Machado: ?3,000 hits and 500 HR? The Padres legend heading to the Hall

On the eve of his 33rd birthday, Manny Machado continues to forge a career that positions him as a future Hall of Famer. The star third baseman for the Padres is on the verge of reaching 2,000 hits and recently hit his 355th home run, solidifying his place among baseball legends. If he maintains his current pace, Machado could not only reach 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, but he also has Tony Gwynn’s RBI record in his sights and, most importantly for the fans, the long-awaited first World Series championship for San Diego.

Machado in the elite

With 1,994 hits and 355 home runs before turning 33, Machado joins a select group of only 11 players who have achieved both marks at that age. Of these, eight are already Hall of Famers.

• Hank Aaron ✅
• Jimmie Foxx ✅
• Lou Gehrig ✅
• Ken Griffey Jr. ✅
• Mickey Mantle ✅
• Willie Mays ✅
• Mel Ott ✅
• Frank Robinson ✅
• Miguel Cabrera ❌
• Albert Pujols ❌
• Alex Rodríguez ❌
• Manny Machado ❓

Consistency is what ultimately triumphs. And Machado has been consistently elite.

Mike Shildt

Goal 1: 3,000 hits

With a contract in effect until 2033, Machado would need only 118 hits per year in that period to reach 3,000. In 2025, he is on pace to record 182 hits, the most in seven seasons, and with a batting average of .293, he is in one of his most productive campaigns.

• 2025: 182 (Estimated cumulative total: 2,176)
• 2026: 150 (Estimated cumulative total: 2,326)
• 2027: 140 (Estimated cumulative total: 2,466)
• 2028: 130 (Estimated cumulative total: 2,596)
• 2029: 120 (Estimated cumulative total: 2,716)
• 2030: 110 (Estimated cumulative total: 2,826)
• 2031: 100 (Estimated cumulative total: 2,926)
• 2032: 90 (Estimated cumulative total: 3,016)

At this rate, he could reach 3,000 hits in 2032, just before his contract ends.

Objective 2: 500 home runs

The 355th home run came on June 23 against the Nationals. Machado would need 145 more to reach 500. At his current pace of 30 HR per season in San Diego, this figure seems very realistic.

• 2025: 30 (Total accumulated: 385)
• 2026: 27 (Total accumulated: 412)
• 2027: 24 (Total accumulated: 436)
• 2028: 21 (Total accumulated: 457)
• 2029: 18 (Total accumulated: 475)
• 2030: 15 (Total accumulated: 490)
• 2031: 10 (Total accumulated: 500)

Machado could reach 500 HR in the 2031 season, at 39 years old.

Goal 3: Padres Home Run Record

The legendary Tony Gwynn recorded 1,138 RBIs in his career. Machado, with 583 RBI, has already surpassed half of that figure and has not yet reached the halfway point of his contract.

• Tony Gwynn: 1,138
• Dave Winfield: 638
• Manny Machado: 583

With only 65 RBIs per season, Machado could break that record before 2033.

Objective 4: First World Series Title

Beyond the numbers, Machado pursues a greater goal: to lead the Padres to their first championship in history. With teammates like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, and a competitive core, San Diego’s dream is more real than ever.