NY Liberty: Stronger than in the WNBA title? Analysis and keys

New York Liberty: On the Road to a Second Championship?

With ten games played in their championship defense, the New York Liberty are poised to contend for another title. Although their undefeated start came to an end with a 102-88 loss to the Indiana Fever, the team has demonstrated exceptional performance. Despite the loss, the Liberty hold the second-best point differential (plus 15.7) for a WNBA team in their first 10 games, only surpassed by the 2016 Los Angeles Sparks (plus 16.5), who started with an 11-0 record on their way to the title. The incorporation of Natasha Cloud has been key to covering the absence of Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, while the performance of Kennedy Burke and the return of Marine Johannes have strengthened the Liberty’s bench.

Better Than Ever?

With an 8-2 record at the start of the season, the Liberty have demonstrated remarkable dominance. The team has achieved resounding victories, surpassing their rivals in several games by wide margins, reflecting their superiority on the court. The history backs the Liberty’s dominance. Of the eight previous teams that outscored their opponents by an average of at least 12 points in the first 10 games of the season, six won the championship. The Liberty have shown that they could surpass last season’s performance, where they finished with a 32-8 record and reached the final against the Lynx. In addition to keeping their four main players, the Liberty added Cloud and recovered Johannes. Cloud has provided perimeter defense and playmaking, while Johannes has shown her potential off the bench. The arrival of Burke and the acquisition of Rebekah Gardner’s rights have strengthened the defense. Both players are averaging a combined 14 points and with a shooting percentage above 50% in three-pointers.

No New York player averages more than 30.2 minutes per game, a mark that Laney-Hamilton, Sabrina Ionescu, and Breanna Stewart surpassed last year.

A notable difference between the Liberty during last year’s WNBA championship season and this season? Breanna Stewart is averaging three fewer rebounds per game (8.5 per game in 2024 versus 5.4 in 10 games in 2025).David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images

Looking for Weaknesses

The Liberty lead the WNBA in offensive and defensive efficiency. Of the eight teams that have achieved this feat in league history, seven won the championship, with the exception of the 2016 Lynx. The only notable weakness of the Liberty is offensive rebounding, where they rank last. Improvement in defensive rebounding, especially with Jonquel Jones on the court, is crucial for the team. The key to solidifying the Liberty’s game lies in Stewart regaining her rebounding ability, which could make the difference.

Rematch in the Finals?

Despite their good performance, the Liberty are half a game behind the Minnesota Lynx, the team that defeated them in last season’s finals. Both teams, with a 9-0 start, lead the league. BPI simulations show that the Liberty have a 73% chance of reaching the finals and the Lynx a 60%, suggesting a possible rematch. The biggest challenge is identifying who could eliminate Minnesota and New York from the finals. The Atlanta Dream are a team to watch out for, with a positive point differential and good title odds. The Indiana Fever showed their potential against the Liberty, and although the Las Vegas Aces have a championship pedigree, they need to prove their worth on the court.