The final “Stock Watch” of the regular season has arrived. Before the next one, we will already know who will be the 2025 World Series champion, and we will be immersed in another “Hot Stove” season.
With the Milwaukee Brewers leading the standings for the second consecutive month, let’s analyze this surprising fact to make some observations about this year’s competition:
- The budget matters, but it’s no excuse. The likely playoff key seems loaded with big markets and big spenders, but teams like the Brewers and the Kansas City Royals eliminate excuses from those who lament baseball’s economic disparity. Although we should seek to level the playing field, teams still have to try to win.
- There’s a solid chance we’ll see a champion we’ve never seen before. Only five teams are left without World Series titles. One of them is the Brewers, whose chances of ending that drought are the highest in baseball. Two others are the San Diego Padres and the Seattle Mariners, both with chances of making the playoffs. Together, these three clubs have about a 28% chance of winning this year’s title. In other words, there’s more than a one-in-four chance that a fanbase that has suffered a lot can celebrate a parade in a couple of months.
With the MLB trade deadline already passed, let’s take a look at the recent situation of the 30 teams, with a focus on how their moves (or lack thereof) have worked (or not) so far.
Teams Analysis
1. Milwaukee BrewersAverage wins: 98.7 (Previous: 95.9, 1st)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Previous: 99.2%)
Champions: 18.3% (Previous: 11.3%)
After the deadline: Milwaukee stayed quiet at the deadline and hasn’t gotten much from its additions. Backup catcher Danny Jansen hasn’t hit since arriving, while reliever Shelby Miller has performed regularly in a medium-intensity role. However, Milwaukee has the best record and run differential in baseball since the deadline. Sometimes, you shouldn’t change what’s good. If closer Trevor Megill’s injury persists, it could be argued that Milwaukee should have been more aggressive in seeking a back-end bullpen reliever. First, we must wait for the Brewers’ bullpen to actually struggle, because Milwaukee always has an answer when it comes to filling gaps in the roster.
2. Philadelphia PhilliesAverage wins: 93.8 (Previous: 92.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Previous: 96.8%)
Champions: 10.6% (Previous: 7.8%)
After the deadline: Dave Dombrowski opted for quality over quantity at the deadline and it has paid off. Harrison Bader has performed great while playing almost every day in center field. Jhoan Duran has not been perfect, but he has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for, changing the dynamics of the bullpen, now and heading into October. It took Duran a month to tie for the Phillies’ saves lead, a period during which he allowed no walks or home runs. The additions continue even after the painful loss of Zack Wheeler. Without giving up anything, Dombrowski also signed Walker Buehler on Sunday after Buehler was released by the Red Sox.
3. Chicago CubsAverage wins: 93.3 (Previous: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Previous: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.2% (Previous: 13.6%)
After the deadline: Chicago’s quiet deadline irked experts, and the reaction hasn’t softened given the issues of the few additions the Cubs made, and the continued distance between them and the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cubs might want to stop signing infielders at the deadline. Last year, they signed Isaac Paredes, who flopped as a Cub, then moved on and was back to his old self this year with the Astros. This time, Willi Castro has gone from being a hitter above average with Minnesota to almost unplayable with the Cubs, at least at the plate, as part of Chicago’s overall offensive slide.
4. Los Angeles DodgersAverage wins: 92.9 (Previous: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Previous: 99.4%)
Champions: 10.6% (Previous: 15.4%)
After the deadline: Los Angeles’ approach at the deadline was more akin to that of a team debating between adding and subtracting than what the Dodgers actually are: a talent-laden, mega-rich defending champion looking to repeat. Alex Call has helped as an extra outfielder who plays against lefties, but reliever Brock Stewart has struggled. Primarily, the Dodgers have leaned on improved pitching health over the last month. Their revived pitchers have kept the Dodgers at an elite level. For the rest of the season, if Los Angeles can match their first-half hitting with their second-half pitching, the Dodgers will enter the postseason as the giant we always thought they were.
