India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter; it is a series of great importance with significant consequences, especially in the context of the upcoming World Test Cricket Championship final in June. The performance of both teams in this series is vital for their championship aspirations. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If New Zealand manages to replicate this result against Pakistan in the current season, both Australia and India will find themselves in need of securing favorable results to maintain their position in the table.

Analysis of India’s Possibilities

India has participated in four series, accumulating 360 points, which translates to a percentage of 75%. It still has two series to play in the current cycle: one against Australia and another against England. Both series consist of four test matches, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

With its outstanding home record, India has a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means it will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach its target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia with a margin of 1-2, it will need 110 points in the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach the 110 points is by winning all four matches.

Situation in Australia

Australia currently has 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. It needs to surpass 420 points to achieve a percentage above 70%, assuming the series against South Africa takes place. If this series is canceled, its goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given the expectation that the series against South Africa will consist of three test matches, 40 points will be awarded for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury concerns, Australia is in a favorable position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends in a 2-2 draw, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series win against South Africa would propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory over South Africa to stay above 70%.