New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies has strengthened their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand was on the verge of reaching the top spot in the Test rankings, being only 0.086 points behind Australia. This is due to their victory in Wellington.The situation generated some confusion in the cricket world, as the ICC’s prediction tool initially showed New Zealand at the top. However, the ICC clarified that Australia remains in first place with 116.461 points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could consolidate its advantage if it wins the home series against India. On the other hand, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies earned them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series. This would leave India needing to secure five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final. Due to the pandemic, the ICC had to modify the qualification criteria, moving from absolute points to a percentage of points disputed, that is, points per series played. Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. Even if they draw 2-2 against India, they will still lead with a percentage of 74.17. However, if they lose 1-2, their percentage will decrease to 70. Australia also has a three-Test series scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins both Tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points at stake.When India finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series, or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s 84 points per series, or 70% of the points played. Each remaining Test victory will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. They need five victories or four victories and three draws to surpass New Zealand.
As for the rankings, Australia could increase its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold.