5. Detroit TigersAverage wins: 92.9 (Previous: 93.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Previous: 99.2%)
Champions: 11.3% (Previous: 11.3%)
After the deadline: The Tigers focused heavily on pitching at the deadline, with a particular focus on candidates for positive regression. It has worked for the bullpen, where Kyle Finnegan in particular has looked like a different pitcher than he was for Washington. The results of starters Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack have been mixed. Detroit has played mediocre baseball over the last month, largely due to an offense that has declined a bit and was not addressed in the trade market. The Tigers are doing well in the race for the American League Central Division, but are in a tough battle for a number 1 spot with Toronto.
6. Toronto TilesAverage wins: 91.7 (Previous: 90.7, 6th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Previous: 92.9%)
Champions: 7.7% (Previous: 5.3%)
After the deadline: A leaky bullpen has prevented the Blue Jays from keeping their American League East Division rivals at bay, and as we enter the final month, Toronto could end up with a No. 1 seed or could be a visiting team in the wild card round. The impact of the deadline has been mixed. Shane Bieber looks like Shane Bieber, an undeniable boost. But in a bullpen that features a closer (Jeff Hoffman) with 29 saves and a sub-replacement bWAR, the additions of Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland have yet to pay off. If Toronto’s bullpen picks up the pace, this is a complete team.
7. San Diego PadresAverage wins: 90.6 (Previous: 90.2, 7th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Previous: 89.0%)
Champions: 4.0% (Previous: 4.5%)
After the deadline: The Padres outplayed the Dodgers a couple of times in August, only to fall behind their nemesis. A.J. Preller’s deadline haul has achieved its main goal, which was to shore up the gaps in the roster and raise San Diego’s level. The exception to that description, the addition of Mason Miller to an already strong bullpen, seems very much a ceiling raiser. The only objection could be in the rotation, where those the Padres traded away (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) have outperformed those Preller acquired (Néstor Cortés, JP Sears). But Freddy Fermin, acquired for Bergert and Kolek, stabilized the catcher position.
8. New York YankeesAverage wins: 90.5 (Previous: 88.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 98.9% (Previous: 87.2%)
Champions: 10.6% (Previous: 8.0%)
After the deadline: The Yankees’ trajectory changed abruptly during the second half of August, a month they finished as one of the hottest teams in baseball. Behind a revitalized offense and a consistent rotation, New York is back in contention for the American League East crown, a No. 1 spot, the whole pinstriped affair. But the deadline-infused bullpen needs to come together consistently, or Yankees fans will enter October in a state of even greater anxiety than usual. If it weren’t for the solid work done so far by former Pirate David Bednar, New York’s work to reinforce the relief corps could look even worse.
9. Boston Red SoxAverage wins: 89.7 (Previous: 88.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 97.9% (Previous: 87.6%)
Champions: 6.7% (Previous: 5.5%)
After the deadline: Boston’s additions of pitchers Steven Matz and Dustin May didn’t exactly scream “go for it!” for a team that had positioned itself for a playoff run at the end of July. May and the early-season addition of Jordan Hicks haven’t made an impact, but Matz has been impeccable in a booming bullpen. Boston is still playing well, and the rise of rotation prospect Payton Tolle is an injection of energy for that unit. The Red Sox needed a power bat, but those were scarce. The bottom line is that Boston hasn’t lost ground since the last time we met.
10. Houston AstrosAverage wins: 88.1 (Previous: 89.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 85.3% (Previous: 88.0%)
Champions: 3.6% (Previous: 6.1%)
After the deadline: What they will think about Houston’s attempt to bolster its offense at the deadline with the additions of Carlos Correa, Jesús Sánchez and Ramón Urías, has not had the desired effect. Houston had a losing August (13-15) while ranking 26th in net runs per game. Only the Guardians scored fewer runs. Each member of the incoming trio has performed close to projection, so they cannot be blamed, and it is likely that without them, things would be worse. Even so, the Astros enter the final stretch in a more precarious position than they have been in for a long time.
11. New York MetsAverage wins: 86.7 (Previous: 90.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 88.2% (Previous: 89.4%)
Champions: 5.2% (Previous: 4.5%)
After the deadline: The Mets enter September with one of the hottest offenses in baseball. They also have one of the coldest pitching staffs in MLB. Therefore, we’ve seen a lot of games like New York’s 10-8 win over Detroit on Labor Day. The Mets got five quality starts in August. That’s not great, but if the bullpen is working… well, it isn’t. The relievers were 2-for-7 in save opportunities. Deadline acquisitions Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers have been fine, but the big splash was supposed to come from Ryan Helsley, whose August ERA (9.31) was more like a belly flop. There’s a month left to get this right before the playoffs.
