India vs Australia: WTC Equations. How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Clash with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India transcends the individual realm, as it represents a sporting event of great magnitude. Furthermore, with the final of the World Test Cricket Championship on the horizon for June, the overall context adds an extra layer of importance for both teams. New Zealand, after its 2-0 victory against the West Indies, is positioned in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

The Classification Landscape

We analyze how this series and the one in India at home against England influence their chances of qualification.

India

Series played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75 India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match test series, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This means that India needs to surpass 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can happen if India wins five matches or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).

Given India’s outstanding track record as a host, they will have a good opportunity to get all the points against England. This implies that they will need at least one victory or three draws in the four test matches in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia with a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia

Series played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22 Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, its goal will be to surpass 336 points. Since the series against South Africa is expected to be three test matches, 40 points will be offered for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite various injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, narrowly surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.