Cooperstown: Were Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy inducted into the Hall of Fame? Analysis and Debate.

Cooperstown Reflection Season: Analysis of Hall of Fame Ballots

With the release of the ballot for the 2026 BBWAA Hall of Fame, the deliberation season in Cooperstown has officially begun. However, attention is focused on the ballot of the contemporary baseball era committee, whose results will be announced on December 7th. This committee, which meets every three years, will consider player candidates from 1980 onwards. This ballot is stronger, with eight candidates averaging 74.1 career bWAR, compared to the 33 candidates on the main ballot, who average 41.3. The urgency and intrigue are high, especially considering the new rules that could affect the chances of players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

The idea that the Hall of Fame doesn’t include the all-time home run king and one of the five best pitchers in history, when both are eligible and have intact official game records, means it will always be less than it should be.
Statement on the exclusion of iconic players

The new rules stipulate that any candidate who does not receive at least five votes from the 16 voters on the current ballot will not be eligible for future consideration in the next committee cycle. Furthermore, if a candidate fails to obtain five votes in multiple appearances on the committee’s ballots of the era, they will no longer be eligible for future consideration. The committee, composed of 16 members, will have the task of deciding on the era ballot. To enter the Hall of Fame, candidates need to be named on at least 12 of the 16 ballots, but each member can only nominate three players.

Candidate Analysis: A Methodical Approach

The selection process involves a three-region approach: Eligibility, Target Case, and Deep Analysis. In the Eligibility region, the integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team of each player are considered. The Target Case region focuses on key statistical data, such as bWAR. Finally, the Deep Analysis uses a series of questions to evaluate the candidates. In the current ballot, all players pass the eligibility phase and the target case. The players who stand out in this analysis are Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Barry Bonds: Fourth in bWAR (162.8), first in home runs (762) and first in walks (2,558).
Roger Clemens: Eighth in bWAR (139.2), third in strikeouts (4,672).

Deep analysis, known as the Keltner List, evaluates the remaining candidates through a series of questions. The results of this analysis shed light on the eligibility of the players. Among the remaining candidates, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy have garnered attention. However, the analysis of the Keltner List reveals that Dale Murphy is the best option to take the third place, according to this analysis. With the new rules and the limitation of nominations, the choice becomes even more critical. The inclusion of Bonds, Clemens, and Murphy in the Hall of Fame would be the result of this analysis.