India vs Australia: Equations for the WTC Final; 5 Key Wins

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India, by itself, is a significant event in the world of cricket. However, with the World Test Championship (WTC) final on the horizon in June, the impact of this series extends to a broader landscape for both teams. New Zealand, following their 2-0 victory against the West Indies, rises to third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this result against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will need to strive to stay above them.

India: Rating Outlook

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, which represents 75% of points. India has two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both series consist of four test matches, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s strong home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This would mean they would need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia: Current Situation

Australia has played 3 series, accumulating 296 points, with a points percentage of 82.22%. Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to achieve a points percentage above 70%, as long as the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three test matches, there will be 40 points available per victory and 13 for a draw. Despite injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position thanks to the points already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.