MLB: Who are the favorites? Free agency analysis and more

MLB Free Agent Market Heats Up: Analysis and Outlook

Concerns about the health of the Major League Baseball free agent market for the 2025-26 seasons dissipated during the general managers’ meetings in Las Vegas. With the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement just around the corner and the possibility of a lockout in 2027, teams made it clear that they are moving forward without letting the uncertainty of the future affect the present. A clear example of this is the [Pittsburgh Pirates](/mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-pirates), who usually don’t spend much. The largest contract they have awarded was more than a decade ago, for $39 million to Francisco Liriano. Despite this, the Pirates were willing to invest more than double in Josh Naylor before he renewed with Seattle for five years and $92.5 million. In addition, they are considering other options to complement Paul Skenes and a rotation that stood out in the second half of the season. The most exciting prospect is 19-year-old Konnor Griffin, considered the minor league player of the year in 2025. The Pirates are evaluating the possibility of giving him the opportunity to compete for the shortstop position in the Major Leagues. Griffin impressed scouts with a .333/.415/.527 average, 21 home runs, and 65 stolen bases in his first professional season. The decision is complex. The last time a teenage position player debuted in the majors was Juan Soto in 2018. A talent like Griffin shouldn’t be rushed, even if the team wants to win now. Concerns about the new basic agreement are particularly important for a team like Pittsburgh. If 2027 is missed, the players will recover the lost service time, and the Pirates don’t want to start Griffin’s clock early just for the rules to hurt them. The possibility of aligning Griffin with a group of free agent hitters and a top-tier rotation is attractive enough to make the Pirates a team to watch this winter. The market won’t activate until after Thanksgiving, but a very busy offseason is expected.

