MLB Post-Deadline Analysis: Who Shines and Who Fails?

Analysis of the latest moves in MLB: Who’s up and who’s down?

The final Stock Watch of the regular season has arrived. Before the next one, we will already know who will be the 2025 World Series champion, and we will be immersed in another season of signings. With the Milwaukee Brewers leading the list for the second consecutive month, let’s analyze this surprising fact and make some observations about this year’s competition.

The budget matters, but it’s no excuse. Although most teams in the playoffs are from large markets with large investments, teams like the Brewers and the Kansas City Royals prove that there are no excuses for not competing. While it is important to seek greater equality, teams must strive to win.
We may see a new champion. There are only five teams left without World Series titles. Among them, the Brewers, with the greatest chances of breaking that drought. The San Diego Padres and the Seattle Mariners could also be contenders. These three teams have a 28% chance of winning the title. In other words, there is more than a one in four chance that a suffering fanbase will celebrate a parade in a few months.

After the MLB trade deadline passed more than a month ago, we analyze the current situation of the 30 teams, observing how their moves (or lack thereof) have worked so far.

Teams Analysis

1. Milwaukee Brewers

Average wins: 98.7 (Previous: 95.9, 1st)
In playoffs: 100.0% (Previous: 99.2%)
Champions: 18.3% (Previous: 11.3%)

Consequences of the deadline: Milwaukee didn’t make significant moves and hasn’t gotten great results from its additions. Danny Jansen hasn’t stood out since his arrival, and Shelby Miller has had a regular performance. Despite this, Milwaukee has the best record and run differential since the deadline. If Trevor Megill’s injury persists, they might regret not having been more aggressive in seeking a reliever. However, we will first wait for the Brewers’ bullpen to really have problems, as they always find solutions to cover the needs in the squad.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Average wins: 93.8 (Previous: 92.7, 5th)
In playoffs: 100.0% (Previous: 96.8%)
Champions: 10.6% (Previous: 7.8%)

Consequences of the deadline: Dave Dombrowski opted for quality over quantity and it has paid off. Harrison Bader has performed great and Jhoan Duran has met expectations, transforming the bullpen. Additions continue, even after Zack Wheeler’s absence. Dombrowski also signed Walker Buehler.

3. Chicago Cubs

Average wins: 93.3 (Previous: 95.8, 2nd)
In playoffs: 99.9% (Previous: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.2% (Previous: 13.6%)

Consequences of the deadline: Chicago’s inactivity at the deadline drew criticism, and the reaction hasn’t improved due to the struggles of the few additions they made, as well as the distance from the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cubs might reconsider their infield signings at the deadline. Willi Castro has gone from being an above-average hitter with Minnesota to being practically unusable with the Cubs, at least at the plate, as part of Chicago’s overall offensive slump.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

Average wins: 92.9 (Previous: 95.8, 2nd)
In playoffs: 99.9% (Previous: 99.4%)
Champions: 10.6% (Previous: 15.4%)

Consequences of the deadline: Los Angeles’ approach to the deadline resembled more of an indecisive team than what they really are: a very talented and resourceful defending champion, looking to repeat success. Alex Call has helped as an additional outfielder against left-handers, but Brock Stewart has struggled. The Dodgers have relied on the improved health of their pitchers in the last month. If L.A. can match their first-half hitting with their second-half pitching, the Dodgers will reach the postseason as the dominant team that was always expected.

5. Detroit Tigers

Average wins: 92.9 (Previous: 93.3, 4th)
In playoffs: 100.0% (Previous: 99.2%)
Champions: 11.3% (Previous: 11.3%)

Consequences of the deadline: The Tigers focused on pitching, especially on candidates for positive regression. It has worked for the bullpen, where Kyle Finnegan has shown improvement. The results of starters Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack have been mixed. Detroit has had a regular performance in the last month, largely due to an offense that has declined and was not addressed in the trade market. The Tigers are doing well in the race for the American League Central, but face a tough battle for first place with Toronto.

