MLB Analysis: Overreactions and Truths in the National League
The weekend was full of emotions in MLB. The Milwaukee Brewers continued their winning streak, until they finally suffered a defeat. The New York Mets, for their part, went from losing to winning. The Los Angeles Dodgers demonstrated their power, while the Philadelphia Phillies faced a tough injury. The Chicago Cubs, despite their low offensive performance, managed to win a series.
Let’s analyze the reactions of the contending teams in the National League and determine which ones are exaggerated and which ones are realistic.Are the Brewers the best team in MLB?
The Brewers’ streak of 14 consecutive wins and 29 wins in 33 games is impressive. Although they have only been the sixth team to achieve this in this century, and none of them won the World Series. The Brewers lead the majors in run differential with a +168, showing a good balance in starting and relief pitching, offense, defense, and baserunning.
However, according to Clay Davenport’s third-order win-loss results, the Brewers are very close to the Cubs. The Brewers have scored more runs and allowed fewer than statistically expected. They lead the majors with a .288 average with runners in scoring position and limit their opponents to the third-lowest average with runners in scoring position.
With key players like Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski in the rotation, in addition to being the best team in base running, the Brewers seem to be the most complete team in the league. They have performed well against strong teams, suggesting they are on track to win 100 games.
VERDICT: IT’S NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Brewers seem to be the most complete team in the majors.Are Pete Crow-Armstrong’s struggles a cause for concern?
Pete Crow-Armstrong had an excellent performance at the end of July, but since then he has had a slump in his performance. His batting average has decreased and the Cubs, who led the NL Central, are now only one game away.
Analysts predicted a regression due to Crow-Armstrong’s aggressiveness at the plate. Although his chase rate has improved, his performance has not improved. His struggles against left-handed pitchers are evident.
The Cubs’ offense has been affected by the poor performance of several key players. For the Cubs to recover, they need the whole group to return to their best level.
VERDICT: IT’S NOT AN OVERREACTION. It’s reasonable to assume he won’t play like he did in the first months of the season.Are the Mets doomed to miss the playoffs?
After a winning streak in July, the Mets reinforced their bullpen, but suffered a series of defeats. Despite this, FanGraphs’ odds give them an 86% chance of reaching the postseason. However, the Reds lead the season series and could have the advantage in case of a tie.
The Mets, with the highest budget in the league, risk missing the playoffs.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. The team is still favored to get at least a wild card.Is Zack Wheeler’s absence a big problem for the Phillies?
Wheeler’s injury from a blood clot near his right shoulder jeopardizes his participation for the rest of the season. Other starting pitchers have also struggled, which could affect the team’s performance.
Although the classification to the playoffs seems secure, the lack of Wheeler could affect the team’s performance at the crucial moment. The performance of some pitchers and the need for the offense to improve are key factors.
VERDICT: IT’S NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Phillies’ hopes could depend on an offense that hasn’t performed in recent postseasons.Did the Dodgers dominate the Padres with their sweep?
The Dodgers, after a period of difficulties, swept the Padres in a key series. With a stellar rotation and the return of important players, they seem to be on their way to obtaining their 12th divisional title in 13 seasons.
However, the Dodgers’ bullpen continues to struggle with injuries, and some key players are not performing at the expected level. It is recommended to wait for the final series against the Padres to assess their true performance.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. A great series doesn’t mean the Dodgers are fully recovered.
