India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the value of a simple sporting encounter, becoming a series of great relevance with numerous factors at play. In addition to being a high-caliber duel, this competition has a significant impact on the overall landscape, as the final of the World Test Championship approaches in June. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If New Zealand manages to repeat this result against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will find themselves needing to strive to stay above them in the standings.

India’s Path to Classification

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points and a points percentage of 75%. They still have two series left in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both series consist of four tests, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This implies that India will have to surpass that 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Considering India’s excellent home record, they have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four tests in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. Since a win grants 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia’s Position

Australia has played three series, scoring 296 points and a points percentage of 82.22%. Currently, Australia needs to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. In case that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three tests, there will be 40 points available per victory and 13 per draw.

Despite various injury issues, Australia is in a solid position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa would propel them to 422 points, slightly surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.