6. Toronto Blue Jays

Average wins: 91.7 (Previous: 90.7, 6th)
In playoffs: 99.4% (Previous: 92.9%)
Champions: 7.7% (Previous: 5.3%)

Consequences of the deadline: A struggling bullpen has prevented the Blue Jays from keeping their American League East rivals at bay, and, entering the final month, Toronto could either grab the top spot or be a road team in the wild-card round. The impact of the deadline has been mixed. Shane Bieber appears to be the same, which is an undeniable boost. But in a relief corps that features a closer (Jeff Hoffman) with 29 saves and a sub-replacement bWAR, the additions of Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland have yet to pay off. If Toronto’s bullpen improves, this is a complete team.

7. San Diego Padres

Average wins: 90.6 (Previous: 90.2, 7th)
In playoffs: 99.4% (Previous: 89.0%)
Champions: 4.0% (Previous: 4.5%)

Deadline Consequences: The Padres outplayed the Dodgers several times in August, only to fall behind their nemesis again. A.J. Preller’s main goal at the deadline was met, which was to reinforce the weaknesses of the roster and raise San Diego’s level. The exception to that description – the addition of Mason Miller to an already strong bullpen – seems to be a factor that raises the ceiling. The only objection could be in the rotation, where the players the Padres traded (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) have outperformed those Preller acquired (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). However, Freddy Fermin, acquired for Bergert and Kolek, stabilized the catcher position.8. New York Yankees

Average wins: 90.5 (Previous: 88.8, 11th)
In playoffs: 98.9% (Previous: 87.2%)
Champions: 10.6% (Previous: 8.0%)

Consequences of the deadline: The Yankees’ trajectory changed drastically in the second half of August, a month they finished as one of the hottest teams in baseball. With a revitalized offense and a stable rotation, New York is back in contention for the American League East Division title, a number 1 spot, the whole striped affair. But the bullpen reinforced at the deadline needs to consolidate consistently, or Yankees fans will enter October in a state of even greater anxiety than usual. If it weren’t for the solid work done so far by David Bednar, former Pirates player, New York’s work to reinforce the relief group could look even worse.

9. Boston Red Sox

Average wins: 89.7 (Previous: 88.9, 10th)
In playoffs: 97.9% (Previous: 87.6%)
Champions: 6.7% (Previous: 5.5%)

Consequences of the deadline: The additions of Boston pitchers Steven Matz and Dustin May didn’t exactly scream “all in!” for a team that had positioned itself for a playoff run at the end of July. May and the earlier addition of Jordan Hicks have had no impact, but Matz has been sensational in a rising bullpen. Boston is still playing well, and the rise of rotation prospect Payton Tolle is a shot of energy for that unit. The Red Sox needed a power hitter, but those were scarce. The bottom line is that Boston hasn’t lost ground since the last time we met.

10. Houston Astros

Average wins: 88.1 (Previous: 89.5, 9th)
In playoffs: 85.3% (Previous: 88.0%)
Champions: 3.6% (Previous: 6.1%)

Consequences of the deadline: Regardless of what was thought about Houston’s attempt to bolster its offense at the deadline with the additions of Carlos Correa, Jesús Sánchez, and Ramón Urías, it has not had the desired effect. Houston had a losing August (13-15) and ranked 26th in net runs per game. Only the Guardians scored fewer runs. Each member of the incoming trio has performed close to expectations, so they cannot be blamed, and it is likely that without them, things would be worse. Even so, the Astros begin the final stretch in a more precarious position than they have been in for a long time.

11. New York Mets

Average wins: 86.7 (Previous: 90.1, 8th)
In playoffs: 88.2% (Previous: 89.4%)
Champions: 5.2% (Previous: 4.5%)

Consequences of the deadline: The Mets enter September with one of the hottest offenses in baseball. They also have one of the coldest pitching staffs in MLB. Therefore, we’ve seen many games like New York’s 10-8 victory over Detroit on Labor Day. The Mets managed five quality starts in August. That’s not great, but if the bullpen is working… well, it isn’t. The relievers went 2-7 in save opportunities. Deadline signings Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers have been okay, but the impact was expected to come from Ryan Helsley, whose August ERA (9.31) was more like a plunge. There’s a month left to correct this before the playoffs.

