Voting intention in Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro narrows the gap with Lula da Silva
The political landscape in Brazil remains red-hot ahead of the presidential elections on October 4th. According to the most recent data published by Datafolha, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has managed to narrow the gap against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, placing himself just one percentage point behind in voting intention for the first round.
The opinion poll shows that Lula da Silva currently has 39% of electoral preferences, while Flávio Bolsonaro has climbed to 36%. This movement represents a slight advance for the senator, who in the previous measurement recorded 35%, while the president has kept his percentage intact. Due to the margin of error of two percentage points, analysts agree that both candidates are in a technical tie.
Details of the electoral landscape
The trend shows a progressive strengthening of Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy in recent weeks. After the two main contenders, the rest of the political spectrum is distributed as follows:
- Augusto Cury: 6 %
- Ronaldo Caiado: 4 %
- Renan Santos: 3 %
- Romeu Zema: 2 %
Likewise, the study indicates that 6% of the electorate would opt for a blank or null vote, while 3% of those surveyed still declare themselves undecided.
The polarization scenario moves to a possible runoff on October 25, where the gap between Lula da Silva, with 46%, and Flávio Bolsonaro, with 44%, remains within the statistical margin of error.
Context of the contest
The Brazilian electoral campaign is going through a moment of maximum tension. It is important to remember that Flávio Bolsonaro was designated as a candidate by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who currently faces a disqualification that prevents him from participating directly in the race.
For the realization of this survey, 2,002 interviews were conducted with Brazilian citizens over 16 years of age on September 15 and 16. It is essential to specify that these results reflect the voting intention at the time of the consultation and should not be interpreted as a definitive prediction of the results at the polls.
