Final Analysis of the 2025 MLB Draft: Last Minute Before the Event
The 2025 MLB draft is about to begin, with the clock ticking at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN. It’s time to fine-tune the final details as teams define their strategies for the first day.
Uncertainty is palpable, especially at the top. The Washington Nationals, after the dismissal of their general manager, face a crucial decision with the first overall pick. Without a clear favorite in this draft, the options diversify. Young Ethan Holliday, son of former Major League player Matt Holliday, along with a group of college left-handed pitchers, such as Kade Anderson (LSU), Liam Doyle (Tennessee) and Jamie Arnold (Florida State), are among the top prospects.
What direction will the Nationals take? How will the Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners respond with the number 2 and 3 picks respectively? Below, a last-minute analysis with the most recent changes. For a more detailed analysis of each team’s strategies, see mock draft 3.0.
Remember, this is the order in which players are expected to be selected, while draft rankings reflect the order of player preference.Follow the Draft: Results and analysis of each selection from the first day.Additional Coverage: Mock Draft 3.0 | The big question for the 30 teams.Don’t miss it: Sunday, July 13 at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN.
In recent days, rumors have circulated about the impact of the dismissal of General Manager Mike Rizzo. The feeling in the industry is that Anderson could be the choice, in part because Ethan Holliday seems less likely. In addition, the possibility of an economic agreement with Eli Willits as the main option, although Aiva Arquette is also mentioned. Scott Boras, representative of almost all the players mentioned, will not reveal his cards until the last moment. The price will be a key factor. Landon Harmon is a possible target in later rounds.
A scouting director from a top 10 team commented that we shouldn’t be sure of anything in the first three picks, adding that “there are wars in those locker rooms right now”.
Scouting Director
2. Los Angeles Angels
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee Ranking: 6
It is expected that the Angels will follow the trend of recent drafts, seeking a polished college player with rapid progression, who also represents an economic saving. At least six players have been linked to this selection: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Ike Irish, and Willits. Doyle could even drop to the number 9 or 10 position, which motivates him to negotiate a competitive agreement.
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee’s Liam Doyle one of the best prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
3. Seattle Mariners
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA) Ranking: 4
The strongest rumor is that Tyler Bremner will be the choice, which is reinforced by the analysis, as Bremner and Seth Hernandez are similar in style. Anderson is the number 1 player for Seattle and would be the choice if he were available, although this has a 20-30% probability. If Anderson is not available, the decision could be between Bremner (with the greatest savings), Irish (with smaller savings) or Seth Hernandez (with the least savings). Arquette, Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are also mentioned, but as secondary options.
Bremner could increase his price, which would lead to Hernandez being the choice. The final decision will depend on the last-minute price if Anderson is unavailable.
4. Colorado Rockies
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK) Ranking: 2
Although there have been doubts about whether the Rockies would pay the price to get Holliday, information suggests they will stand firm. If Holliday is not available, the options would be college pitchers like Anderson, Arnold, and Witherspoon, with mentions of Willits and Arquette.
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the best prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK) Ranking: 3
Willits appears to be in play for the first two picks and possibly number 4, so the Cardinals would get him here. Anderson and Holliday are the top targets for this pick, followed by Willits, with Arnold and Irish as possible saving options.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State Ranking: 5
If Seth Hernandez or Eli Willits are available, they could be the choice. The Pirates hope Seattle selects Anderson or a more economical alternative to Hernandez. Otherwise, JoJo Parker, Arnold, Arquette, and Irish are the main options. Arnold has the most last-minute support, but it could also depend on the price.
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Jamie Arnold one of the best prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
7. Miami Marlins
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS) Ranking: 7
The choice seems to be between Parker, Irish and Billy Carlson, with Parker having the advantage.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State Ranking: 9
The Jays would select Parker if he is available and would consider Arnold along with Arquette and Irish if they are still available. The decision seems to be between Arquette and Irish, with Carlson and Witherspoon also under consideration.
9. Cincinnati Reds
Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL) Ranking: 13
Cincinnati appears to be the lower limit if Hernandez or Doyle fall, and otherwise, the Reds appear to be the upper limit for Hall. Irish, Witherspoon, and Carlson are also in the mix.
10. Chicago White Sox
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA) Ranking: 8
Carlson’s range seems to be between 7 and 12, maybe 14. The White Sox really want to get the Parker brothers (JoJo and Jacob), but they can’t get JoJo in this selection.
The White Sox have been very interested in secondary hitters all spring, and Carlson outperforms Gavin Fien.
11. Athletics
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara Ranking: 18
Bremner is gaining ground in this selection, and his lower limit is now the Boston selection at 15th. It’s a bit surprising that he can go ahead of Witherspoon, but Bremner has clearly been receiving interest in the first half of the first round that hadn’t been leaked to the general industry until late. I think this will be a college player, probably a pitcher, with Witherspoon and Summerhill also mentioned here a lot.
12. Texas Rangers
Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX) Ranking: 25
I believe Steele Hall and Billy Carlson are the targets here, but neither makes the selection, so Cunningham becomes the pick, narrowly above Josh Hammond. I heard Cunningham would fit more among the 20-30 range and in recent conversations it is said that he has multiple options in the teens. Like the White Sox, the belief throughout the spring is that the Rangers want a setup hitter here.
13. San Francisco Giants
Ike Irish, RF, Auburn Ranking: 11
Irish is in play in most selections from number 2 to the middle of the first round, but I think his fall would stop here. The Giants have been linked to Marek Houston and Charles Davalan (a remote possibility in this selection, but who would go in the next), and Andrew Fischer has also received some support.
14. Tampa Bay Rays
Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma Ranking: 10
The Rays are linked to position players for later selections and could surprise, as I projected in my previous simulation, by taking Jaden Fauske here. I believe Hall, Billy Carlson, and Cunningham are the main targets and none of them are available in this projection. Witherspoon is from Florida and is a great value, while the Rays still have the opportunity to get Fauske in their next selection.
15. Boston Red Sox
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA) Ranking: 12
I will stick with Fien here as one of the most consistent projections throughout the spring. It seems that Tyler Bremner would be the choice if he arrived here, but that now seems unlikely.
