Analysis of Candidates to Be Traded Before the MLB Deadline
As the MLB trade deadline approaches on July 31st, it’s time to analyze the top candidates to be traded, according to the list compiled by experts. The MLB trade market is constantly evolving, and this analysis offers an updated view of the current situation. Although some of the players on the list are unlikely to be traded, their names are being discussed in possible deals. Others could be on the list for the first time this week, as the situation of their teams has changed.Note: Players are ranked by value for their new team if they are transferred, not by the probability of being traded.1. Eugenio Suárez, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Probability of change: 90%
Suárez, in his final year of his contract, is playing like one of the best baseball players. With 33 home runs, only Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge have more. Despite turning 34 before the trade deadline, Suárez is near his career highs in isolated power and wRC+ (which measures overall performance). Although his fielding metrics have declined in recent years, he remains an acceptable defender at third base. Even if the Diamondbacks don’t unload all their free agents, Suárez could be traded, as Jordan Lawlar is excelling in Triple-A and ready to take over at third base.Possible teams: Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies.2. Joe Ryan, SP, Minnesota Twins
Probability of change: 10%
Ryan is one of the best pitchers in baseball, with a combination of quality and pitching ability. Teams looking for long-term options dream of the possibility of the Twins trading him. Although unlikely, the trade season always offers surprises. The Twins don’t necessarily want to move Ryan; they are more in listening mode about almost everyone who holds a position on the roster. Since Ryan is not a free agent until after the 2027 season, teams are trying, with little success so far, to get him.Possible teams: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, New York Mets.3. MacKenzie Gore, SP, Washington Nationals
Probability of change: 10%
Although the general feeling is that Gore isn’t going anywhere, the Nationals are, at the very least, listening, and that justifies a spot on the list, regardless of the minimal probability that interim general manager Mike DeBartolo will trade him. The prospect of Gore moving is tempting enough to want to participate: 144 strikeouts in 117⅔ innings with sufficient control, with which he is walking 3.4 per nine innings, the lowest figure of his career. Even if “stuff-plus” models are not very favorable for Gore, he gets a number of elite swings and misses and is the type of pitcher who could tempt teams to overpay.
Possible teams: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, Baltimore, Houston, New York Mets.4. Dylan Cease, SP, San Diego Padres
Probability of change: 25%
Cease is throwing as hard as in his prime and is here more as a function of the Padres not having payroll flexibility or a deep minor league system, than out of any desire to trade him. As an impending free agent, he wouldn’t bring the same reward as Ryan or Gore. There are genuine doubts about whether the problems the Padres would try to solve by moving Cease would only be exacerbated on the starting pitcher side if he were to leave. Either way, they’re listening, and with Cincinnati and San Francisco nipping at their heels for the final National League wild card spot, President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller could try to get creative to improve their roster.Possible teams: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets.5. Steven Kwan, LF, Cleveland Guardians
Probability of change: 10%
Kwan, All-Star in the last two years and winner of the Gold Glove in his previous three seasons in the Major Leagues, is a left fielder who does it all, with elite batting skills and two years of club control after 2025. Cleveland doesn’t want to trade him, but with a shortage of available bats, the Guardians, at the very least, will listen to see if teams are willing to surprise them with offers.Possible teams: Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, Toronto, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers.6. Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
Probability of change: 25%
Duran had a breakout season in 2024, recording the seventh-best fWAR in the majors, with 6.8. However, his performance outperformed his underlying metrics, meaning he had some lucky results, and those metrics have regressed a bit this year, as has his luck. Duran is projected to finish the season with around 3.0 WAR, which is more in line with how the league views him. With Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox have the outfield depth to consider trading Duran for top-tier, controllable pitchers.Possible teams: San Diego, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia.7. Jhoan Duran, RP, Minnesota Twins
Probability of change: 30%
Duran is one of the best relievers in the sport, thanks to his great quality, led by a fastball that averages 100.4 mph and a “splinker” that sits at 97.6 mph. He has two more years of team control after this season, so it would require a large trade package.Possible teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas.8. Emmanuel Clase, RP, Cleveland Guardians
Probability of change: 20%
Class was nearly untouchable last season, but his numbers have regressed this year. He’s issued more walks and gotten fewer ground balls while allowing more damage on his cutter, which averages 99 mph, in part due to more locations in the middle of the plate. Under contract for less than $30 million through 2028, he would bring a big reward to Cleveland.Possible teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas.9. Cade Smith, RP, Cleveland Guardians
Probability of change: 20%
Smith has been the best reliever in baseball by WAR since the start of the 2024 season, and with more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings this year, he is the solution to the problems of many teams in the final innings. With four more years of control, he is also going to be prohibitively expensive for most teams, making it difficult to reach an agreement.Possible teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas.10. Griffin Jax, RP, Minnesota Twins
Probability of change: 30%
Despite an effectiveness of 3.92 that says otherwise, Jax has been one of the best relievers in baseball this season, the best by xFIP and in the top positions in other similar metrics. In the last two seasons, he is second in the sport, behind Cade Smith, in reliever WAR. Only Fernando Cruz and Mason Miller have a better strikeout rate than Jax’s 14.37 per nine innings, and his “sweeper” dominated arsenal induces as many swings and misses as anyone.Possible teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas.11. Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Probability of change: 70%
Kelly doesn’t have great raw quality, with the second-lowest average fastball velocity (92.1 mph) among pitchers with 125 innings pitched this season. His changeup is his best pitch by a wide margin, and he gets by with location and velocity pitches. He was a bulwark in the Diamondbacks’ run to the 2023 World Series, striking out 28 in 24 innings with an ERA of 2.25.Possible teams: Toronto, Boston, Houston, Chicago Cubs.
