F1 2026: Driver market heating up and the key moves

The F1 Season Enters a Key Period: Who’s Changing Teams?

The summer break in Formula 1 always coincides with the question that dominates the scene: who is leaving and where to? Traditionally, the August break marks the beginning of the “silly season”, the equivalent of the transfer market in other sports. However, in F1 there is no defined deadline for a driver to decide to change teams. An example is Lewis Hamilton, who signed his contract with Ferrari for 2025 before the 2024 preseason with Mercedes, demonstrating that the rules can be flexible. The resumption of the season promises to be intense, with the Dutch Grand Prix (August 31) and the Italian Grand Prix (September 7) focusing attention on the signings for 2026. This year’s “silly season” has a special flavor due to the arrival of Cadillac, a new team that will expand the grid from 20 to 22 drivers, offering two available seats.

Confirmed Teams for 2026

• McLaren: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri
• Ferrari: Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton
• Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll
• Haas: Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman
• Audi: Nico Hülkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto

The weeks and months around August are usually the busiest. Until recently, Max Verstappen’s situation seemed to slow everything down. Mercedes’ interest, confirmed by Toto Wolff, in the four-time world champion, would have had significant repercussions. Other teams were waiting, ready to act if Verstappen joined Mercedes, which could have freed George Russell. Finally, Verstappen confirmed that he will stay at Red Bull until 2026. This defines the current landscape.

Mercedes

With Verstappen out of the equation, the future of Mercedes seems clear. Russell, whose contract ends at the end of the season, is in the process of extending his agreement. The duration of this extension is key; Mercedes is expected to offer Russell a one-year contract to keep the option of signing Verstappen in the next season. Russell’s situation is complicated because he is a driver and is managed by Mercedes, which limits his negotiating power. Kimi Antonelli, teammate, is expected to continue in 2026. Internal confidence in Mercedes’ competitiveness with the new 2026 regulations allows Wolff a favorable position. Offering short-term contracts to Russell and Antonelli gives him flexibility for next year, when the driver market could be more open. The expiration of Hamilton’s contract with Ferrari at the end of next season and a possible departure or retirement of the seven-time world champion could generate a domino effect, while Verstappen could seek another exit if Red Bull is not competitive.

Cadillac

With Verstappen’s situation resolved, attention turns to Cadillac, which will join as the eleventh team on the grid next season. The American team, overseen by General Motors and led by Graeme Lowdon, has prioritized the construction of its structure. The announcement of its drivers is expected to be secondary.

Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas top Cadillac’s wish list for their F1 debut in 2026. Lowdon has spoken with several drivers since the team’s entry was confirmed in March, but two names stand out: Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas. It is understood that Cadillac contacted Pérez as soon as possible after his departure from Red Bull last year. Talks with Bottas have been ongoing for some time, and news about one of them could arrive before the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August. Bottas hinted at a possible move to Cadillac in a viral video. The Finnish driver, with ten victories in five seasons with Mercedes, has been without a seat since leaving Sauber at the end of last year. In case Cadillac doesn’t achieve its main goals, experience could be a key factor. Daniel Ricciardo has ruled out his return to competition. Other options include Zhou Guanyu, with experience as a Ferrari reserve driver, and Mick Schumacher, who is looking for opportunities in F1. American options are limited. Colton Herta, from IndyCar, has distanced himself from the opportunity. Jak Crawford, a competitor in Formula 2, could be an option if he wins the title.

Alpine

Pierre Gasly has scored all of Alpine’s points this season, highlighting his development and the team’s difficulties in finding a suitable teammate. Jack Doohan was put under pressure after Alpine signed Franco Colapinto as a reserve driver. Colapinto was replaced at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, but has not outperformed.

Colapinto arrived at Alpine with financial support, vital for his rise to the main team. Flavio Briatore, Alpine advisor, has indicated that Colapinto’s performance must improve to secure his permanence. The team has been linked with a possible signing of Bottas mid-season, which could secure the Finnish driver until 2026. Reserve driver Paul Aron could have an opportunity at the end of the year. Sources suggest that Colapinto could stay in 2025, regardless of his performance, due to the importance of the financial support he provides.

Red Bull and Racing Bulls

Yuki Tsunoda’s future at Red Bull is uncertain beyond this season. Tsunoda was promoted to the team instead of Liam Lawson after only two races, but has struggled. The end of Red Bull’s partnership with Honda complicated Tsunoda’s situation, but this has changed after the arrival of Laurent Mekies. Tsunoda could benefit from the difficulty of driving the Red Bull car for drivers other than Verstappen. The lack of success of Gasly, Pérez, Lawson and Albon alongside the world champion has reinforced the idea that Red Bull must improve the car. Mekies has hinted that Tsunoda could have a long-term opportunity. 18-year-old Arvid Lindblad appears to be rapidly ascending through the junior categories. Red Bull might be reluctant to promote him too soon. If Lindblad moves up to F1, Lawson could be the one to leave the team. Mekies could offer Lawson an opportunity similar to Tsunoda’s. Sources close to Lawson suggest he has shown flashes of his former level, indicating an impact on his confidence. With Mekies in an influential position, the possibility of Lindblad having another development season and Lawson another full season doesn’t seem so far-fetched. If Tsunoda is fired, Isack Hadjar could move up and Lindblad could join Lawson in the junior team. With few big names available and the desire to rebuild the perception of Red Bull’s decisions and the strength of its program, no hasty decisions are expected. The Austrian company can take its time before deciding the best way to proceed.