Cubs Trust in Boyd After Disaster: Analysis of the Loss vs. Brewers

The Chicago Cubs started the first game of the National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers with a 1-0 lead, but quickly saw that lead vanish in the bottom of the first inning, culminating in a 6-1 deficit. The Cubs’ opening pitcher, Matthew Boyd, was the main affected, showing a lack of precision on the mound after only three days of rest. His participation was limited to only eight batters.

It’s unfortunate that it was such a big inning, but that was the difference in today’s game.

Matthew Boyd

Boyd, 34, was removed after an 11-pitch at-bat by Brewers center fielder Blake Perkins, who hit a single that drove in Milwaukee’s fourth run. Cubs manager Craig Counsell decided to pull Boyd after 30 pitches, four hits, and one walk. Boyd was responsible for six runs, although only two were earned due to an error by Nico Hoerner that facilitated the Brewers’ offense. Counsell justified the decision to start Boyd with little rest, mentioning his low number of pitches in the Game 1 victory against the San Diego Padres in the wild card series, and also highlighted his performance as the team’s best starting pitcher during the season. The strategy could have gone wrong. According to recent statistics, starting pitchers with three days of rest have maintained an ERA of 4.50 in the last 30 postseasons.

We chose Matt Boyd to pitch. I don’t know what to say. He pitched, it didn’t go well. We have to make decisions. We went with Matt.

Craig Counsell

Before the game, Boyd had limited experience pitching with three days of rest, with an effectiveness of 4.70 in three games in his career. Against the Brewers in Game 1, he recorded some of his worst numbers of the season, including only 43% of his pitches in the strike zone, his lowest percentage of the year. Boyd also induced a 60% swing rate from the Brewers, his second-highest percentage of the season. The Brewers were not fooled by his pitches.

The main thing we talked about [all week] is, promise me you’ll be ready for the first pitch. When the bell rings, you’re ready. You have to get your pitch, as they say, and Boyd was back with little rest. We hit some balls where they weren’t and we were ready, and I loved the at-bats at the beginning.

Pat Murphy

Perkins added:

I’m sitting here, too, like, gosh, how are we doing this sometimes? It’s a great feeling, and it’s a lot of fun to be a part of it.

Blake Perkins

The rest time between the regular season and the postseason didn’t impact Milwaukee’s offense, but the time on the mound during the previous round apparently affected Boyd. He also struggled at the end of the regular season, with an ERA of 5.31 in September, his worst month of the season. The Brewers added three more runs in the second inning, forcing reliever Mike Soroka to leave the game after a short performance. Aaron Civale came in for relief, pitching 4⅔ innings. It could be the only positive aspect after a terrible day for the Cubs: they saved their bullpen for another day.

Aaron’s outing, really, really saved us.

Craig Counsell

Game 2 will be played on Monday night in Milwaukee.