12. Mitch Keller, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Probability of change: 65%
Keller is not only in the midst of the best season of his career with an ERA of 3.53, but he is also under contract for another three years at a very reasonable price of 55.7 million dollars. The Pirates need bats, and moving Keller is the most likely way to fill that void. Teams might be a little scared by the quality of contact against him: his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have increased, while his strikeouts have decreased, but in an environment with few pitchers, Keller is nonetheless desirable.Possible teams: Chicago Cubs, Boston, Toronto, Houston.
13. Edward Cabrera, SP, Miami Marlins
Probability of change: 30%
All the potential the Marlins have seen in the 27-year-old right-handed pitcher is finally taking shape this season. While Cabrera’s 97 mph fastball gets the attention of hitters, it’s his curveball and slider that are doing most of the work. With a change of speed that in previous years has been his best pitch, the cost to acquire Cabrera will be high due to his complete arsenal and three more years of club control.Possible teams: Chicago Cubs, Boston, New York Mets, Toronto, Houston, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees.14. Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins
Probability of change: 50%
Alcantara was possibly the best pitcher in baseball in 2022, winning the National League Cy Young unanimously. He was more solid than spectacular in 2023 and missed 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. He has been playing this season to try to get his mix of pitches and locations right in the hope of regaining his former glory. His 6.66 ERA is terrifying, and as the Marlins still value him as a top-tier starter, they could retain him until the winter, when teams like the Orioles would be more inclined to acquire him and the last two years of his contract.Possible teams: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Boston, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, Baltimore.
15. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Probability of change: 70%
Gallen was excellent during the last three seasons, but now, in a contract year, he is recording the worst numbers of his career in almost every category. His stuff seems quite similar, but he is allowing much more damage when hitters make contact. That said, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has returned to normal in his last six starts, with 35 to 6, despite an ERA of 6.55 in that span.Possible teams: Toronto, San Diego, Houston, Chicago Cubs.
16. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Probability of change: 85%
O’Hearn is having a career year out of nowhere, with an OPS+ of 132 (and has also had bad luck with the luck of the ball in play), as well as being on track to reach a career high in home runs. He doesn’t face left-handed pitchers much and his splits suggest he shouldn’t.Possible teams: Houston, Boston, San Francisco, Texas.
17. David Bednar, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Probability of change: 70%
In a market filled with relief options, the 30-year-old Bednar offers high-end performance without the price tag of his peers. His swing-and-miss stuff has been elite since his return from Triple-A, and he has more than saved his trade value: in his last 23 outings, Bednar has struck out 29, walked five, and posted an ERA of 0.00.Possible teams: Detroit, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Seattle.18. Ryan Helsley, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
Probability of change: 80%
Helsley had the fourth-best WAR among relievers last season and is in a contract year, but he has been notably worse this season. His stuff and locations are quite similar, but the main difference is that his fastball is being hit hard, with a byproduct being his increase in home runs.Possible teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, Toronto, Detroit, New York Mets, Seattle.19. Pete Fairbanks, RP, Tampa Bay Rays
Probability of change: 20%
Fairbanks moved up his position a bit this year, and now his 97.3 mph fastball has more cutting action, while his slider has more depth, with both pitches playing a bit better than last season. He has a club option for 2026 that, with escalators, should be around $10 million. Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes and injuries in the bullpen have reduced the likelihood of Fairbanks being moved.Possible teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Toronto, Texas.20. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Probability of change: 50%
Bieber, a late newcomer to the trade market, has yet to make a Major League start this season and is returning from Tommy John surgery. However, with his fastball up to 94 mph and his slider with its old sharpness, he is generating a lot of interest and could be one of the biggest names to move at the deadline.Possible teams: San Diego, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, Toronto.
