Spain vs. England: The Grand Final of the 2025 European Championship
After a month of intense continental competition that toured Switzerland, the Euro 2025 comes to an end this Sunday in Basel. The final will pit Spain against England, repeating the duel of the 2023 World Cup final. The paths of these two teams to the final were remarkably different. Spain had to overcome the most complicated part of the bracket, but managed to defeat the host and eight-time champion, Germany. England, for its part, has had to fight, coming back from adverse scores against Sweden and Italy, thanks to its key substitutes, to secure its place in the final and defend its title. Who will be victorious on Sunday? How will the match unfold? We analyze the keys to the encounter.
Why could England win?
England has shown a remarkable ability to recover throughout the tournament. Despite the initial defeat against France, the team recovered with resounding victories against the Netherlands and Wales. In addition, they managed to come back in difficult matches against Sweden and Italy, demonstrating great determination and having luck on their side. Coach Sarina Wiegman is in her fifth consecutive final in a major tournament, an impressive achievement. England also knows how to beat Spain, as they demonstrated in a match in February. If they manage to take the match to a physical battle, they will have chances to win.If they can take this game to a battle of strength, they will win.
Tom Hamilton
Why could Spain win?
Spain stands out for its clear playing identity and the quality of its players. If they manage to connect their combinations in the final third of the field, it will be difficult for England to stop them. Midfielders Patri Guijarro and Aitana Bonmatí have shone in the knockout rounds, and although Alexia Putellas has not had the same level, she was sensational in the group stage. Furthermore, Spain has the tournament’s top scorer, Esther González, and attackers like Clàudia Pina, Mariona Caldentey, Athenea del Castillo, and Salma Paralluelo, ready to contribute their talent. England’s hope lies in the fact that Switzerland and Germany managed, at certain moments, to neutralize Spain. However, both teams ultimately succumbed to the constant pressure of “La Roja”.Who deserves the trophy more: Sarina Wiegman or Montse Tomé?If the final follows the logic of the tournament, Spain and Tomé deserve the title. If a movie ending is sought, Wiegman could be the chosen one. In general, due to the drama that her team has brought and the last-minute comebacks, Wiegman could take the recognition. Tomé still faces criticism, and for some, she will always be associated with the previous regime. Jenni Hermoso, excluded from the squad, commented before the tournament that if Spain won, it would be “despite Tomé, not because of her.” With all this in mind, it is difficult to determine who deserves the title more, but Tomé will be under greater pressure.Spain has the clearest identity and the most talented players in the tournament. If their combinations in the final third work, it will be very difficult for England to stop them.
Sam Marsden
Key player in England
Chloe Kelly is often the player who appears in decisive moments. She could start on Sunday, depending on Lauren James’ fitness. Kelly scored the winning goal in the Euro 2022 final, the winning penalty in the 2023 Finalissima against Brazil and against Nigeria in the 2023 World Cup, and has been key for England in this European Championship.Key Player in Spain
Although all eyes will be on the usual players, such as Bonmatí, Pina could take advantage of this situation. She is in great form. She scored both goals in Spain’s victory against England in the UEFA Nations League in June and has scored two of her characteristic great goals in this European Championship.Predictions
England 1-0 Spain. England’s path has been unpredictable. They can lose by several goals or achieve a narrow victory. They are the “Jekyll and Hyde” of this tournament. Despite everything, there is something special about this team and the tournament they have played. I predict a 1-0 victory for England.England 0-2 Spain. Spain has played better than England throughout the tournament and I hope that trend continues. It wasn’t easy against Switzerland and Germany, and England is a step further than those teams, but I think they will overcome the challenge. I’m betting on a 2-0 victory for Spain, with the second goal coming at the end, when England tries another comeback.
Sam Marsden
Tactical Analysis
Here are five tactical areas that could be decisive in the final.Spanish Midfield MastersSpain dominates ball possession, with over 66% in all their matches. Their midfield is world-class, and the Barcelona trio formed by Patri Guijarro, Aitana Bonmatí, and Alexia Putellas are in top form. These players combine very well, representing 29% of Spain’s total passes in the tournament, with an 86% success rate. They have also created 48 of Spain’s 90 opportunities. Guijarro protects the defense and helps advance the ball; Putellas and Bonmatí participate more in the final phases and in the forward defense. This combination allows Spain to create opportunities, control possession, and defend against rival attacks.No player in the Euro 2025 has created more chances than Putellas (18), and no one has registered more progressive passes than Guijarro (60), while Bonmatí ranks fourth in terms of carries into the area (9). These players are also among the top three in these metrics per 90 minutes played (minimum of three matches).
