India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends simple competition; it’s a series of great importance, with the added appeal of the World Test Championship final in June. Both teams have a lot at stake in terms of their rankings. The recent 2-0 victory of New Zealand against the West Indies positions them in third place in the Championship table. If they achieve the same result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

Situation of India

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points with a percentage of 75. India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s strong home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses to Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches, as a win grants 30 points and a draw, 10.

Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points with a percentage of 82.22. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to achieve a percentage above 70% if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. The series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, with 40 points available per victory and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17. Even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.