Pacquiao vs. Barrios: Analysis of the Boxing Icon’s Return

Manny Pacquiao Returns to the Ring: An Impossible Challenge?

The legendary Manny Pacquiao, at 46 years old, announces his return to boxing, just a month after his induction into the International Hall of Fame. The only world champion in eight divisions returns to the ring at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas to face WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios, 30 years old. This fight represents a significant challenge for Pacquiao, after a long period of inactivity. Barrios, who obtained the WBC interim title in September 2023 and successfully defended it in May 2024, was promoted to absolute champion before his fight against Abel Ramos. Barrios, with considerable height for the division, suffered a knockdown against Ramos in the sixth round, but managed to win by split decision. Despite this, Barrios has an impressive record among the 147-pound champions. He defeated Yordenis Ugas in 2023, who defeated Pacquiao in August 2021, a result that led to the retirement of the Filipino icon. Barrios has also shared the ring with elite figures like Keith Thurman and Gervonta “Tank” Davis, who defeated him but gave him valuable experience. Even so, Barrios could be considered the weakest link among the current welterweight champions, which could explain Pacquiao’s motivation to return. This return is not just about a payday, but about adding more achievements to his legacy. In July 2019, Pacquiao became the oldest welterweight champion, at 40 years old, after defeating Thurman. Now he seeks to surpass Bernard Hopkins, one of boxing’s greats, as the oldest world champion. Hopkins defeated Jean Pascal in 2011 at the age of 46 for the WBC light heavyweight title, and then, at 48, defeated Tavoris Cloud for the IBF belt. The second oldest champion was George Foreman, who regained the heavyweight title at 45 by knocking out Michael Moorer in 1994. However, there is a crucial difference between what “Big George” achieved, what Hopkins did, and what Pacquiao is attempting: Hopkins remained active during his final years, and Foreman was active for 10 years in his comeback to the heavyweight title. Pacquiao (62-8-39 KOs) has been out of the ring for more than four years. He has not had any preparation fights, only a couple of exhibitions in 2022 and one in 2024. To return to face a hungry champion like Barrios, who is naturally bigger, longer (with a 71-inch reach), and stronger, makes Pacquiao’s attempt alarming and historic.

The Rival’s Perspective: Facing Pacquiao

I had the privilege of sharing the ring with Pacquiao on three occasions: 2012, 2014, and 2016. Each encounter gave me a unique experience, influenced by his stage in his career and mine. In 2012, Pacquiao was at the peak of his illustrious career. He hadn’t lost in seven years and was coming off defeating big names in boxing. When I stepped into the ring for the first time, I felt like I was facing a titan. Beyond the magnitude of the event, I found myself face to face with a charismatic and humble man, whose soft voice and respectful demeanor created a notable contrast with what I would see that night. The announcements in the ring seemed shorter than in any other championship fight. My legs were shaking uncontrollably, but when I stopped, they went numb. Standing in front of Pacquiao, I felt the weight of his presence. His aura was intense, almost debilitating. Pacquiao is, without a doubt, the most exceptional athlete I have shared the ring with. Every movement was precise and deliberate. His footwork and feints kept me on edge, not knowing when he would launch his combinations. His hand speed was deceptive, and his ability to change the pace made everything more difficult. What seemed manageable in the video studios became overwhelming in real life. His first mid-distance step was like lightning, and the instant he let go of his hands, everything became chaotic. I learned that the audience is their source of energy. The more I gave them to celebrate, the fiercer it became. Pacquiao was harder to hit than I expected. His power was astonishing; every connected punch sent a jolt to my head, and even those that missed cut through the air like bullets. When I managed to connect, he would applaud in defiance. His stamina was incredible. What really distinguished him was his tenacity and his intelligence in the ring. Trying to repeat a punching pattern twice meant receiving an explosive counterattack from an unpredictable angle. What made Pacquiao especially dangerous was his ability to detect when his opponent was tiring. He sensed it and then intensified the pace. His strength was unusual for his size. Let’s be clear: Pacquiao’s B, C, and D game is better than the A game of most boxers. Special boxers like him are not made, they are born. But 46 is still 46.