Limiting their touches of the ball or marking them closely, as Germany did with their 4-5-1 formation, could be a way to reduce Spain’s effectiveness.Spain’s Pressure and Counter-PressureA key component of Tomé’s tactics for Spain is pressure and counter-pressure. The world champions position up to six or seven players near the opponent’s area, allowing them to challenge for the ball and have multiple players nearby to regain possession. Tomé’s 4-4-2 formation closely marks the rival players during the build-up phase, reducing their passing options and forcing them to make mistakes or risky passes. Spain tries to deny them time and cut off the passing lanes, resulting in a low success rate during the build-up phases. In fact, 18.3% of the total passes attempted against Spain have been long passes, the third highest proportion, behind France (21%) and Sweden (18.5%). However, the success rate of these passes is the lowest (37%). Spain’s proactivity results in defensive errors, and rivals have committed 13 errors that have led to shots this summer. This is not good news for England, as they have already committed eight errors that have led to shots in the tournament, the most of any team.The centers of England
The centers have been one of England’s favorite moves in the Eurocup 2025. The current champions have attempted the most crosses of all teams so far (152), and their 51 crosses against Italy in the semifinals were a record in a single match since the Eurocup 2013. Left-back Alex Greenwood (32), winger Lauren Hemp (29) and winger Chloe Kelly (29) are among the six players with the most crosses in the tournament. Hemp has made 28 of her 29 from open play, the most of any player, while Kelly has yet to start, but has attempted 20 in her last two substitute appearances against Italy and Sweden. England has created opportunities from crosses, although not in the most efficient way. No team scored more headed goals than England in the tournament (3, tied with Sweden), while their 17 headers are the most of any team. But their shot generation rate is suboptimal: The “Lionesses” have generated a shot every nine crosses they attempt, and have lacked threat in the area most of the time. Michelle Agyemang’s 96th-minute equalizer against Italy in the semi-finals and the two comeback goals for England against Sweden in the quarter-finals originated from a corner. Only Italian forward Cristiana Girelli (19) has won more aerial duels than England right-back Lucy Bronze (14) and forward Alessia Russo (13). With the aggressive positioning of the Spanish full-backs in their 4-3-3 formation, there is ample space available for the “Lionesses” in these wide areas and they could look to create opportunities from these situations.Wiegman’s Changes During the Match
The 2025 European Championship has seen how Wiegman’s tactical adjustments have taken a new form during the game. A rather rigid figure in her previous four major tournaments, the Dutch coach has adapted some solutions during the game, maintaining consistency with her starting eleven, and has turned to players like Agyemang and Kelly to save matches from the bench in the final minutes. In fact, her mid-match adjustments have caused England’s formation to shift from a 4-2-3-1, to a 3-5-2, to a 4-2-4. These changes have allowed the “Lionesses” to attack en masse, turning control into manufactured chaos, and Wiegman’s substitutions have solved some of the existing problems in her starting eleven, such as the lack of threat in the area from crosses. In their semi-final against Italy, England had five attackers on the field after the 85th minute and Agyemang took advantage to score the equalizer after the chaos in the area. Against Sweden, the change to a three-defender formation with the substitution of Esme Morgan allowed them to have two forwards occupying the center-backs. That change also allowed Bronze, one of their biggest aerial threats, to attack the area, which resulted in the first goal of the comeback. Some may say Wiegman has arrived too late, and that they were lucky, but timely changes are part of the reason why England has the most goals through substitutes in the tournament (5), with Agyemang leading the group (2). Her tactical acumen has improved England’s threat when chasing matches by sacrificing some control, and this could be a differentiating factor in the final.Spain’s Attack DepthLa Roja has quality throughout its team, with multiple Ballon d’Or winners and multiple Champions League winners on the field at all times. Spain has scored the most total goals (17), the most goals from inside and outside the area (14 and 3, respectively) and the most goals from corners (4) in the tournament. Their attacking players also offer variety, making it difficult for the opposition to select a defensive scheme. Esther González offers area awareness, runs in behind, and tenacity; Salma Paralluelo offers explosiveness and speed; while Cristina Martín-Prieto adds aerial ability. On the wings, Athenea del Castillo brings dribbling ability and direct running, while Clàudia Pina and Arsenal’s Mariona Caldentey are agile operators in tight spaces. As a result, the annotation and creation of opportunities for Spain are distributed among the team. NWSL top scorer González has the most goals (4), while Putellas tops the assists chart (4). Spain has four players with multiple goals in the tournament, the joint highest of any team (with England). England can use super-subs, but Real Madrid’s Del Castillo has also been one in the tournament, registering a goal and an assist from the bench in each knockout match so far. Their combined play on the edge of the area has allowed Spain to disrupt the opposition’s established blocks. And if nothing works, Pina has the ability to unleash a thunderous shot from the edge of the area. The way England’s defense handles these varied attack threats will certainly be important.
