The 2025 MLB season has presented some predictable elements, such as the dominance of the [Los Angeles Dodgers](/mlb/team/_/name/lad/los-angeles-dodgers), the performance of [Aaron Judge](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/33192/aaron-judge) and the consistency of [Paul Skenes](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/4719507/paul-skenes) on the mound. However, there have also been surprises, both positive and negative. The [Baltimore Orioles](/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles) and the [Atlanta Braves](/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves) have had disappointing campaigns, while [Juan Soto](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/36969/juan-soto) has had a mixed performance with the [New York Mets](/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets). The [Colorado Rockies](/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies) are on track to break the record for most losses in a season. The second half of the season promises excitement, with a fight for the best record between the Dodgers, the [Detroit Tigers](/mlb/team/_/name/det/detroit-tigers) and the [Chicago Cubs](/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs). Several divisions are also tight, and the wild card races could be defined at the last moment. We analyze the performance of the 30 teams, dividing them into six categories based on their playoff potential. MLB experts offer their perspectives for the rest of the season, including win-loss projections.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
[Detroit Tigers](/mlb/team/_/name/det/detroit-tigers)
Record: 59-38 | Final projection: 96-66 Division title probability: 98.6% | Playoff probability: 99.7% | Championship probability: 13.4% The Tigers have stood out for their offense and starting pitching. [Riley Greene](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/42179/riley-greene) leads the offense, while [Tarik Skubal](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/42409/tarik-skubal) seeks to repeat as Cy Young. Players like [Javier Baez](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/32127/javier-baez), [Spencer Torkelson](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/4424286/spencer-torkelson), [Gleyber Torres](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/33804/gleyber-torres), [Casey Mize](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/41167/casey-mize) have performed surprisingly. In the second half, the Tigers will look to reinforce their pitching staff, especially the bullpen. Jackson Jobe’s injury and the possible absence of Alex Cobb are concerns. The bullpen needs to improve to succeed in the playoffs.[Los Angeles Dodgers](/mlb/team/_/name/lad/los-angeles-dodgers)
Record: 58-39 | Final projection: 97-65 Division title probability: 91.8% | Playoffs probability: 99.0% | Championship probability: 16.4% The Dodgers have improved with the return of their starters. Despite the injuries, the team has been boosted by an outstanding offense. The return of Glasnow, Snell, and Ohtani’s performance could elevate the team. The Dodgers need to cover third base and improve the performance of players like Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. They could look for reinforcements in left field.[Chicago Cubs](/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs)
Record: 57-39 | Final projection: 97-65 Division title probability: 79.3% | Playoff probability: 98.6% | Championship probability: 15.4% The Cubs stand out for their dynamic offense. Their ability to score in various ways has kept them competitive. The defense and the bullpen led by Daniel Palencia have been key. The Cubs are expected to maintain their offense in the second half. Management could seek reinforcements before the trade deadline.[Houston Astros](/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astros)
Record: 56-40 | Final projection: 93-69 Division title probability: 81.2% | Playoff probability: 96.4% | Championship probability: 9.2% The Astros seek their ninth consecutive playoff appearance. Despite the changes in the team, they remain contenders. The rotation led by Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, and the bullpen are strong points. The Astros are expected to keep winning. Yordan Alvarez’s return is key to the offense. They need stability in the rotation.[Philadelphia Phillies](/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies)
Record: 55-41 | Final projection: 93-69 Division title probability: 66.7% | Playoff probability: 93.3% | Championship probability: 7.9% The Phillies stand out for their starting rotation, with the best ERA in the league. Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez have been fundamental. The Phillies are looking to stay healthy and could reinforce the bullpen. This is a crucial season for them.[New York Mets](/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets)
Record: 55-42 | Final projection: 90-72 Division title probability: 33.2% | Playoff probability: 80.1% | Championship probability: 4.2% The Mets have had an irregular season. The return of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea is important. The bullpen needs improvements. Juan Soto’s production has boosted the offense. With Soto, Lindor, Alonso, and Nimmo, the top of the lineup is among the best in the league.TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
[New York Yankees](/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees)
Record: 53-43 | Final projection: 92-70 Division title probability: 58.7% | Playoff probability: 93.3% | Championship probability: 13.0% The Yankees could use reinforcements in the rotation, the bullpen, and at third base. Aaron Judge is expected to continue performing at an MVP level. Luis Gil’s return to the rotation will be welcome. General Manager Brian Cashman will look to improve the team before the trade deadline.[Milwaukee Brewers](/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers)
Record: 56-40 | Final projection: 91-71 Division title probability: 18.8% | Playoffs probability: 86.8% | Championship probability: 5.4% The Brewers are competing with a group of young talents. They lead the league in rookie WAR. The offense is balanced and the defense is solid. The rotation is dynamic and deep. The Brewers are a team to be reckoned with.[Toronto Blue Jays](/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays)
Record: 55-41 | Final projection: 89-73 Division title probability: 23.7% | Playoffs probability: 77.5% | Championship probability: 3.0% The Blue Jays have performed well since the end of June. The offense has been key, and they need to rely on hitting for average. They have been successful in closed games. The bullpen has improved. They look like a playoff team.TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE FIGHT
[Seattle Mariners](/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-mariners)
Record: 51-45 | Final projection: 87-75 Division title probability: 16.4% | Playoff probability: 68.8% | Championship probability: 2.8% Cal Raleigh’s performance has been outstanding. The Mariners’ offense has been good, especially away. They need to improve the performance of their rotation. They could look for reinforcements at the trade deadline.[Boston Red Sox](/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox)
Record: 53-45 | Final projection: 86-76 Division title probability: 10.1% | Playoffs probability: 57.3% | Championship probability: 2.0% The Red Sox have performed well after the Rafael Devers trade. Ceddanne Rafaela’s emergence has been key. They need help in pitching. They could be title contenders if they reinforce themselves.[Tampa Bay Rays](/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays)
Record: 50-47 | Final projection: 85-77 Division title probability: 7.6% | Playoffs probability: 51.5% | Championship probability: 2.0% Kevin Cash has been key in the team’s performance. The rotation has been solid.
