Bernardo Vega projects a possible runoff in the 2028 elections
Renowned economist and historian Bernardo Vega has shared his analysis of the Dominican political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. According to his estimates, the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) will face serious difficulties in reaching 50% of the vote, which would open the door to a runoff election.
Vega maintains that the country’s political dynamics have undergone a profound transformation, characterized by a notable increase in electoral apathy and a significant rise in citizens who define themselves as independent.
The rise of independent voters
Recalling his beginnings in the field of political polling alongside Mark Penn in 1981, the expert pointed out an abysmal difference compared to today. While four decades ago barely 7% of those surveyed declared themselves independent, today that figure exceeds half of the electorate.
Nowadays, more than half of the voters say they are independent, which reflects the disgust, the apathy towards all political parties, in contrast to the enthusiasm of before.
Bernardo Vega
Furthermore, the historian highlighted that citizen participation has shown signs of exhaustion. After the end of the dictatorship, the polls recorded massive turnout, but in more recent processes, abstention has gained greater relevance, especially among the Dominican community residing abroad.
Key figures and the constitutional landscape
In his analysis of potential candidates, Vega clarified that, although figures like Luis Abinader and Danilo Medina cannot run for the presidency in 2028, the scenario remains open for other leaderships. In particular, he highlighted the situation of former president Leonel Fernández.
“Due to a constitutional error, I believe, Leonel Fernández can go to those elections, despite having been president on three occasions,” pointed out Vega, suggesting that his presence would add a factor of high competitiveness to the process.
International influence and the Trump factor
Another aspect addressed by the economist was the possible impact of foreign policy, specifically the role that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, could play. Vega questioned how the Dominican electorate would react to a potential endorsement by Trump of any local candidate.
- Would international support add votes or generate rejection?
- Would it be interpreted as interference in sovereign affairs?
Finally, Vega reiterated that the lack of clear ideological distinctions between the majority parties—PRM, PRD, and Fuerza del Pueblo—contributes to the electorate remaining in a position of uncertainty. Under this scheme, the economist insists that a runoff is not only possible, but would grant a decisive role to minority organizations in the search for strategic alliances.