12. Seattle Mariners

Average wins: 86.5 (Previous: 86.8, 12th)
In playoffs: 74.1% (Previous: 70.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Previous: 3.4%)

Consequences of the deadline: The process – acquiring the Arizona infield of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez – was deservedly praised. The early results are mixed. At first base, Seattle’s OPS before Naylor’s debut with the Mariners was 0.708, primarily Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. Since then, it’s 0.761. Yay! At third base, the OPS was 0.664 before Suárez. It’s 0.659 since then. Meh! Seattle has been stagnant since the impact of the deadline, ranking 18th in runs, despite a great month from Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh’s home run streak. The Mariners need their big guns to get going at the same time, because nothing, not even a playoff spot, is assured.

13. Texas Rangers

Average wins: 83.6 (Previous: 84.1, 13th)
In playoffs: 28.7% (Previous: 43.2%)
Champions: 1.1% (Previous: 2.1%)

Consequences of the deadline: Despite a mediocre offensive, Texas focused on pitching before the deadline, obtaining relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton. The grand prize was starting pitcher Merrill Kelly, who seemed like a luxury addition until Nathan Eovaldi’s injury. The Rangers have relied on Kelly and he has responded. That hasn’t been the case for the relievers, and for most of August, the Texas bullpen prevented the club from really catching fire. Texas heated up lately, but now faces most, if not all of September, without Eovaldi, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien. Manager Bruce Bochy will need to be in Hall of Fame form.

14. Kansas City Royals

Average wins: 82.5 (Previous: 80.9, 16th)
In playoffs: 11.3% (Previous: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Previous: 0.1%)

Consequences of the deadline: The Royals continue to undermine the excuses of the less aggressive clubs at the lowest economic levels of baseball. The threshold isn’t that high. Just try. Kansas City’s offense for most of the season was a hodgepodge of players with negative regressions from 2024, and obvious and huge holes. The Royals, seven games below .500 at the end of June, added anyway, raising their level with players like Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk, and Mike Yastrzemski. They also reinforced an injury-plagued rotation with Bergert and Kolek. Bottom line: The Royals have a lot to play for during the final stretch. A return to the playoffs is still in play.

15. Cincinnati Reds

Win rate: 81.6 (Previous: 82.3, 14th)
In playoffs: 6.8% (Previous: 12.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Previous: 0.4%)

Consequences of the deadline: The acquisition of opener Zack Littell by the Reds seemed strange to me, and frankly, still is. He’s been pretty good. But Cincinnati has a lot of “pretty good” when it comes to the rotation. The Reds have candidates for much better than that behind the pretty good. Anyway, the additions for the lineup have been very good. Miguel Andújar has hit like Miguel Cabrera in his prime. Ke’Bryan Hayes has shown his elite defense and combined it with an offensive level that adds up to a really good player. If the Reds don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be due to deficiencies at the deadline.

16. San Francisco Giants

Average wins: 81.6 (Previous: 81.8, 15th)
In playoffs: 4.8% (Previous: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.1% (Previous: 0.2%)

Consequences of the deadline: The Giants entered soft-dump mode at the deadline. They weren’t playing well, and although their odds made it possible to reach the playoffs, the trajectory wasn’t good. A month later, the Giants’ position hasn’t changed – they are still a marginal playoff contender – but some of their additions have already contributed. Jose Butto has been very good out of the bullpen, and Drew Gilbert, although batting all over, has shown some power and is acclimating to the majors. The Giants are offering a glimpse of what they will be next season, and they have given their fans reasons to follow the final stretch with interest.

17. Tampa Bay Rays

Average wins: 80.8 (Previous: 80.3, 17th)
In playoffs: 3.6% (Previous: 10.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Previous: 0.4%)

Consequences of the deadline: Once again, the Rays’ deadline focused on preparing for next season without completely waving the white flag in the current one. As can be seen in the unchanged win projection, things have followed the same path, although staying the course has come with decreasing playoff odds. The new catchers – Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes – have collectively hit less than a pitcher prior to the universal designated hitter rule. But the various departures have created opportunities for Feduccia, Carson Williams, and Everson Pereira, and that’s the general idea. A miraculous wild card spot is not, for now, totally out of the question.

