India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Key Clash with World Test Championship Perspectives

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter, becoming a series of great relevance with multiple implications. In addition to the prestige at stake, both teams are competing for an advantageous position in the World Test Championship, whose final is approaching in June. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If New Zealand replicates this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will be forced to strive to maintain their position in the standings.

Next, we will analyze the impact of this series, along with India’s home series against England, on their qualification aspirations.

India

Games played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75 India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both series consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. Therefore, India will have to surpass that 70% to secure their position above New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs to score at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: winning five matches or winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s outstanding home record, they will have a good opportunity to get the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach their target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. Since a win grants 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia

Games played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22 Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to obtain a points percentage greater than 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three tests, there will be 40 points available per victory and 13 per draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a solid position, thanks to the number of points accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, slightly surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.