The Fight for the 2025 WNBA Championship Begins
The road to the 29th WNBA championship begins with the 2025 playoffs, which promise strong emotions. On Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, the court will witness the battle for the title. At first glance, the contest seems to be a three-way battle: the current champions, the New York Liberty, with star players like Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones; the Las Vegas Aces, led by A’ja Wilson, seeking to consolidate their dynasty; and the Minnesota Lynx, the most outstanding team of the regular season, with Napheesa Collier as an MVP candidate. ESPN BET’s odds suggest that there is an 84% probability that one of these three teams will win the trophy. This leaves a 16% chance for the rest of the teams in the postseason: Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm, Golden State Valkyries, and Indiana Fever. Although the odds don’t favor them, there is still a chance that one of them will surprise and be crowned champion. Here’s a look at the reasons why each of these five teams could exceed expectations and go far in the playoffs.Note: “Simulated Elo probabilities” are based on Elo ratings, which evaluate team performance based on the results of each game, with a focus on recent performance. The “SRS index” is Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS), which is essentially the points-per-game differential adjusted for schedule.Atlanta Dream
Record: 30-14ESPN BET Odds: +1000 (7.8% implied probability)Simulated Elo probabilities: 24.1%
SRS Index: +6.5 (second)
Offensive rating: 110.5 (second)Defensive Rating: 100.5 (second)Best player: Allisha Gray (7.6 wins added for 44 games)
Why they can win: If it weren’t for the preseason expectations, the Dream could have turned the title conversation into a four-team race instead of three. According to Elo’s classification simulations, Atlanta (17-5 since the All-Star break) has a better chance of winning than New York (11-11 since the break). The Dream also ranks second, just behind the Lynx, in offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, and SRS rating.
Although surprises elsewhere in the bracket would greatly favor Atlanta, a possible matchup with the Aces looms in the semifinals, which means trying to contain Wilson, who averaged a dominant 30 points (on 54% shooting) and 11 rebounds against Atlanta, as Las Vegas won 3-0 in the season series.
The Dream has the typical dilemma of those who exceed expectations in basketball: Their success in the regular season was built on depth, which matters less in the playoffs. But although Atlanta doesn’t have the star power of the top three contenders, a championship run requires contributions beyond the most well-known names, and no team has a greater wealth of them than the Dream.Key statistic: Six of Atlanta’s seven players with the most minutes had an estimated RAPTOR rating of +1.5 or higher during the regular season, the most of any team in the league.Phoenix Mercury
Record: 27-17ESPN BET Odds: +1600 (5.1% implied probability)Simulated Elo probabilities: 1.4%
SRS Index: +2.5 (fifth)Offensive rating: 105.9 (seventh)Defensive Rating: 102.5 (fifth)Best Player: Alyssa Thomas (7.9 wins added in 44 games)Why they could win: The Mercury’s first-round matchup against the Liberty certainly isn’t ideal. Phoenix was quickly dispatched in the first round last year by Minnesota, who went all the way to the final with New York, and that could feel like a comparison for this year’s series for power.
The Mercury also won 3-1 in the season series against the Liberty, all the games that Stewart started, which provides the hope that Phoenix can get out of the first round and take their chances against the rest of the field with Thomas at the helm.Key stat: The Mercury held Stewart to or below her full-season production in points, rebounds and assists in the teams’ four-game regular season series.Seattle Storm
Record: 23-21ESPN BET Odds: +6000 (1.4% implied probability)
Simulated Elo probabilities: 0.5%
SRS Index: +2.0 (seventh)Offensive rating: 104.5 (eighth)Defensive Rating: 101.9 (third)Best player: Skylar Diggins (6.5 wins added in 44 games)Why they can win: The Storm will need to lean on their defense to win their first-round matchup against the Aces. Gabby Williams and Ezi Magbegor have been among the league’s best statistical defenders; only Natasha Mack of the Mercury has a higher block rate than Magbegor’s 7.2% mark this season, and Williams has the league’s second-highest qualified steal rate (3.6%). The team also holds its opponents to 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average. Seattle split the season series with Las Vegas (2-2), so, at the very least, it can make things unpleasant for Wilson and company.Key statistic: The Storm leads the league with a turnover margin of more than 4.2 per 100 possessions, well ahead of the Lynx, who are in second place (+2.5).Indiana Fever
Record: 24-20ESPN BET Odds: +10000 (0.9% implied probability)Simulated Elo probabilities: 2.3%
SRS Index: +2.5 (sixth)Offensive rating: 108.5 (third)Defensive Rating: 104.2 (seventh)Best player: Aliyah Boston (7.5 wins added per 44 games)Why they could win: Without Caitlin Clark, the Fever will face an uphill battle, and that’s before we take into account all the other key players they’ve lost for the season. The limits of Indiana’s impressive depth will continue to be tested in a tough first-round matchup against Atlanta. It’s worth mentioning that the Fever had a 2-2 record against the Dream during the regular season. Indiana also has the third-best offensive rating in the league, led by Kelsey Mitchell’s scoring (21.1 PPG in the last month), Boston (14.7), and a balanced attack around them. If the Fever are going to defeat Atlanta, they will need to rely on the post-Clark offense that Stephanie White and company have forged without their most essential player for most of the season.Key stat: Since August 15th, only the Aces (116.6) and the Dream (114.6) have higher offensive ratings than the Fever (111.9).Golden State Valkyries
Record: 23-21ESPN BET Odds: +10000 (0.9% implied probability)Simulated Elo probabilities: 0.8%
SRS Index: +1.5 (eighth)Offensive rating: 103.9 (ninth)Defensive Rating: 102.1 (fourth)Best player: Veronica Burton (7.3 wins added per 44 games)Why they could win: We’re not going to sugarcoat it: The Valkyries’ reward for being the first real expansion team to make the playoffs in WNBA history is a very improbable path through the bracket. The Lynx swept the four-game regular season series against the Valkyries. But while Golden State will have a hard time against Minnesota, the Valkyries rank third in defensive rating in the last month and fourth in offense. Natalie Nakase’s coaching also gives the Valkyries a possible edge.
Key statistic: In the last month, the net rating of the Valkyries of more than 4.9 ranks fifth in the WNBA, ahead of playoff teams Seattle, New York and Phoenix.
