F1 2026: Predictions and Race Order After Pre-Season in Bahrain

Detailed Analysis of the Bahrain Tests: Who Are the Favorites for 2026?

The Formula 1 preseason has come to an end. After the tests in Barcelona and the two three-day tests in Bahrain, the action moves to Melbourne on March 5th. Alofoke Deportes analyzes the data and the feelings of each team to predict the race order for the 2026 season.

Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes were not the fastest in the F1 tests in Bahrain, but the Silver Arrows seem to be in a good position for the 2026 season.

From the shakedown in Barcelona to two three-day tests in Bahrain, the Formula 1 preseason program has concluded.

Alofoke Deportes

1. Mercedes

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 714 (6th most)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:32.803; +0.811 (2nd fastest)

The data: Kimi Antonelli set the best time for Mercedes with 1:32.803 on the second day, about 0.8 seconds off Charles Leclerc’s best time. The difference is due to the better track conditions for Leclerc and the use of softer tires.

A notable factor was the slower top speed on the main straight. George Russell was 8 km/h slower than Leclerc, losing 0.2 seconds on the lap. This could be due to the way Mercedes’ power unit manages battery energy, but the comparison with McLaren suggests that a higher top speed is possible. The pace of Antonelli and Russell in long runs was consistent in the low 1:36s and 1:35s. This, compared to Ferrari’s best stints in the mid 1:36s and low 1:37s, suggests that Mercedes’ true pace could be hidden.The sensations: Mercedes has been an enigma during the preseason. Although they were expected to be the favorites, some in the team have downplayed expectations. The atmosphere is one of quiet confidence, with some historical caution. Overall, Mercedes seems happy and eager to start the season, although they are not openly declaring themselves as the favorite.

2. Ferrari

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 744 (4th)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:31.992 (1st)

The data: Leclerc set the best time with 1:31.992, surpassing McLaren by 0.879 seconds. Comparing Leclerc’s best time with C3 tires (1:32.297), Ferrari maintains an advantage in certain points of the lap. Leclerc gained ground in turn 4, in turns 6 and 7, in the braking of turn 11 and on the final straight. Recovery and deployment strategies seem to influence, but the overall picture is favorable for Ferrari. The long runs support this image, with Leclerc leading by 5.5 seconds in the race simulation on Friday morning. Ferrari’s fast starts, attributed to a smaller turbo, could give them an advantage at the starts.The sensations: Frédéric Vasseur’s effect is noticeable at Ferrari, with a positive and calm atmosphere. Despite the good results in pre-season, Ferrari remains calm, without exaggerating expectations. Leclerc and Hamilton seem to be happy with the SF-26. The caution is due to the memories of 2022, when Ferrari arrived as the team to beat and then had problems.

3. McLaren

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 817 (1st)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:32.861; +0.869 (3rd)

The data: McLaren achieved higher top speeds than Mercedes on the fast laps, but the overall lap time wasn’t as easy. Norris’s best lap data shows that he was faster than his rivals until the braking for turn 4, losing time in turns 4, 11 and 13. Piastri did a race simulation, and McLaren was, on average, 0.1 seconds faster per lap than Verstappen.

The sensations: The world champion team knows it is not the benchmark, but it doesn’t seem to have expected it, especially after Verstappen and Red Bull took the fight for last year’s title to the last race. McLaren operates with the calm and confidence of those who know they are capable of building a winning car, even if they are not at the top at the start of the season. They expect the tire advantage to disappear with the new regulations, but are confident of competing at the front if early improvements meet their goals.

4. Red Bull

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 672 (7th)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:33.109; +1.117 (4th)

The data: Although some rivals pointed to Red Bull as the benchmark in the first week of testing, the data suggests that it is not the fastest car either in a single lap or in race distance. They focused on energy deployment, with an advantage in turns 3 and 4, but it was not maintained until the last sector. Verstappen’s race simulation shows that he struggled to match Piastri in stints two and three. Based on what was seen on track, Red Bull seems to be just behind McLaren, in fourth place overall.The sensations: Red Bull had quiet tests, focusing on work and letting the media focus on engine politics, battery management, and new F1 start procedures. Verstappen is happy with the RB22. Reliability has been solid, and initial fears of winter shutdowns did not materialize. Red Bull does not expect to have a winning car at the start of 2026, but they are confident of being close, with obvious improvements to be made.

