New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies puts them in a favorable position to reach the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will take place in June 2021 at Lord’s.
After their victory in Wellington, New Zealand was very close to the top spot in the Test rankings, being only 0.086 points behind Australia.
The situation generated some confusion, as the ICC’s prediction tool initially showed New Zealand at the top. However, the ICC clarified that Australia remains in first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could consolidate its leadership if it wins the home series against India. For its part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies give them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.
If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan later on, they will add 420 points from five series.
This would leave India needing to secure five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final.
In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the qualification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. In other words, points per series played.
Australia currently tops the WTC table, with 82.2% of points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia also has a three-match Test series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins its two Tests against Pakistan, they will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points at stake.
When India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will give them the advantage over New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
