India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter; it is a series of great importance with much at stake. In addition to the inherent rivalry, the scenario becomes even more crucial with the imminent final of the World Test Championship in June. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory over the West Indies puts them in third place in the championship table. If they repeat this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India: Rating Outlook

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points, which represents 75% of points. India has two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both are four-test series, with the same points allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This means that India must exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s prominent home record, they will have a good opportunity to get the maximum points against England; this means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four tests in Australia to reach the target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia: Current Situation

Australia has played three series, with 296 points, which is equivalent to 82.22%. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to achieve a percentage above 70% if the series against South Africa takes place. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three tests, there will be 40 points at stake per victory and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia is in a solid position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.