Free Agent Hitters: The Key Names

The two Kyles: Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber, despite sharing a name and agent, are in different categories. Tucker is the most prominent player among the free agents this winter, with an OPS+ of 140 and a combination of power, speed, and defense that will secure him at least $300 million, possibly more than $400 million. Schwarber, at 32 years old, is coming off his best season, leading the National League in home runs (56) and RBIs (132). The demand for Schwarber is high, despite his age and lack of positional flexibility. Teams are very interested, including the Phillies, who are looking to re-sign him, and even the Pirates. Schwarber fits in almost anywhere due to his production and leadership. The Red Sox regret letting him go after 2021. The Mets could make a splash if they get him. The Blue Jays are looking for a left-handed complement to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Cincinnati is close to where Schwarber grew up, and the Tigers need to improve their offense. It is expected that the contract offers will raise Schwarber’s average annual value to more than $30 million. Schwarber has excellent plate discipline and has evolved enormously. Left-handed relief pitchers used to dominate him, but in 2025, he hit 14 home runs against them, with an OPS of 1.147. It is likely that Schwarber’s signing will precede Tucker’s. Due to the expected contract, Tucker’s offers will be more limited, but still abundant. The Blue Jays, after their first World Series appearance in over three decades, don’t plan to stop. They are considered favorites to sign Tucker. If Schwarber leaves Philadelphia, Tucker makes sense there, especially as the Phillies look to rejuvenate. The Dodgers could also be interested, but they are more likely to offer a short-term, high-value contract. Tucker’s desire to win will be a key factor, keeping the Yankees and Mets in the running. Other teams that could be options for Tucker include the Giants and the Orioles. The Cubs are not expected to match Tucker’s price.Bo’s Big Swing: Among the most prominent names this winter is Bo Bichette, who, at 27 years old, is the youngest national free agent available. Bichette secured a nine-figure sum with an excellent season in 2025, batting .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs and 94 RBIs. A knee injury kept him out of most of the postseason, but he returned for the World Series and batted .348/.444/.478 with a home run in Game 7. Bichette is a middle-of-the-field hitter with great skill for connecting with the ball and power. Doubts about his defense are valid, as he was one of the worst shortstops in baseball this past season, but a move to second base (where he played well in the World Series) or third base is reasonable. However, teams haven’t shied away from Bichette at shortstop. Besides the Blue Jays, who have Andrés Giménez to play shortstop, but could still sign Tucker and Bichette, the Braves and Tigers have holes at the most important infield position. The Yankees could use an upgrade over Anthony Volpe and Jose Caballero. The Mets aren’t looking to replace Francisco Lindor at shortstop, but they do have room for improvement at second and third, as do the Phillies. Even if there isn’t a perfect fit for Bichette, the opportunity to get a 27-year-old infielder with a top-quality bat and not have to give up any prospects is rare. The last player of Bichette’s caliber and age to reach free agency was Carlos Correa, and he received a six-year, $200 million contract from the Twins. It remains to be seen whether Bichette’s contract price stays within a range that allows teams with smaller budgets to enter the fray. But after the general managers’ meetings, it’s clear that opportunities for Bichette will not be lacking.The Boras 3: In the 2023-24 offseason, four Scott Boras clients, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger, did not get the mega-contracts they were seeking. Instead, they all signed short-term contracts with opt-out clauses during spring training. The move worked well for Snell and Chapman, but failed with Montgomery and Bellinger. This winter will be the determinant of Bellinger’s fate. Bellinger is one of three possible nine-figure hitters represented by Boras, along with third baseman Alex Bregman and first baseman Pete Alonso. They, along with Tucker, Schwarber, and Bichette, make up the top six position players in free agency, and their diverse skills are attracting widespread interest. In addition to the Yankees, who would like to re-sign Bellinger, the Blue Jays see him as a good alternative to Tucker. The Dodgers, who didn’t offer Bellinger a contract three years ago, have expressed interest in the outfielder market. The Red Sox adore Bregman, who opted out of the last two years and $80 million of his contract, and won’t close the door on a reunion despite having Marcelo Mayer ready to play at third. Detroit and Chicago, who pursued him last winter but were unsuccessful, will re-enter the contest, with Philadelphia lurking as it balances multiple potential paths. Alonso’s willingness to play as a designated hitter offers the kinds of avenues that a first-base mindset wouldn’t. He could stay with the Mets, move to Boston, bring Cincinnati the big bat it desperately needs, or, if Ryan Mountcastle is traded or not offered a contract, split first base and DH duties in Baltimore with rookie Samuel Basallo, who will also spend a lot of time as a catcher. For the three of them, the expectation of a large contract is high. How quickly they materialize will help shape the winter.The two Japanese sluggers: Possibly the two best hitters from Japan are heading to MLB this winter. Munetaka Murakami is a 25-year-old left-handed hitter with first-class raw power and potential as high as any free agent, domestic or international. Kazuma Okamoto is a 29-year-old right-handed hitter with tremendous ball-connecting skills that complement his power. Both are third basemen with the ability to play first base. His free agency prospects are not as similar as their backgrounds. Due to his age and power potential, Murakami, who entered the posting system on November 8 to facilitate the move from the Tokyo Yakult Swallows to MLB and must sign before 5 p.m. ET on December 22, will attract a great deal of interest. From big-market teams looking for a corner infielder to lower-revenue teams that typically don’t have access to players of Murakami’s age and potential, he is on track to get the first nine-figure contract for a Japanese position player coming to MLB. Breaking the Nippon Professional Baseball home run record in a season by a Japan-born player in 2022 has made Murakami’s incorporation into MLB years in the making. Okamoto, on the other hand, has not yet been posted. Once he is, he will demand a shorter-term contract, but could appeal more to teams looking for current production. In 293 plate appearances this year for the Yomiuri Giants, he batted .327/.416/.598 with 15 home runs, 49 RBIs, and just 33 strikeouts. The combination of such damage with so few strikeouts is attractive, particularly compared to Murakami’s 36.7% strikeout rate, the third-highest among NPB players with at least 200 plate appearances. Even if swinging so much is inherently bad, it’s not entirely disqualifying. Just look at Nick Kurtz: he missed 35.5% of the swings he took and was still named American League Rookie of the Year and finished 12th in the MVP voting. That’s the kind of pop Murakami has, and it gives him the option to choose teams. Among those targeting first base: the Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Rangers and, yes, even the Pirates.The rest: With Naylor off the market, here are eight other free agent bats likely to draw significant interest.