How the Fight Could Unfold: Athletics vs. Left Hook

Pacquiao is expected to seek an intense fight from the first round, pressing and shortening the distance with feints, head movements, and combinations, taking advantage of his agility. In training, Pacquiao still shows flashes of his legendary speed and footwork. He will try to exploit with quick bursts and changes of angle before Barrios can react.

Pacquiao, being shorter, knows he can’t fight at long range, where Barrios is comfortable with his jab, right straights, and hooks. To neutralize him, Pacquiao must shorten the distance and attack Barrios’ torso. These body shots are crucial to diminish Barrios’ mobility, deplete his stamina, and reduce his accuracy.

Being a southpaw gives Pacquiao a tactical advantage. Barrios hasn’t faced many southpaws in his career, and the last time he did, against Davis in 2021, he took shots to the body and head. Pacquiao will likely try to replicate that success, using feints to mask his signature punch, the left hook, which he disguises with head movements. But this fight will not be without risks for Pacquiao. His athleticism, which was once his greatest strength, now makes him vulnerable. As one ages, timing and balance do not always align perfectly. Barrios, with his counter-punching and discipline, could capitalize on those mistakes. Barrios will likely stay calm at first, allowing Pacquiao to set the pace. He will start with a constant jab, looking to damage Pacquiao’s face and break his rhythm. Barrios will look for the opportune moment for his counterattacks, in particular the right hand, which has been a problem for Pacquiao throughout his career. Barrios’ left hook could be a decisive factor, especially to the body. Pacquiao has had problems with calf cramps throughout his career, and if Barrios focuses on the body, it could affect Pacquiao’s strength and agility. As the fight progresses, Pacquiao’s pace could slow down. His initial energy will likely be depleted, and Barrios will have opportunities to take control, maintaining the jab and controlling the distance.

Pacquiao in Decline: A Numerical Analysis

As boxers age, a decline is often observed, not only in activity levels, but also in accuracy, reflexes, and recovery. Older boxers may become more technical, taking fewer risks and relying on experience. But with that calculated caution comes lower output and less physical ability to adapt. In his fight against Ugas, Pacquiao not only seemed a step back, but he seemed to have aged overnight. Ugas’s precision and counterattack exposed the wear and tear of a long career. Pacquiao’s footwork and timing, which were once perfect, seemed obsolete. Ugas’s reach, power, and firm feet proved to be too much for the icon. Ugas surpassed Pacquiao in total punches (151-130), jabs (50-42), and power punches (101-88). Ugas connected 59% of his power punches. For the first time, it became undeniable that Pacquiao had finally reached the limit that all great boxers reach. Four years later, imagining a resurgence of Pacquiao is not easy. Time has not stopped. Barrios is 16 years younger, more precise, and fresher. And he certainly has experience. Barrios possesses many characteristics that made it difficult for Pacquiao against Ugas, such as constant footwork, precise timing, an excellent jab, and the energy of youth. Don’t be fooled by social media videos. It’s one thing to look good in the gym, but it’s a different battle when your body begs for recovery and it no longer comes so quickly. Reaction time becomes slower and recovery is prolonged as we age. Yes, Pacquiao still has the heart of a warrior and will give everything he has left, but time is relentless. Even his warrior spirit might not be enough to overcome this chosen champion in the welterweight division.

Who Will Win?

This will not be an easy fight for Pacquiao or Barrios. Pacquiao will have his moments, perhaps even shake Barrios with combinations, and his speed will give him rounds. However, as the 12 rounds progress and Pacquiao slows down, Barrios’ reach, his precise counterattacks, and his determination will prove that Pacquiao is beatable at this stage of his career. Ultimately, Barrios will win by unanimous decision, not by dominance, but by doing what he needs to do that night. He will defeat a legend, but one past his prime.