12. Seattle MarinersAverage wins: 86.5 (Previous: 86.8, 12th)
In the playoffs: 74.1% (Previous: 70.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Previous: 3.4%)
After the deadline: The process, acquiring Arizona’s Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez’s inner picture, was deservedly praised. The first results are mixed. At first base, Seattle’s OPS before Naylor’s debut with the Mariners was 0.708, mainly Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. Since then, it’s 0.761. Good! At third base, the OPS was 0.664 before Suárez. It’s 0.659 since then. Meh! Seattle has been on neutral ground since the deadline, ranking 18th in runs, despite a great month from Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh’s home run party. The Mariners need their big guns to heat up at the same time, because nothing, not even a playoff spot, is guaranteed.
13. Texas RangersAverage wins: 83.6 (Previous: 84.1, 13th)
In the playoffs: 28.7% (Previous: 43.2%)
Champions: 1.1% (Previous: 2.1%)
After the deadline: Despite a mediocre offensive, Texas targeted pitching before the deadline, taking relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton. The grand prize was starting pitcher Merrill Kelly, who seemed like a luxury addition until Nathan Eovaldi’s injury. The Rangers have relied on Kelly and he has responded. That hasn’t been the case for the relievers, and for most of August, Texas’ bullpen prevented the club from really catching fire. Texas has heated up lately, but now faces most, if not all, of September without Eovaldi, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien. Manager Bruce Bochy will need to be in Hall of Fame form.
14. Kansas City RoyalsAverage wins: 82.5 (Previous: 80.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 11.3% (Previous: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Previous: 0.1%)
After the deadline: The Royals continue to undermine the excuses of the less aggressive clubs at the lower economic levels of baseball. The threshold isn’t that high. Just try. Kansas City’s offense for most of the season was a hodgepodge of players with negative regression from 2024, and obvious, gaping holes. The Royals, seven games under .500 near the end of June, added anyway, raising their level with the likes of Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk, and Mike Yastrzemski. They also bolstered an injury-riddled rotation with Bergert and Kolek. Bottom line: The Royals have a lot to play for during the final stretch. A return to the playoffs is still in play.
15. Cincinnati RedsAverage wins: 81.6 (Previous: 82.3, 14th)
In the playoffs: 6.8% (Previous: 12.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Previous: 0.4%)
After the deadline: The acquisition of reliever Zack Littell by the Reds seemed strange to me and, frankly, still is. He’s been pretty good. But Cincinnati has a lot of “pretty good” when it comes to the rotation. The Reds have candidates for much better than that behind pretty good. Anyway, the additions for the lineup have been good as a chef’s kiss. Miguel Andújar has hit like the peak level of Miguel Cabrera. Ke’Bryan Hayes has shown his elite defense and combined it with an offensive level that adds up to a really good player. If the Reds don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be due to deficiencies at the deadline.
16. San Francisco GiantsAverage wins: 81.6 (Previous: 81.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 4.8% (Previous: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.1% (Previous: 0.2%)
After the deadline: The Giants entered soft-dump mode at the deadline. They weren’t playing well, and although their odds made it possible to reach the playoffs, the trajectory wasn’t good. A month later, the Giants’ position hasn’t changed, they are still a marginal playoff contender, but some of their acquisitions have already contributed. José Butto has been very good from the bullpen, and Drew Gilbert, although he struck out a lot, showed some power and is acclimating to the majors. The Giants are offering a glimpse of what they will be next season, and they have given their fans reasons to watch the final stretch with interest.
17. Tampa Bay RaysAverage wins: 80.8 (Previous: 80.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 3.6% (Previous: 10.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Previous: 0.4%)
After the deadline: Once again, the Rays’ deadline was about preparing for next season without completely raising the white flag in the current one. As you can see from the unchanged win projection, things have moved along the same path, although staying the course has come with a decrease in playoff odds. The new catchers, Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes, together have hit less than a pitcher prior to the universal DH. But the various departures have created opportunities for Feduccia, Carson Williams, and Everson Pereira, and that’s the general idea. A miraculous wild card entry is not, for now, totally out of the question.