• Eugenio Suárez, third baseman: Want a home run hitter who won’t cost nine figures? This is your man. Suárez hit 49 home runs in 2025 and, at 34 years old, reaches free agency hoping teams will take advantage of his power potential and overlook his low on-base percentage (.298 this past season, .328 lifetime). He will likely end up on a short-term, high-value contract for a team that needs a third baseman.
• Ha-Seong Kim, infielder: When Kim opted for a $16 million payout with Atlanta, he was well aware of how many major league caliber infielders are on the free agent market. He could choose a multi-year contract or a considerable one-time payout that would put him in a position to return to free agency at age 31, perhaps coming off a standard Kim season.
• Jorge Polanco, infielder: One of Seattle’s playoff standouts and a target for the Mariners to re-sign this winter, Polanco is 32 years old, having debuted in 2014 at age 20. Between his age and his difficulty staying healthy in recent years, Polanco has his problems, but they are not the kind that will prevent teams from trying to sign him. He should do well.
• Ryan O’Hearn, first base: O’Hearn remade himself after leaving Kansas City, turning to the strong side of a platoon, and then managed to finish 2025 with a better OPS against left-handed pitchers than against right-handers. At 32 years old, O’Hearn will not demand a big contract, but between his production and lack of strikeouts, he will have no problem finding several years.
• J.T. Realmuto, catcher: The only full-time starting free agent catcher, Realmuto should have a lot of interest including returning to Philadelphia or heading to any number of teams looking to improve at the position. At 35 years old on opening day, Realmuto will not demand more than two years, which will put the three-time All-Star in play for playoff teams and contenders alike.

Short-term bets: A dozen other bats worth monitoring.

Harrison Bader, center fielder: Bader hit well during his two months in Philadelphia (helped by a .415 average on balls in play) and always plays excellent defense in center field.

The big question: At 28 years old, Luis Arráez is one of the youngest players available. Before the 2025 season, he won three consecutive batting titles. And this year, he led the National League in hits. Sounds like the resume of someone ready to get paid.

Instead, teams can’t help but see Arráez for all that he isn’t. Like, a passable defender. Or a source of power. Or even a decent base runner. Arráez is perhaps the biggest litmus test yet for the power of batting average in the modern game. He is an absolute wizard of contact, striking out just 21 times in 675 plate appearances this season, the lowest strikeout rate since Tony Gwynn struck out 15 times in 577 plate appearances 30 years ago. And in a game where offense has been poisoned by the strikeout, Arráez’s skill is worth a lot. Simply not enough, in the opinion of executives, to justify a large contract. Arráez won’t be begging for a job, by any means, but because poor defense pushed him from second to first base, where he wasn’t particularly skilled either, and his .292 batting average was barely better than a league-average hitter, his contract offers won’t be bustling. Arráez is really good at what he does. What he does so well is simply not valued as it used to be.

Free Agent Launchers: The Key to Success

The postseason, and especially the World Series, reminded the industry that not only is starting pitching still important, but it can serve as the foundation for a championship. All teams covet good starting pitching, and with the trade market constantly changing, we’ll get to that later, free agency offers the cleanest opportunity to get it. Spend the money and it’s yours.Candidates for the big contract: The operative question is how much money will be invested in Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Tatsuya Imai, considered the front-line starters this winter. Considering the wide range of teams prioritizing starting pitchers (the Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays are playing in the top market sandbox, with the Angels, Astros, A’s, Giants, and others lurking), a generous payday awaits the three.

Each one brings something different. Valdez is a model of consistency who consumes innings and induces ground balls. In the last four years, Logan Webb leads MLB with 820 innings. Valdez is in second place with 767⅔, more than 30 innings ahead of Zac Gallen, who is in third place. In addition to that, Valdez’s ground ball rate of 60% is the highest among all starters. Only two pitchers with more than 500 innings have conceded a lower home run rate than Valdez, 0.68 per nine innings: Webb and Max Fried.

Valdez is the antithesis of a modern pitcher. He relies heavily on a sinker and throws only two other pitches, a curveball and a changeup. He strikes out many batters, but not because he’s trying to rack up strikeouts. And if there’s any doubt about his credentials in big games, don’t forget that he outdueled Zack Wheeler twice in the 2022 World Series. Cease is a modern pitcher in the sense that he wields a big fastball, throws his slider more than any of his other pitches, and records many strikeouts. His K rate of 11.03 per nine is eighth in MLB over the last four years. He still walks too many batters, is in the top 10 in walk rate, and is coming off his second season with an ERA over 4.50 in three years. But his ceiling, as seen with an effectiveness of 2.20 in 2022, is higher than Valdez’s, and free agency is nothing more than a paradise for dreamers. There will be a team that sees in Cease untapped potential and is willing to give him a nine-figure contract. Why? The stuff is nasty, and after Wheeler turned the nasty stuff into a bonanza of a deal for the Phillies, any pitcher with premium offerings receives the required love in free agency.

