A little more than a quarter of the 2025 MLB season, the landscape presents some surprises and confirmations. The playoffs in the American League promise to be close, the Los Angeles Dodgers maintain their level despite injuries in their pitching staff, and the National League teams meet expectations. In the midst of this scenario, some teams have exceeded initial playoff predictions. Let’s analyze five of them, who started the season with less than a 50% chance of qualifying, according to previous projections.
Detroit Tigers: A Promising Start?
The Detroit Tigers (31-17) have been one of the big surprises. With a 41.2% chance of making the playoffs before the season, they have demonstrated remarkable offensive power. Last season, the team hit 162 home runs in 162 games. This year, they already have 60 in their first 47 games, with a pace of 207. Their on-base percentage (OBP) has improved significantly, going from .300 to .333, which has increased their average runs per game from 4.21 to 5.38.
Players like Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize, who struggled in 2024, have resurfaced. Torkelson already has 12 home runs and excels in RBIs, while Mize has a 6-1 record with an ERA of 2.53. Javier Báez, after a couple of complicated seasons, has recovered his level, batting .291/.326/.485 and adapting to center field after Parker Meadows’ injury.
Starting pitching depth and third base could be areas of concern. However, so far, the Tigers have shown no obvious weaknesses. With Meadows’ return, Báez could cover third base, keeping Zach McKinstry in a versatile role. The return of Sawyer Gipson-Long, who is on a rehab assignment, and the solidity of the rotation in Double-A, provide backup options.
The question now is not whether the Tigers are real, but whether they can aspire to be the best team in franchise history. The 1984 team, with 104 wins and a blazing start, is the benchmark. The 2025 Tigers, with a pace of 107 wins after 47 games, seem to be well on their way. They have demonstrated a balanced game, with a deep offense, a solid defense, and an effective bullpen. Despite the injuries of Matt Vierling and Meadows, the team has maintained a high level.
Mize’s effectiveness and Tarik Skubal’s leadership in the rotation are key factors. Although the bullpen is not as dominant in terms of strikeouts, it is an area where adjustments can be made in the free agent market. The lack of a consistent closer is another detail to consider, but manager A.J. Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter have demonstrated their ability to manage the bullpen. Although some hitters could experience a regression, the return of Vierling and Meadows will give Hinch greater tactical flexibility.
Although a 107-win team is not expected, the Tigers could reach 95 wins, something they haven’t achieved since 2011.
Verdict: Real
St. Louis Cardinals: A Mirage?
The St. Louis Cardinals (27-21), with a 33.9% chance of making the playoffs, have shown a mixed performance. Their 12-1 run between May 4 and 17, with an ERA of 2.33 and three shutouts, was noteworthy. The rotation ranks a solid eighth in the league with an ERA of 3.64.
Brendan Donovan and Ivan Herrera have been key figures in the attack. Donovan is batting .330/.387/.466, while Herrera, after recovering from an injury, is batting .429 in 15 games. Matthew Liberatore, who previously played in the bullpen, has proven his worth in the rotation, with a 3-3 record and an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio.
However, Jordan Walker has had a slow start, averaging .189 and 44 strikeouts. The team, after a complicated start, showed a notable improvement, including important victories. The effectiveness of the rotation and the lack of strikeouts are worrying aspects, especially for Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, and Miles Mikolas. Although the offense seems more solid, the lack of power could be a limiting factor.
Verdict: Not real
San Francisco Giants: A Real Contender?
The San Francisco Giants (28-20), with a 24.6% chance of making the playoffs, have surprised with their performance. The bullpen has been a strength, with a combined 10-2 record and a 1.27 ERA in 78 innings. Logan Webb, with a 2.42 ERA and a high strikeout percentage, leads the team.
Wilmer Flores has been a productive hitter, leading the league in RBIs. However, there are areas of concern, such as the lack of performance from the starting pitchers and Jordan Hicks’ struggles in the rotation. The team has won despite not having consistent performance in all areas.
The key to the Giants’ success will be maintaining consistency in the bullpen and improving offensive performance. The team has not yet played against the Dodgers, and their performance against other division rivals has been mixed. Willy Adames’ performance and production from first base will be crucial.
Verdict: Real
Cleveland Guardians: Exceeding Expectations?
The Cleveland Guardians (25-21), with a 19% chance of making the playoffs, have exceeded expectations. Despite a positive win-loss record, the statistics suggest an underperformance. Pitching has been key in decisive moments.
Hunter Gaddis has proven his worth, while Kyle Manzardo has provided offensive power. However, the rotation and defense have shown weaknesses, and Brayan Rocchio’s poor performance at shortstop is concerning.
Although the bullpen has been solid, the rotation has not dominated. The offense, despite the presence of José Ramírez and Steven Kwan, might not be enough in the long run. The defense has not been as impressive as in the previous season. The key for the Guardians will be to survive a month of difficult games, including series against strong teams.
Verdict: Not real
Oakland Athletics: A Team in Construction?
The Oakland Athletics (22-26), with an 8.4% chance of making the playoffs, have had a variable performance. Jacob Wilson has been one of the standout figures, but the team has suffered ups and downs, especially against strong teams. The lack of quality pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen, is a concern.
The team has shown difficulties, losing important series. The offense needs to improve, especially Lawrence Butler and Nick Kurtz. Although the team has promising players, the pitching seems insufficient to maintain the pace throughout the season.
Verdict: Not real
