India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

India and Australia: Keys to Qualification for the World Test Cricket Championship

The series between Australia and India is a highly significant sporting event, with far-reaching implications for both teams on their path to the World Test Championship final in June. Performance in this series, and India’s subsequent home series against England, are crucial for their qualification aspirations. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory against the West Indies propels them to third place in the championship table. If they achieve the same result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will need to strive to stay above them.

India: Rating Outlook

India has participated in 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both are four-match test series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their count will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This means that India needs to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved by winning five matches or winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s outstanding home record, they will have a good opportunity to get all the points against England. This means they will need at least one victory, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach the target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches, as a win grants 30 points and a draw 10.

Australia: Current Situation

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points, with a points percentage of 82.22%. Currently, Australia needs to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Since the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three test matches, there will be 40 points available per victory and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia remains in a favorable position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa would boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.