UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira and more
The world of mixed martial arts is gearing up for a stellar event: UFC 317, which will close out International Fight Week at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Saturday night promises strong emotions with high-caliber fights. The main event of the night will be headlined by Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira, who will compete for the 155-pound belt, recently vacated by Islam Makhachev. Topuria, recognized as the second-best pound-for-pound fighter according to Alofoke Deportes, will face Oliveira, ranked as the second-best lightweight. In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja will seek his fourth consecutive defense of the flyweight title against Kai Kara-France. Pantoja, positioned at number 7 in the pound-for-pound ranking, comes to the fight without knowing defeat since July 2020. Kara-France, for his part, occupies the fourth place in the flyweight ranking and earned his title opportunity after an impressive knockout victory in the first round over Steve Erceg at UFC 305. Additionally, on Friday, the PFL (Professional Fighters League) will hold the semifinals of its 2025 season, with fights in the middleweight, light heavyweight, and heavyweight categories. Fabian Edwards will face Josh Silveira in the PFL main event. Also, on the main card, former Bellator bantamweight champions Sergio Pettis and Raufeon Stots will face each other in a highly anticipated matchup.Analysis and Predictions
Renowned analysts and commentators in the MMA world, including UFC coaches and betting experts, have shared their predictions for the main fights. Ian Parker, a betting expert, offers his analysis on the most interesting bets of both cards.Lightweight Championship
Everything I see in this matchup leads me to pick Ilia. He is a technically superior boxer. Against Josh Emmett in 2023, he proved to be defensively responsible, even without problems to stand in the pocket. Ilia is so technically sound, which is extremely impressive. And if he manages to dominate Charles on the ground, I think he will do serious damage to him.
Anthony Smith
Betting AnalysisParker predicts a Topuria victory by TKO/KO, surpassing 1.5 rounds. Topuria, who is moving up from featherweight to lightweight, is seeking his second championship. The odds favor Topuria (-525), but Parker believes the line is too wide, given that Topuria only has one fight at lightweight in the UFC. Parker suggests betting on the KO/TKO if choosing Topuria, and also considers the option of over 1.5 rounds interesting, given that Oliveira hasn’t been knocked out since 2017.I think it will be pretty one-sided. I think Ilia will hurt him in the first round and make him doubt for the rest of the fight. Ilia will start to destroy Charles and finish him in the third round.
Din Thomas
Flyweight Championship
I see this fight as pretty one-sided as well. Ultimately, Kai won’t be able to stop the takedown and that’s the difference in this fight. Once Pantoja gets him on the ground, he’ll take the back and choke him out before the third round begins.
Din Thomas
Kara-France is on an impressive streak right now. Pantoja sometimes doesn’t close the distance well. He’s a bit clumsy doing it, and Kara-France has looked very clean in his strikes. His evasion and counterattacks look much better, and his footwork looks much better.
Anthony Smith
Betting Analysis
Parker bets on Pantoja to win (-250). Despite Kara-France’s knockout power, Parker doesn’t expect it to be enough to defeat the champion. Pantoja can match Kara-France’s power and has the endurance to survive any strong blows. The biggest disparity is Pantoja’s ground game, which should lead him to another successful title defense.Parker’s Best Bets for the Rest of the Card
Bantamweight: Felipe Lima vs. Payton Talbott Lima to win (-195). Talbott was dominated from start to finish by Raoni Barcelos in his last fight. Lima should use his wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills to win. Middleweight: Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues Rodrigues to win (-220). Rodrigues is the better striker and possesses tremendous knockout power. Rodrigues should keep the fight standing and get back on the winning track.