18. Cleveland Guardians

Average wins: 79.4 (Previous: 79.3, 19th)
In playoffs: 0.9% (Previous: 6.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.1%)

Consequences of the deadline: Having Bieber in the Guardians’ postseason contention would be good, but the judgment on the deal with Toronto is years away and awaiting the development of prospect Khal Stephen. Furthermore, Cleveland’s problem isn’t pitching. Despite finishing .500 in August, the Guardians enjoyed a clean sweep in the main batting categories, finishing last in runs, average, OBP, and slugging. Between the putrid attack and the losses of pitchers Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase due to indefinite absence, it’s amazing that Cleveland’s hopes are still slightly alive. That’s the beauty of the American League this year. It’s hard to be out of contention.

19. Arizona Diamondbacks

Average wins: 78.9 (Previous: 77.3, 21st)
In playoffs: 0.5% (Previous: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)

Consequences of the deadline: One can argue whether the Twins or the Diamondbacks negotiated more value from the now at the deadline, but it’s one of the two. For Arizona, the losses of Kelly, Naylor, Suárez, Miller, and Grichuk have… helped? It’s difficult to claim that Arizona has played better because of those departures, but the Snakes have played better. The Diamondbacks had a 17-12 record in August and were in the top 10 in both run scoring and run prevention. Suárez’s replacement, Blaze Alexander, has taken off offensively, while on the pitching side, the bullpen has gotten into shape thanks to the work of off-the-radar guys.20. St. Louis Cardinals

Win rate: 78.1 (Previous: 79.4, 18th)
In playoffs: 0.4% (Previous: 2.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.1%)

Consequences of the deadline: The Cardinals followed a standard route last month, negotiating with upcoming free agents and waiving short-term additions. The approach adheres to St. Louis’ plan to treat the 2025 season as a minor nuisance, regardless of whether the team on the field clings to marginal contention. The losses of those traded, even closer Helsley, given his performance in New York, have had no effect on short-term performance. The Cardinals are still moving through the middle as they were, waiting for next season. In a way, it might have been easier for their fans if the Cardinals had simply hit rock bottom politely.

21. Miami Marlins

Average wins: 75.8 (Previous: 78.1, 20th)
In playoffs: 0.0% (Previous: 1.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)

Consequences of the deadline: The Marlins casually played at the deadline instead of moving forward by trading Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, for now. So the rest of the season is about improving and creating opportunities for young players like outfielder Jakob Marsee, who had a great August in the relative void of a standard Marlins season. Unfortunately, one of the hopefuls will not be the deadline addition Ryan Gusto, who was destroyed in three Marlins starts before going down with a shoulder injury. Hopefully in September we will see more prospects like Victor Mesa Jr. and Andrew Pintar.

22. Los Angeles Angels

Average wins: 75.4 (Previous: 76.0, 23rd)
In playoffs: 0.0% (Previous: 1.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)

Consequences of the deadline: The Angels’ soft addition at the deadline has worked, to some extent, in that bullpen additions Andrew Chafin and Luis García have been airtight. Thus, a bottom-five bullpen has been in the middle of the pack since the end of July. But a 6.35 rotation ERA and a 0.665 OPS by the offense in August have made that development debatable. The early results of Oswald Peraza, former Yankees player, have not been good, as he has not only struggled to keep his OPS above 0.500, but also conceded eight runs on the mound during a cleanup appearance. The Angels’ season seems to be going nowhere.

23. Athletics

Average wins: 74.2 (Previous: 69.5, 27th)
In playoffs: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)

Consequences of the Deadline: The A’s went 3-24 between May 6 and June 4, a month that sunk what looked like a possible wild-card bid. Bad months can’t be erased from the record, but it’s worth considering that, outside of that slump, the Athletics are 10 games over .500. The impact at the deadline – trading Miller and getting elite prospect Leo De Vries in return – was a long-term play. Despite the short-term hit, the A’s had the fifth-best net runs per game in the majors during August and their relievers posted the best ERA in baseball. The Athletics are improving.

24. Atlanta Braves