The RB22 doesn’t seem to be a match for the F1 leaders in 2026, but Red Bull can never be ruled out with Max Verstappen at the wheel.

5. Haas

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 794 (2nd)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:33.487; +1.495 (6th)

The data: There is a debate about which team leads the midfield group. Haas is possibly the leader, but it could also be Alpine or Audi. Bearman used the C4 compound to finish seventh, 0.066 seconds behind Pierre Gasly. Bearman also completed a race simulation, surpassing the Racing Bulls driver, before being overtaken by Gabriel Bortoleto in the Audi.

The sensations: Haas has had solid tests, accumulating a lot of mileage and avoiding major problems. The team was impressed by the Ferrari engine. Haas will not get carried away, but it seems that they will be able to fight for points from the beginning.

6. Alpine

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 667 (8th)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:33.421; +1.429 (5th)

The data: Gasly set the best time outside the top four, using the softest compound. The comparison with Bearman showed Gasly starting strong but losing time in the last sector. Gasly started a race simulation, but had a problem. This indicates that Haas and Alpine are evenly matched in the midfield.The sensations: The mood in Alpine is very positive. The change to Mercedes engines has coincided with a clear improvement. They feel revitalized by a car that seems to be at the front of the midfield and close to the fight for points. The only concern is their driver lineup.

7. Audi

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 639 (9th)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:33.755; +1.763 (7th)

The data: Audi unlocked a considerable amount of performance and seems ready to settle in the mid-pack. Bortoleto set the team’s best time, 0.268 seconds off Bearman’s time. The car’s speed matched its Mercedes and Ferrari-powered rivals. Bortoleto completed a race simulation, which was 15 seconds faster than Bearman’s.

The sensations: There was a feeling of “new kid at school.” The team members seemed satisfied with the tests. Audi entered F1 to be competitive in the long term. Problems were expected with the first engine and they found them, but they were happy with the unique design of their sidepods. Audi’s position fluctuated, but the team seemed relieved to avoid Aston Martin’s problems. Audi might take time to get started in 2026, but the base seems decent.

8. Racing Bulls

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 723 (5th)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:34.149; +2.157 (8th)

The data: Lindblad was 0.662 seconds slower than Bearman. Most of the time was lost from turn 8. Lindblad and Bearman also offered one of the closest race simulation comparisons, with Bearman finishing 18 seconds ahead.

The sensations: Red Bull is trying to position Racing Bulls as the “fun” team. They have a talented lineup and a car that looks decent. Racing Bulls helped Red Bull solve problems with the new engine. Lindblad made a good impression internally.

9. Williams

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 790 (3rd)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:34.342; +2.350 (9th)

The data: Williams is at a disadvantage for missing the first test in Barcelona. The car seems to lack pace. Sainz tried a race simulation, but was more than a second slower than Bearman and Lindblad before aborting it. It seems that Williams has regressed.The sensations: The mood at Williams seems deflated. Team principal James Vowles was okay with 2023, 2024, and 2025 being a failure if 2026 was a success. The FW48 seems overweight, and many in the paddock think Williams is in trouble.

10. Cadillac

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 586 (10th)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:35.290; +3.298 (10th)

The data: Cadillac seems to be several seconds behind the leaders, but the performance in Bahrain was impressive for a new team. Bottas was 3.2 seconds off Leclerc’s best time, but only 0.8 seconds off Sainz’s best time and was faster than Stroll’s best effort. The lack of downforce is the biggest deficit. Race simulations suggest a deficit of more than three minutes.The sensations: The general feeling in Cadillac is joy at being here. The main goal is to be respectable. The team delivered, with good mileage. The Cadillac test was not a catastrophe. They expect to be at the back of the grid in Melbourne.

Cadillac was the tenth fastest team on the grid at the end of the Bahrain tests, with Valtteri Bottas setting the time.

11. Aston Martin

• Laps completed in Bahrain: 334 (11th)
• Best time in Bahrain: 1:35.974; +3.982 (11th)

The data: Aston Martin’s lack of activity makes it impossible to know their potential. The AMR26 was the slowest, but neither of the drivers achieved a consistent pace. Most of the time lost was on the straights. The race simulations were slower than Cadillac’s efforts.The sensations: The atmosphere at Aston Martin was somber. The employees seemed shocked. Lawrence Stroll looked furious. Alonso looked exasperated. Newey stayed away from the media. Aston Martin knows it is not in a good position. The team has changed its message, saying that 2026 will be a year of testing.