MLB: Executives Predict the Market: Will Tucker Get $400M? Yankees, Dodgers and More

The MLB Hot Market: Predictions and Key Moves

The MLB market heated up early this offseason, and everything indicates that the action is far from over. The moves began with the Seattle Mariners securing Josh Naylor, followed by a trade between the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles. The situation intensified with an exchange between the Texas Rangers and New York Mets, involving Marcus Semien and Brandon Nimmo, before the Boston Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals. In anticipation of the continuation of activity after Thanksgiving, we surveyed 16 MLB executives to learn their perspectives on what the future of the market holds.

Will Kyle Tucker Surpass $400 Million?

One of the central questions was whether Kyle Tucker would receive a contract exceeding $400 million. The survey revealed an interesting picture:

• Yes: 6
• No: 10

As for who might sign him, the New York Yankees led the predictions, followed closely by the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays.

• New York Yankees: 6
• Los Angeles Dodgers: 4
• Toronto Blue Jays: 3
• Detroit Tigers: 1
• Philadelphia Phillies: 1
• Orioles: 1

Despite the division of opinion on the exact figure, most of the executives who voted “No” to a contract of more than $400 million agreed that the difference would be minimal. Some suggested that, if Tucker had been healthy throughout the season, the figure might have started with a five, instead of a four.

“I see a $350 million contract over 10 years. My prediction is that the Yankees will secure it.”

An MLB executive

Another executive considered that the agreement could be similar to that of Alex Bregman, with a short-term contract, a higher annual salary and exit options, with the hope of having an outstanding season in 2026 or 2027 and returning to the free agent market at a better time. The Yankees seem well positioned for such an agreement.

Where Will the Star Pitchers Sign?

Another crucial topic was where the three most experienced starting pitchers in MLB would sign. The answers were as follows:

• Framber Valdez: Blue Jays 5, New York Mets 4, Orioles 4, Tigers 1, Houston Astros 1
• Dylan Cease: Mets 6, Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 2, Atlanta Braves 2, Chicago Cubs 1, San Francisco Giants 1
• Ranger Suarez: Red Sox 4, Phillies 4, Blue Jays 3, Braves 2, Giants 1

The Blue Jays emerged as possible destinations for each pitcher, as executives believe they will seek to reinforce their team after their outstanding performance in the previous season. The Mets were also considered, given that their pitching staff struggled at the end of the season.

Tatsuya Imai: Where Will the Japanese Ace Go?

The survey also addressed the question of which team would sign Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai.

• Giants: 5
• Yankees: 3
• Dodgers: 3
• Cubs: 2
• Blue Jays: 1
• Padres: 1

The Giants led the predictions, followed by the Yankees and the Dodgers. The teams that have traditionally shown interest in Japanese players coming to MLB for the first time are those with an advantage. Imai, at 27 years old, is the right age for a multi-year contract and could benefit from the success of other Japanese players.

Who Will Return to Their Original Teams?

Executives were asked which players, among Schwarber, Bregman, Bellinger, and Alonso, would return to their original teams. The results were:

• Schwarber: 7
• Alonso: 4
• Bregman: 4

It’s striking that no one predicted Bellinger would return to the Yankees, which could open the door for Tucker in New York. As for Schwarber, Alonso, and Bregman, voters considered them crucial players for their respective teams.

Surprising Contracts and Candidates for Changes

The survey also revealed which contracts could generate surprise. Edwin Diaz, Bo Bichette, Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Lucas Giolito were some of the names mentioned. Age was a common factor among them, as most are over 30 years old. As for trade candidates, the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal was a topic of discussion, with most executives opting to “let the situation play out.” Joe Ryan, Freddy Peralta, and Ketel Marte were other names mentioned as potential trade candidates.

Which Small Market Teams Will Make an Impact?

Finally, the survey inquired about which small market teams could make noise in the market. The Pirates led the predictions, followed by the Reds, Royals, Marlins, and Rays. The Pirates are expected to invest in the squad, while other teams could seek to improve their performance.