Which brings us to Imai. The 27-year-old is the jewel of the NPB’s pitching class, coming off a season in which he recorded a 1.92 ERA and nearly four times as many strikeouts as walks. Standing at 5-foot-11, he cuts a similar figure to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and similarly runs his fastball up to 99 mph. His pitch mix will likely change when he comes to the United States, with over 80% of his pitches for the Saitama Seibu Lions this year being either four-seam fastballs or sliders. He also has a splitter, a changeup, a curveball, and a sinker.

Although opinion on Imai varies significantly among teams (some are simply not interested in him), interest in him is strong, and he could easily end up being the highest-paid starter this winter due to his age. (His posting window, sources said, is expected to open Wednesday and close at 5 p.m. ET on January 2). The over/under for the three is $150 million, with Valdez’s greatest appeal to teams with good infield defenses and smaller ballparks, Cease’s to teams that believe their coaching staff has the ability to extract more from talented arms, and Imai’s to teams that see the Dodgers’ foray into Japan and don’t want to fall further behind than they already are.

As with Murakami and Okamoto, that feeling prevails this winter, sources said, and because of this, the three most talented Japanese players could end up with larger-than-expected contracts, even before associated posting fees.Others in line for a big payday: Multiple teams, sources said, have put lefty Ranger Suárez at the top of their list of the best pitchers available this winter. Although some wondered if right-hander Michael King would accept a qualifying offer, he is more likely to get a contract in the range of Nathan Eovaldi’s three-year, $75 million deal from last winter. Right-hander Zac Gallen also did not accept a qualifying offer and should be able to choose between a multi-year contract or a short-term pillow contract. Suárez is an anomalous free agent: the soft-tossing pitcher who is going to get paid anyway. Because he has never thrown 160 innings in a season, he is unlikely to reach the financial level of the big three starters. At the same time, the consistency of 30-year-old Suárez as a difficult-to-square-up lefty, with few walks and few home runs, capable of entering games, earns him enough fans to have a very good number of options.

If it weren’t for the injuries that limited him to 15 starts this year, King could be at the top of the list of free agent pitchers. Even teams that don’t want to play in the nine-figure range see King as a nine-figure talent, and because of his expected price for a deal, both high- and low-income teams will be in the mix.

Gallen is coming off the worst season of his career, with an ERA of 4.83, but still managed to log 192 innings. The home run ball haunted him, with a career-high 31 allowed, nearly double what he averaged in his previous four seasons. Some teams see that as a sign that the worst is yet to come. Others believe it’s an outlier and that he’s in line for positive regression. Gallen will benefit most from the high prices being asked in the trade market, which serves to drive teams back to signings. Because they have no associated player cost like a trade, free agents who are patient can wait for the trade market and benefit from teams’ pivots.

Short-term starting bets:

• Merrill Kelly, right-handed starter: Kelly, 37, is a consistently good workhorse, absorbing innings annually and relying on a six-pitch mix, with none thrown more than 26% of the time. The art of location matters, and whether it’s his fastball, cutter, or changeup, he knows how to command them all well enough that teams want him for several years.
• Lucas Giolito, right-handed starter: Although he ended the season on the injured list, Giolito, 31, has returned to pitching and is coming off his best year in almost half a decade. Models won’t like his drop in strikeout rate, but Giolito’s fastball plays above its velocity and his 15 starts in which he conceded one or fewer earned runs this year ranked 11th in MLB, behind 10 pitchers who were All-Stars or received Cy Young votes.
• Chris Bassitt, right-handed starter: Bassitt is a pro’s pro, a 36-year-old who didn’t spend a second complaining about whether he should be in the Blue Jays’ rotation in October. Toronto needed him out of the bullpen; he said yes, and proceeded to concede just one run in 8⅔ innings with 10 strikeouts. Wherever he ends up, he’s the ideal candidate to play the role of veteran leader while still posting productive numbers.
• Cody Ponce, right-handed starter: Ponce, former second-round pick,