MLB Draft 2025: Kiley McDaniel Predicts the First Two Rounds

MLB 2025 Draft Analysis: Predictions and Perspectives

The 2025 MLB Draft is just around the corner, and anticipation is growing. With the first round starting on Sunday, it’s time to analyze the projections of how this exciting event will unfold. Here’s a detailed analysis of the possible selections and the teams’ strategies. The 2025 MLB Draft kicks off on Sunday, and here’s my projection of how the first round could unfold. Uncertainty is high this year, especially with the [Washington Nationals](/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationals) having the first pick after the dismissal of their general manager. Without a clear favorite, attention is focused on young Ethan Holliday, son of former Major League player Matt Holliday, and several college left-handed pitchers. What direction will the Nationals take? How will the [Los Angeles Angels](/mlb/team/_/name/laa/los-angeles-angels) and the [Seattle Mariners](/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-mariners) respond with picks number 2 and 3?

This is my penultimate projection of the 2025 draft cycle, with an updated version 3.1 to be published hours before the first round begins on Sunday. And remember, this is the order in which I believe the players will come off the board, while my draft rankings are the order in which I would select the players.

Additional coverage: Draft Analysis 2.0 | The big question for the 30 teamsView: Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN

Key Selections and Team Strategies

• No. 1: Washington Nationals

Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. Uncertainty surrounds this selection following the dismissal of General Manager Mike Rizzo. Speculation suggests that Anderson could be the pick, with a 55% probability, followed by Ethan Holliday with a 35% and Eli Willits/others with a 10%.

• No. 2: Los Angeles Angels

Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Doyle has been linked to this position for a while, and with good reason: he would likely accept a below-market deal and is a strong candidate to be the first player from this class to reach the Major Leagues. Given his dominant fastball, he could strike out Major League hitters right now, and the Angels could be aggressive and let him do just that, and then see if they can turn him into a long-term starter.

Kade Anderson appears to be the Angels’ primary target and, therefore, would likely be the pick here if he weren’t number 1. In this scenario, I believe this decision will come down to Doyle, Jamie Arnold, or a larger cut versus Ike Irish’s position. I give Doyle the slight edge. Los Angelinos adoran a Daniel Pierce, pero probablemente no puedan ficharlo. Estén atentos a Mason Pike y Sam Horn como los objetivos iniciales junto con básicamente cualquier brazo universitario con riesgo de relevista en selecciones posteriores: Brian Curley, Cade Obermueller, Chase Shores, Tanner Franklin, A.J. Russell, Lucas Kelly y Mason Morris.

• No. 3: Seattle Mariners

Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA). The trend seems to be changing with the Mariners now willing to pick Hernandez here, despite the inconsistent results of the preparatory rights in the draft, after surveying a wide group of players. Jamie Arnold would be the runner-up and I think Kade Anderson is the best player on their list, so those three are the main targets. Ike Irish, Aiva Arquette, Liam Doyle, and JoJo Parker seem to be the secondary options, I think in that order. Keep an eye on Lucas Kelly, Josh Flores, and Jake Munroe in subsequent selections.

• No. 4: Colorado Rockies

Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK). It has long been rumored, perhaps since the night of the draft lottery at the MLB winter meetings, that Holliday would not get past this selection, both because of the team’s preferences and the history of his father Matt in Colorado. If Holliday isn’t number 1 for the Nationals, this is his most likely landing spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got the biggest bonus in this draft and the biggest bonus in this draft era to engineer this outcome for the Rockies. If Holliday is the overall number 1, Kade Anderson and Jamie Arnold are believed to be the other top options here, likely in that order. If all three players go before the Rockies, I believe it would be Kyson Witherspoon or possibly Aiva Arquette as the selection.

• No. 5: St. Louis Cardinals

Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK). I think the Cardinals’ list looks pretty similar to mine, with Kade Anderson and Ethan Holliday in the top two spots, then Willits in third. I think he’ll be the pick here in this scenario, but the other top options would be a coin flip with Jamie Arnold, or a slight reach with Ike Irish.

• No. 6: Pittsburgh Pirates

Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. It seems the Pirates will choose Seth Hernandez here, if he doesn’t go at number 3 with the Mariners. As a secondary plan, I believe Pittsburgh is leaning towards a college hitter. Arquette has been mentioned here for months, with Ike Irish as an alternative, and pitcher Jamie Arnold is another target if he gets here.