21. Taylor Ward, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Probability of change: 60%
Ward has an additional year of team control after this season and is having a strong campaign in 2025, just one home run shy of last year’s career-high total of 25, and in 52 fewer games.Possible teams: Cincinnati, San Diego, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco.22. Luis Robert Jr., OF, Chicago White Sox
Probability of change: 50%
Robert has had very bad luck with the results of the ball in play this season, but that has begun to change recently. He remains a strong defender and base runner, with a personal record of 24 steals already. But his batting line is unattractive, and his trade value has plummeted in the last two seasons. He has a couple of $20 million club options per year that the acquiring team will hesitate to exercise in the absence of a turnaround. Finding a match with a team willing to pay more for Robert’s potential than for his productivity could be a challenge.Possible teams: San Diego, Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, San Francisco.23. Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Probability of change: 20%
Arenado’s strikeout rate is near his personal best and he remains an above-average defender, but his power and patience are declining to career-worst levels. He’s still a solid starter, but no longer a star, and the team that signs him in a deal will still have to pay him as such. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause.Possible teams: Detroit, Milwaukee, Seattle.
24. Marcell Ozuna, DH, Atlanta Braves
Probability of change: 70%
Ozuna is a stone DH, playing two games in the field in 2023 as his last regular season defensive experience. He is also in a contract year, but his power numbers have dropped a bit compared to his outstanding .302 average and his 39 home run performance last season. His on-base percentage is still among the highest of the possible trade candidates. If someone leaves Atlanta, he is the most likely candidate, with free agency calling.Possible teams: San Diego, Seattle, Texas, Detroit, San Francisco.
25. Adolis García, OF, Texas Rangers
Probability of change: 50%
Garcia averaged 30 home runs in 2021-24, but has declined since his record year of 2023. It’s worth noting that, according to xwOBA, he has been the 13th unluckiest hitter in the Major Leagues this year. He also has another year of team control, so some teams could see a buy-low opportunity.Possible teams: Philadelphia, Seattle, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco.26. Reid Detmers, RP, Los Angeles Angels
Probability of change: 15%
The 2020 draft’s number 10 overall pick moved to the bullpen this season and has found similar success to other highly-drafted college left-handers, including A.J. Puk, Andrew Miller, and Drew Pomeranz. He comes with three more years of control after this season and his velocity increased 1.7 mph in the new role, so this is where he could fit long-term, and he could yield a big payoff. Some teams still view Detmers as a starter.Possible teams: New York Mets, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Toronto.27. Charlie Morton, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Probability of change: 90%
After a terrible start to the season, Morton found his curve and has corrected himself. Between his stuff and his playoff experience, he has jumped onto teams’ advice as a true target and will almost certainly move before the deadline.Possible teams: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto.28. Adrian Houser, SP, Chicago White Sox
Probability of change: 90%
The resurgence of Houser is a success story for the White Sox. He opted out of a minor league contract with Texas to sign with the White Sox in mid-May and has limited home runs to record an ERA of 2.10 in nearly 70 innings. He will definitely cover innings, but some scouts see his stuff as good enough to warrant a spot in a postseason rotation.Possible teams: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto.
29. Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Probability of change: 80%
Mullins is a 30-year-old center fielder in a contract year who contributes in several ways, although he is batting only .217 and his defensive metrics have regressed to below average in center. His walk rate and power numbers have increased this season, making him a solid contributor on a contender.Possible teams: Philadelphia, Houston, New York Mets.
30. Willi Castro, UT, Minnesota Twins
Castro has played six of the eight field positions this year and has been a solid and versatile utility type since a breakout season in 2023. He doesn’t offer flashy numbers or tools, but he’s around average in most things while playing all over the field on a daily basis.Possible teams: To be determined.
Nos. 31-57
31. Seth Halvorsen, RP, Colorado Rockies32. Zack Littell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
33. Jeffrey Springs, SP, Athletics
34. Jesus Sanchez, RF, Miami Marlins
35. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
36. Dennis Santana, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
37. JP Sears, SP, Athletics
38. Michael Soroka, SP, Washington Nationals
39. Tyler Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Angels
40. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Washington Nationals
41. Luis Severino, SP, Athletics
42. Zach Eflin, SP, Baltimore Orioles
43. Pierce Johnson, RP, Atlanta Braves
44. Phil Maton, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
45. Steven Matz, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
46. Harrison Bader, CF, Minnesota Twins
47. Jake Bird, RP, Colorado Rockies
48. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
49. Yoan Moncada, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
50. Andrew Heaney, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
51. Chris Paddack, SP, Minnesota Twins
52. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Atlanta Braves
53. Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Baltimore Orioles
54. Ramon Urias, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
55. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, UT, Pittsburgh Pirates
56. Luis Urias, 2B, Athletics
57. Shelby Miller, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
