The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies in the series of matches has boosted their aspirations to reach the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be held at Lord’s in June 2021. New Zealand came very close to reaching the top spot in the Test rankings, finishing just 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington on Monday. However, the situation generated some confusion due to an error in the ICC’s prediction tool, which initially placed New Zealand at the top. Subsequently, the ICC clarified that Australia maintains the first position with 116.461 ranking points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could cement their lead if they win the home series against India. On the other hand, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies earned them 300 WTC points, accumulated in four series during the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, they will add 420 points from five series. This implies that India will need five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Tests (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s. Due to the pandemic situation, the ICC modified the classification criteria, moving from absolute points to a percentage of points played, that is, points per series played. Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they achieve a 2-2 draw against India, they will maintain the lead with 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will drop to 70%. New Zealand, if they win their two Tests against Pakistan, will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points contested.
When India completes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each remaining Test victory will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points.
In terms of rankings, depending on the results of the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series, Australia could extend its lead in first place or concede ground to New Zealand.