Analysis of Rotations for the 2025 MLB Playoffs
A little over a week before the start of the 2025 MLB playoffs, the contending teams are defining their rotations in the hope of going far in October. We analyze the starting pitching options of the currently qualified teams, considering how they will be used in the postseason.
These rankings are based on how often a team is likely to use its pitchers in a seven-game series. The number 1 and 2 starters have a greater impact, as the playoffs often depend on the best pitchers, adjusting on the fly.We have ranked 14 teams, including the Cleveland Guardians and the Cincinnati Reds, who are seeking a playoff spot. Therefore, two of the mentioned teams will not qualify.
Level 1
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Candidates: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Emmet Sheehan Yamamoto, whose ERA and estimators have been below 3.00, with above-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates, is one of the reasons the Dodgers are leading. He has pitched 60 more innings than any other Dodgers starter this season. Glasnow and Snell would likely be in the top four, with Kershaw as a fourth option and Ohtani and Sheehan available in various roles. It’s unlikely that Roki Sasaki will start a playoff game, but he could be a multi-inning relief option.2. Philadelphia Phillies
Candidates: Christopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker The Phillies have a clear top four. Sanchez, Suarez, and Luzardo have been good enough to be the primary starter for half the teams on this list. Nola is more reliable in a playoff game due to his track record and better end of season. The Phillies and Dodgers have some of the best odds to win the World Series, largely due to the strength of their rotations.3. Seattle Mariners
Candidates: Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller The Mariners could be higher if Kirby and Miller hadn’t regressed this season. Gilbert and Woo continue to improve and are among the best pitchers evaluated. Gilbert is especially interesting, as his strikeout rate has increased this season, despite his pitch velocity decreasing.Level 2
4. Detroit Tigers
Candidates: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Charlie Morton, Troy Melton, Keider Montero Detroit is led by Skubal, while Milwaukee has a balanced rotation. Flaherty hasn’t performed well in the playoffs. The Tigers have interesting options after their first three, with Melton being a better option than Morton. The most effective strategy seems to be to rely on Skubal and take advantage of matchups and the good performance of each pitcher.5. Milwaukee Brewers
Candidates: Freddy Peralta, Jacob Misiorowski, Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Jose Quintana Peralta is the most likely option to start Game 1. All three have been excellent this year, along with the expected progress of Priester. Henderson and Patrick are excellent long relief options who can also start, if needed. This reflects the Brewers’ organization: not the most talented, but always optimized and exceeding the budget.Level 3
6. Cincinnati Reds
Candidates: Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Chase Burns, Zack Littell, Nick Martinez The Reds are surprising teams vying for the National League wild card. Greene has been one of the best starters in the last two years. Abbott and Lodolo have become reliable mid-rotation options. The choice between these three strong pitchers and the Astros’ group is a matter of preference. The Reds stand out because, if they don’t opt for safety with Singer, Littell, or Martinez, they could choose Burns. If Burns can regain the form he showed before his injury, he could be the surprise factor in the playoffs.7. Houston Astros
Candidates: Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, AJ Blubaugh, Jason Alexander The Astros could move up to the second level for having two of the best starting pitchers in the sport, both with playoff experience. Brown and Valdez could pitch with little rest. The best strategy is likely to rely on the bullpen.8. San Diego Padres
Candidates: Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, Kyle Hart, Nestor Cortes San Diego has four strong veteran starters, but they’ve had trouble keeping them healthy and performing at the same time this year, with Pivetta as the only constant. If King recovers for the playoffs and Cease/Darvish can have results in line with their underlying metrics, this ranking could be different; the pieces are here to prove otherwise.9. Boston Red Sox
Candidates: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Connelly Early, Lucas Giolito, Dustin May, Payton Tolle, Kyle Harrison Like the Tigers, there’s a clear ace and a collection of interesting pitchers who aren’t highly trusted for the end of the playoffs. Crochet is clearly the type of arm Boston needs to start three times in a seven-game series. Bello has outperformed his underlying metrics, but doesn’t get enough strikeouts. The best option is to start those three and deploy the others in a bullpen day or long relief to take advantage of matchups.10. Chicago Cubs
Candidates: Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale, Colin Rea The Cubs have five or six viable options, but that doesn’t give them extra credit when you only need four and, ideally, a clear ace. Horton has improved in the second half, while Boyd has declined a bit, and Imanaga has remained solid, but not spectacular. Soroka could be the best option for the fourth spot. If Horton can keep this momentum in the playoffs and Boyd and Imanaga can pitch five solid innings each time, this can be a strong group.11. New York Yankees
Candidates: Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Will Warren The Yankees are lower than expected with two high-salaried left-handed starters and three promising young right-handers. If Gerrit Cole were healthy, the Yankees would be higher. Fried and Rodon have mixed results in their postseason history. The bullpen is a strength, so the relievers could have a lot of work. It is imperative that Fried and Rodon perform for the Yankees to have a chance to go far.Level 4
12. Toronto Blue Jays
Candidates: Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Trey Yesavage, Jose BerriosThis last level is a comment on whether there is a true ace present who can carry the team. The first four names are solid Major League starters. Yesavage could be an intriguing multi-inning relief arm. Bieber is the other unknown. The components are here for Bieber to look like a front-line starter again.
13. New York Mets
Candidates: Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong, Sean Manaea The Mets are clearly last in this exercise, as there is no clear and proven starter on the staff. McLean has been excellent since his debut in August, but it’s only been six starts. Tong could be a mid-rotation type or a strong multi-inning relief option. Sproat could be in the bullpen. Peterson should be the Game 1 or 2 starter alongside McLean. Manaea seems like the right option to be the third starter. If McLean and Tong start and excel, the Mets’ rotation could compete with the teams above them on this list.14. Cleveland Guardians
Candidates: Tanner Bibee, Parker Messick, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi The Guardians’ rotation is comparable to the Mets’, but rookie Messick doesn’t have McLean’s talent. Bibee is the top option, but has underperformed. Williams has more velocity and raw talent, but less command. Cantillo has been the best of the group in the second half.