• No. 7: Miami Marlins

JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS). I believe Miami is looking to sign Eli Willits and has Parker as a backup option with Jamie Arnold as a target if he gets away. I’ll lean towards Parker over Arnold here, but I think, in this scenario, those two players will go in these next two picks in some order. Billy Carlson, Ike Irish, and Andrew Fischer seem to be the other backup options. Keep an eye on Mason Pike, Will Rhine, and Hunter Allen in subsequent selections.

• No. 8: Toronto Blue Jays

Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. Arnold entered the year as the top prospect on my list, but he was hit a bit harder than expected, so team opinions vary a bit more than one might expect. As I said before, I think JoJo Parker and Arnold are neck and neck in this scenario, but Arnold has a real chance to go number 2 or number 3. Ike Irish and Kyson Witherspoon are secondary options.

• No. 9: Cincinnati Reds

Ike Irish, RF, Auburn. Irish is going to go here, but I admit I’m not sure who the Reds are going with here in case Seth Hernandez and Liam Doyle are not available. Steele Hall, Billy Carlson, and Kyson Witherspoon are the other primary options connected here, while Josh Hammond is a more remote possibility and JoJo Parker is connected but also off the board in this scenario. Stay tuned for Evan Hankins in a later selection.

• No. 10: Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA). Carlson is in play to varying degrees in most selections starting at number 5, with a floor around number 12 and hot spots from 8 to 10, so this is just what you should expect. The White Sox may be highest on JoJo Parker and his brother Jacob, but I don’t think they can get JoJo down to their selection. Steele Hall, Josh Hammond, and Gavin Fien are also tied here in a very loaded mix of prep hitters, with prep lefty Kruz Schoolcraft as a remote/later possibility. Keep an eye on Gavin Turley and Mason Ligenza in subsequent selections.

• No. 11: Athletics

Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma. Like the Reds, I have a few names linked to the A’s selection, but this is the point where the draft is much harder to predict. I think the A’s are leaning towards pitching, and Witherspoon’s floor is right around here, so he represents good value.

Yes, I believe this will be a college player, and Brendan Summerhill, Wehiwa Aloy, and Gavin Fien (the A’s selected his older brother Dylan last year) have been mentioned here all spring. Keep an eye on Jase Mitchell, Micah Bucknam, and Tanner Franklin in later selections.

• No. 12: Texas Rangers

Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL). I think this is where Billy Carlson definitely stops if he slides. Hall appears to be the next target, with Gavin Fien also mentioned, so it seems likely he’ll be a prep position player. Keep an eye on Talon Haley, Mason Pike, Josh Owens, and Micah Bucknam in subsequent selections.

• No. 13: San Francisco Giants

Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona. I believe this selection feels like a left-handed hitter from the college ranks (like last year’s selection, James Tibbs). Whether Summerhill, this point is the floor for Ike Irish, and a possible highlight for Andrew Fischer or Charles Davalan. Keep an eye out for Will Rhine and Taitn Gray in later selections.

• No. 14: Tampa Bay Rays

Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL). The Rays still have two additional selections besides the three assigned on Day 1, even after [trading one](/mlb/story/_/id/45710338/orioles-trade-reliever-bryan-baker-rays-draft-pick) for reliever Bryan Baker on Thursday. I think their main targets here are Billy Carlson and Steele Hall, but both are not available in this scenario, so the Rays can try another Xavier Isaac gambit: take a guy they really like who probably won’t be available in their next selection and isn’t expected to go so high, then save some money and distribute it to other selections. I have the Rays linked to a number of position players preparing for later selections and it seems this strategy would give them at least one more of those than they would get if they played this selection directly, perhaps with Josh Hammond or prospects of similar name Gavin Fien or Gavin Kilen, three other players in whom the Rays have interest. Keep an eye out for Dean Moss, Matthew Fisher, Taitn Gray, Sean Gamble, Landon Harmon, Brady Ebel, and Brisen Tweedy in subsequent selections.

• No. 15: Boston Red Sox

Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA). Fien has a good chance of landing here, as has been rumored for a long time. I think he is underrated due to an irregular spring after being one of the best hitters on the summer circuit. Xavier Neyens and Gavin Kilen (whom the Red Sox almost signed out of high school) have also been connected here.

• No. 16: Minnesota Twins

Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee. Now we’re pretty sure in the realm of making informed guesses based on a team’s history and what other teams think they’ll do. Minnesota likes this type of player, a college infielder with medium tools, medium build with a solid performance record (Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Kyle DeBarge, Tanner Schobel, Kaelen Culpepper in the first three rounds of the last three drafts alone). I believe this is where Gage Wood comes into play, a bit lower than some fans may expect, due to some concerns about his shoulder issue earlier this spring and a possible long-term relief adjustment. Caden Bodine, Tyler Bremner, and Marek Houston are also mentioned here.

