earn almost $3 million per game, which makes sense given their influence on game outcomes and the importance of each game in a shorter schedule. Elite football players recruited by the Saudi Pro League with exorbitant sums are the richest. Cristiano Ronaldo is rumored to earn around $200 million a year. The NBA stands out for its combination of pay-per-game and volume. MLB players and NFL stars play only a fraction of the games that their NBA counterparts do, so although they earn more per game, their total compensation is less than that of the NBA’s supermax elite. Next season, 15 NBA players will have an impact on the salary cap of $50 million or more. The NFL, NHL, and MLB have only two combined contracts of this type: Juan Soto of the New York Mets and Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys.

Possible Effects in the NBA

The increase in star salaries could generate several effects in the NBA. Workload management could be a more controversial issue, with less tolerance for highly compensated players missing games. Criticism could be inevitable: “You earn more than a million dollars tonight and you don’t even play?” Higher salaries could influence players’ decisions. Stars might consider factors other than money when making career choices. As the figures continue to rise, is there any tangible difference in the quality of life between earning $75 million a year and $85 million? Stars might be more inclined to test the free agent market rather than re-sign with the team offering the supermax. Others might opt to sign for less than the maximum possible amount to save money for teammates who otherwise wouldn’t be able to fit under the second apron. Although player salaries remain a constant percentage of the salary cap, the figures could be so high that they spark new discussions about whether NBA stars are overpaid. However, SGA is already worth nine figures per season, even before his contract reaches its maximum.

Will Superstars Be Worth a Million Dollars Per Game?

Last season, NBA teams spent $5.65 billion, according to Spotrac data, between salaries and luxury taxes. There are 1,230 wins available in the regular season, which equates to $4.6 million per win. Multiplying that sum by Gilgeous-Alexander’s estimated value of 20.9 wins yields $96 million in regular season value. This does not include SGA’s impact on the championship, the increase in ticket and merchandise sales for his team, or the increase in the value of the Oklahoma City franchise. In 2014, when LeBron James returned to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Forbes estimated that “he immediately raised the value of the Cavaliers franchise by at least 100 to 150 million dollars.” That figure would surely be higher now after another decade of inflation. The best players in the league have signed for discounts, in relation to their production, and that will continue to be true at $1 million per game or more. In 2016, Kevin Pelton calculated that “in a world without limits on player salaries, the Cavaliers could easily justify offering James $100 million a year”. The same calculation in 2025 would put the value of the main stars above 150 million dollars a year, or almost double the threshold of 1 million dollars per game. For the players who change the course of the franchises, this milestone will not only be an achievement, but a bargain.