The 2025-26 NBA season is approaching, although it’s still a while before serious postseason conversations dominate the atmosphere. However, in a league known for superstar changes, surprises, and playoff upsets, it’s clear that anything can happen from October to April.
Injuries will play a crucial role in the Eastern Conference, as recent contenders like the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers could fall in the standings due to the impact of their leaders’ absences.
In the competitive Western Conference, the positions seem less defined. Last season, the playoff standings weren’t decided until the last day of the regular season. And this season, after significant moves, especially the arrival of Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets, another close battle for qualification is expected.
Here’s an analysis of how our NBA experts predict the win-loss records for the league’s 30 teams.
Note: The NBA 2025-26 summer forecast continues Thursday with predictions for conference champions and finals. On Tuesday, we revealed our picks for the players who will win the league’s most important awards, including MVP, DPOY, and more.
The Cavaliers retain 93% of the minutes played by the team that won 64 games last season, made two defensive moves in the preseason (adding Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr.), and saw two important conference rivals lose their stars (Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton) to season-ending injuries.
However, looking ahead to the season, the Cavs and stars Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland are only slightly favored on ESPN BET to win the East over the Knicks. The Cavs beat the Knicks led by Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns four times last season and won 13 more games. Without a doubt, New York is formidable, having reached the conference finals and added some depth improvements with Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele in economic deals.
But when people refer to the East as “wide open” – a sentiment that will surely be heard in the coming months – it’s coded language for a lack of confidence in the Cavs. It’s not unreasonable; they haven’t lived up to expectations in the playoffs in consecutive seasons, and their core remains largely the same, even if injuries played a role on both occasions.
This is reflected in our projections; the Cavs are at the top, but it’s more a matter of default than demand. In fact, in general, there isn’t much confidence in the relative strength of the East. Only three Eastern teams are projected to win more than 47 games. This seems impossible, as last season there were five that finished above that mark, but especially because, inherently, the elite teams of the East will end up with the easiest schedules.
But the Cavs, Knicks, and Magic have flaws and fragility. There is a defined window for a team like Orlando, fresh off the aggressive move to add Desmond Bane, to beat the teams above. The same could be said of the Hawks after their own aggressive move to get Kristaps Porzingis from the Celtics and add Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The panel sees both making a move in the East, but still not surpassing the teams above.
The play-in group
Milwaukee Bucks: 46-36
Boston Celtics: 43-39
Philadelphia 76ers: 40-42
Miami Heat: 39-43
Indiana Pacers: 39-43
If the landscape of the East has changed entering this season, it is largely due to injuries and departures of stars. Three Achilles tears during last season’s playoffs have drastically changed the trajectory of the Bucks, who parted ways with Damian Lillard after his Achilles tear in the first round; the Celtics, who dismantled their championship core after Tatum suffered the same injury in the second round; and the Pacers, whose bright future was put on hold when Haliburton tore his Achilles during the NBA Finals. That’s why those three teams, all recent conference winners, are projected to be in the middle of the pack, fighting to avoid the play-in tournament.
The Heat won the Eastern Finals two years ago, but after trading Jimmy Butler III, it’s unclear if they can defy expectations once again. Philadelphia could be the most difficult team to project in the conference, considering the uncertainty surrounding Joel Embiid’s health. The teams in this group enter the season with big question marks that place them below the elite teams in this conference.The last five
Chicago Bulls: 36-46
Toronto Raptors: 33-49
Charlotte Hornets: 26-56
Brooklyn Nets: 23-59
Washington Wizards: 20-62
After falling to the bottom of the Eastern standings, these five teams crawling through the basement can be divided into three different groups.
First, there’s the team that has the potential to move up to the play-in group: the Raptors. Toronto didn’t trade Brandon Ingram last spring and instead gave him a nine-figure extension. Teams that are in the luxury tax don’t expect to be projected to be at the bottom of the standings. If Toronto is eliminated from postseason contention, it will be a big disappointment.