• No. 17: Chicago Cubs

Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC). The Cubs lean towards exit velocity/athleticism when it comes to high school students and Hammond is one of the best examples in the class. This is right in the middle of their range, along with Xavier Neyens, a similar, left-handed version of Hammond who is also connected to the Cubs. Arkansas teammates Wehiwa Aloy and Gage Wood are also mentioned here along with Tyler Bremner. Keep an eye out for Cooper Flemming, Josh Flores, and Jake Munroe in subsequent selections.

• No. 18: Arizona Diamondbacks

Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina. Rumors are intensifying that Bodine will be the pick here (if available) to then set up some prep selections after. Josh Hammond, Tate Southisene, and Slater de Brun are the main targets of that group in this selection and the next.

• No. 19: Baltimore Orioles

Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas. After Thursday’s trade for another compensatory pick, giving Baltimore a total of three, this pick is a bit more likely to be a college player at or below the position, as the O’s will likely collect high school players on the board unless they can float a premium talent to this pick. Aloy fits the Orioles’ trends and is a good value here. I think they are targeting Jaden Fauske, Dax Kilby, Tate Southisene, and Xavier Neyens in those compensatory picks and then Mason Ligenza, Will Rhine, and Ethan Rogers after that.

• No. 20: Milwaukee Brewers

Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest. I have the Brew Crew linked to three shortstops here: Daniel Pierce, Coy James, and Houston. James looks like he’ll go in the compensation round and would be the surprise first-round pick, as Milwaukee pulled off last year by picking Braylon Payne. This is roughly in the middle of Pierce and Houston’s ranges.

• No. 21: Houston Astros

Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M. Houston is primarily linked to power-hitting prospects with outstanding athletic tests here like Xavier Neyens, Tate Southisene, and Wehiwa Aloy. Charles Davalan and Slater de Brun are two players who don’t fit into that group that the Astros are also in on.

Keep an eye out for Jase Mitchell, Matt Ferrara, Matt Miura, C.J. Hughes, Josh Flores, and Tyler Finkbeiner in subsequent selections.

• No. 22: Atlanta Braves

Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. Bremner is in the mix for some teams selecting ahead of here, but I think this is his likely stopping point. Gage Wood, Marek Houston, Tate Southisene, Josh Hammond, and Daniel Pierce are also mentioned here. Keep an eye out for Ty Peeples, Jaiden LoRe, and Micah Bucknam in subsequent selections.

• No. 23: Sporting Kansas City

Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas. This would be the floor for Josh Hammond if he made it this far and it seems like it will be a good landing spot for Wood, likely paired with a high school player in the next Kansas City pick at number 28.

• No. 24: Detroit Tigers

Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA). I believe Detroit takes a high school prospect with at least one, if not both, of their first two picks, here and at No. 34 overall. Coy James could also be a surprise pick here, as could Milwaukee’s first pick, but I think it’s more likely that one of them takes James in the compensatory round.

Jaden Fauske (no longer on this roster), Aaron Watson, Dax Kilby, Kayson Cunningham, Slater de Brun, Tate Southisene, and Cooper Flemming are linked to Detroit’s first two picks from the high school side. Andrew Fischer, Anthony Eyanson, and J.B. Middleton are college players linked to these two picks.

• No. 25: San Diego Padres

Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA). The Padres love to swing for upside and are linked to names that fit this year, with Young as the most extreme version. He has an 80-grade power projection and a frame fit, but big questions about his contact ability. Kruz Schoolcraft, Kayson Cunningham, Dax Kilby, Josh Owens, and Slater de Brun is my best guess as to the order in which they have their other top high school targets ranked. Anthony Eyanson, A.J. Russell, and Ethan Conrad are college players still available here that the Padres have some interest in selecting. Keep an eye out for Will Rhine, Angel Laya, Dixon Williams, and Josh Tate in subsequent selections.

• No. 26: Philadelphia Phillies

Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN). This would be another curveball, but the Phillies probably can’t bring Fisher to their second selection and would be ready for a play above the position in their next selection(s), similar to what they did last year. Andrew Fischer is also mentioned here. Alec Blair (a top 100 basketball recruit in the country) and Sean Gamble are among the prep position players they could target to move down the board.

• No. 27: Cleveland Guardians

Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV). It’s difficult to read the Guardians here and they could go below the position with a college player, like Kane Kepley, Devin Taylor or Andrew Fischer, to set up a spending spree on the table with their additional picks. Aaron Watson and Dax Kilby are other prep targets who won’t make it to their next picks. Keep an eye on Miguel Sime Jr., Jase Mitchell, Cade Crossland, and Luke Hill in subsequent selections.