18. Cleveland GuardiansAverage wins: 79.4 (Previous: 79.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Previous: 6.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.1%)
After the deadline: Having Bieber around for Cleveland’s long-term postseason bet would be nice, but the judgment on the deal with Toronto is years away and pending the development of prospect Khal Stephen. Also, Cleveland’s problem isn’t pitching. Despite finishing .500 in August, the Guardians enjoyed a clean sweep in the main batting categories, finishing last in runs, average, OBP, and slugging. Between the putrid attack and the losses of pitchers Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase due to indefinite leave, it’s surprising that Cleveland’s hopes are still slightly alive. That’s the beauty of the American League this year. It’s hard to be out of contention.
19. Arizona DiamondbacksAverage wins: 78.9 (Previous: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 0.5% (Previous: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)
After the deadline: An argument can be made for whether the Twins or Diamondbacks traded for more value at this point at the deadline, but it’s one of the two. For Arizona, the losses of Kelly, Naylor, Suarez, Miller, and Grichuk have… helped? It’s difficult to claim that Arizona has played better because of those departures, but the Snakes have played better. The Diamondbacks went 17-12 in August and were in the top 10 in both run scoring and run prevention. Suarez’s replacement, Blaze Alexander, has taken off offensively, while on the pitching side, the bullpen has heated up thanks to the work of off-the-radar guys.
20. St. Louis CardinalsAverage wins: 78.1 (Previous: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Previous: 2.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.1%)
After the deadline: The Cardinals followed a standard route last month, trading upcoming free agents and waiving short-term additions. The approach adheres to St. Louis’ plan of treating the 2025 season as a minor nuisance, regardless of whether the team on the field clings to marginal contention. The losses from the trades, even closer Helsley, given his performance in New York, have had no effect on short-term performance. The Cardinals continue to move forward in the middle as they were, waiting for next season. Somehow, it might have been easier for their fans if the Cardinals had simply bottomed out politely.
21. Miami MarlinsAverage wins: 75.8 (Previous: 78.1, 20th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Previous: 1.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)
After the deadline: The Marlins casually played at the deadline instead of kicking the can down the road when negotiating with Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, for now anyway. So the rest of the season is about improving and creating opportunities for young players like outfielder Jakob Marsee, who had a great August in the relative void of a standard Marlins season. Unfortunately, one of the hopefuls won’t be deadline reinforcement Ryan Gusto, who was burned in three Marlins starts before falling with a shoulder injury. Hopefully in September we’ll see more prospects like Victor Mesa Jr. and Andrew Pintar.
22. Los Angeles AngelsAverage wins: 75.4 (Previous: 76.0, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Previous: 1.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)
After the deadline: The Angels’ soft additions at the deadline have actually worked, to some extent, as bullpen additions Andrew Chafin and Luis García have been airtight. Thus, a bottom-five bullpen has been in the middle of the pack since the end of July. But a rotation ERA of 6.35 and an OPS of 0.665 by the offense in August have made that development debatable. Early returns on former Yankee Oswald Peraza have not been good, as he has not only struggled to keep his OPS above 0.500, but also conceded eight runs in a cleanup appearance. The Angels’ season seems to be going nowhere.
23. AthletesAverage wins: 74.2 (Previous: 69.5, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)
After the deadline: The Athletics went 3-24 between May 6 and June 4, a month that sunk what looked like a possible wild card bid. Bad months can’t be erased from the record, but it’s worth considering that, outside of that slump, the Athletics are 10 games over .500. The big move at the deadline, trading Miller and getting elite prospect Leo De Vries in return, was a long-term play. Despite the short-term hit, the Athletics had the fifth-best net run figure per game in the majors during August and their relievers posted the best ERA in baseball. The Athletics are improving.
24. Atlanta BravesAverage wins: 74.1 (Previous: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)
After the deadline: The Braves had a winning month after the deadline, but it did little to mitigate a titanically disappointing season in Cobb County. Injuries have continued, as have some pretty crucial performances, such as that of starter Spencer Strider. Michael Harris II has been on fire…