Then, there are two teams at a crossroads: the Bulls and the Hornets. Both have talented players approaching their prime (Josh Giddey and Coby White in Chicago, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Ingram in Charlotte); some hopeful long-term building blocks (Matas Buzelis and Noa Essengue, Tidjane Salaun and Kon Knueppel) and rosters that could end up fighting for a play-in spot or a position near the top of the lottery.
And then there are the Nets and the Wizards, for whom there is no ambiguity. These two teams hope to land in the top four of the 2026 NBA draft, which promises to have a group full of prospects. This season, they will play with many young players, make trades of future assets, and focus on, hopefully, a different result in the lottery next May.
Western Conference
The Contenders
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18
Houston Rockets: 54-28
Denver Nuggets: 53-29
Minnesota Timberwolves: 51-31
LA Clippers: 50-32
Los Angeles Lakers: 50-32
Get used to hearing this: The Thunder are the clear favorites in the West. Fresh off becoming the youngest NBA champion team in nearly five decades, Oklahoma City has as much continuity as any defending champion, as their entire extended rotation returns intact. Current scoring champion, MVP, and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at the peak of his career, and supporting stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are rising talents who have just signed extensions to their rookie contracts. It should surprise no one that the Thunder flirt with the 70-win milestone again. The Rockets were a surprise last season, rising to second place in the West before falling in the first round of the playoffs. Houston addressed the obvious hole in their roster – a go-to guy – by trading for future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant without compromising hopes of having a long run as a contender.
The Nuggets also addressed an obvious need by strengthening their bench, creating the financial flexibility to add depth by trading Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 first-round pick for Cameron Johnson, a potential upgrade at forward. After pushing the Thunder to seven games in the Western Conference semifinals, Denver is determined to give three-time MVP Nikola Jokic a real chance to win another ring. The Lakers are arguably the most intriguing team in the West, as they transition to the Luka Doncic era with all-time leading scorer LeBron James still on the roster and very much in the spotlight.
The play-in group
Golden State Warriors: 48-34
Dallas Mavericks: 44-38
San Antonio Spurs: 44-38
Memphis Grizzlies: 42-40
The West is so crowded with contenders that a couple of them will inevitably be pushed into this group, forced to play an extra game or two with their playoff hopes on the line. That’s particularly dangerous for more veteran teams like the Warriors and Mavericks, who will likely spend the last month of the season in a race at full speed for the classification and will not get the extra week of rest before the playoffs that the best teams receive.
However, two teams will still emerge from the play-in. The Warriors, seeded seventh, defeated the Rockets, seeded second, in the first round last April. If Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Draymond Green are healthy, the top two seeds in the West won’t be euphoric to see the Warriors emerge from the seventh or eighth spot this spring. The same applies to the Mavericks if Kyrie Irving returns in time from his ACL tear. When the regular season ends, it will have been 13 months since his injury.
The other two teams in this group – the Spurs and the Grizzlies – seem to be heading in different directions. San Antonio is entering the third season of its patient rebuild around Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs won 22 and 34 games in their first two seasons. This season, our projections anticipate they will make a bigger jump to the 40s. The Grizzlies, for their part, traded one of their key players this summer (Desmond Bane) for a package of draft picks, a move that could mean the franchise is preparing to take a step back.
The Blazers have a new owner on the way, Damian Lillard is back, and Yang Hansen is an intriguing rookie for a team working to be a contender. Although head coach Chauncey Billups will have his team compete with the new addition Jrue Holiday, the Blazers’ prospects look brighter when looking beyond this season. The West has only gotten better, and Lillard is out for the season. Portland has young talents in Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe and prospects to develop like Donovan Clingan. But if the Blazers are going to compete for a play-in or playoff spot, they will need Scoot Henderson to realize the potential that made him the third pick in 2023.
Sacramento will have a full season under new coach Doug Christie, who will try to get the best out of Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan with Dennis Schroder at point guard. With Kevin Durant now in Houston and Bradley Beal in LA, Phoenix has begun its rebuild around Devin Booker and a host of bigs. New Orleans added Jordan Poole and Jeremiah Fears and still has Zion Williamson. But can Williamson stay healthy? To round out the final five, Utah’s eternal rebuild continues with new addition Ace Bailey, but the Jazz seem destined to finish in the basement of the West once again.