• No. 28: Kansas City Royals

Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL). Watson is one of the many prep arms linked to the Royals, like Matthew Fisher (if he’s still on the board), and Watson should go in the next few picks if not the selection here. Anthony Eyanson is also a popular name here. Tate Southisene, Angel Cervantes, and Malachi Witherspoon are also connected to the Royals.

• No. 29: Arizona Diamondbacks

Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR). Tate Southisene (selected at pick 27 in this scenario), de Brun, and Kayson Cunningham are the primary targets here, particularly if the Diamondbacks take a college player with their first selection, and Arizona should get one of them here. It will be difficult to sign, but watch out for Ryan Mitchell in a later selection, or possibly even here if his board explodes.

• No. 30: Baltimore Orioles

Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (Wa.). Neyens runs the risk of going in his teens or early 20s, but the firepower of his bonus pool should allow them to float him until this selection.

• No. 31: Baltimore Orioles

Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee. Fischer could go much higher, but should find a home around here if he’s still on the board.

• No. 32: Milwaukee Brewers

Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (Texas). This is a great value for the Brewers, which is what they do more often than almost any other team. There are a few spots above here, like Detroit, Philadelphia, Arizona, and San Diego, that Cunningham could go to, with a floor around here, so Milwaukee might need to go above the spot to bring Cunningham here. Jaden Fauske (no longer on this roster), Coy James, Charles Davalan, Devin Taylor, and Cooper Flemming are mentioned with the Brewers in this selection. The Brewers are linked to a number of players on the table: Blaine Bullard, Luke Hill, Brady Ebel, Remo Indomenico, C.J. Hughes, Tyler Finkbeiner, and Brisen Tweedy.

• No. 33: Boston Red Sox

Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee. Dax Kilby, Michael Oliveto, and Xavier Neyens could also land here. Keep an eye out for Kaleb Wing and Peter Mershon in subsequent selections.

• No. 34: Detroit Tigers

Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (N.C.). I believe this is the most likely landing spot for James. Dax Kilby, Cooper Flemming, Anthony Eyanson, and J.B. Middleton are all that remain from the list mentioned in his previous selection. Keep an eye out for Jake Munroe, Caleb Leys, Jaiden LoRe, and Ethan Rogers in subsequent selections.

• No. 35: Seattle Mariners

Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas. Root is in play in several spots in the 20s and 30s and will likely go in the 40s if he lasts beyond this selection. Max Belyeu and Patrick Forbes are also mentioned here. If the Mariners want to take three pitchers with their first three picks, there’s a chance Malachi Witherspoon will still be there in the second round.

• No. 36: Minnesota Twins

Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana. Taylor’s floor appears to be the Mets’ two picks after this, so this is good value for Minnesota. Michael Oliveto and Charles Davalan are other targets still on the board, while Xavier Neyens and Jaden Fauske are no longer in this scenario. Be aware of a possible overpayment in a subsequent selection at Ty Peeples.

• No. 37: Baltimore Orioles

Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA). I believe that most of the potential targets in the compensation and second rounds were part of the Orioles’ motivation to add this selection from the Rays. Kilby’s floor is in a couple of selections, so this is another good value.

Stay tuned for Landyn Vidourek in a later selection.

• No. 38: Mets de New York

Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville. Forbes has interest in the 20s and 30s and will likely go at the end of the compensation round. Devin Taylor, Zach Root, and Marcus Phillips are unavailable, but they also fit here. J.B. Middleton seems to be the runner-up. Keep an eye on Tanner Franklin, Josh Flores, and Wyatt Vincent in subsequent selections.

• No. 39: New York Yankees

J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss. This would be the floor for Andrew Fischer and probably Dax Kilby. Max Belyeu, Michael Oliveto, and A.J. Russell are some of the other targets that are possibilities here, as are the college players who go right after this in Anthony Eyanson, Charles Davalan, and Malachi Witherspoon.

Keep an eye on Ethan Rogers, Matt Ferrara, and Sam Horn in subsequent selections.

• No. 40: Los Angeles Dodgers

Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson. There’s a rumor that if both are on the board, the Dodgers will take Jack Bauer and Quentin Young in these two picks, literally the two players with the highest ceiling in the draft. For the sake of entertainment, I hope that happens.

Because Young was selected earlier in this projection (as were L.A. Coy James, Marcus Phillips, Aaron Watson, and J.B. Middleton’s targets), Cannarella fits and