The Australian Open 2026: A New Tennis Season with Defined Favorites
The first Grand Slam of the 2026 season kicks off this weekend in Melbourne, and the hierarchy in professional tennis has rarely been so clear. With established figures and young prospects, the tournament promises strong emotions and memorable matches. In the men’s circuit, the dominance of “Jannik Sinner” and “Carlos Alcaraz” is evident. Sinner has an impressive 32-0 record against players other than Alcaraz in the last five Grand Slams. Alcaraz, for his part, already has six Grand Slam titles and hasn’t yet turned 23. These figures contrast with those of legends like Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer at the same age, who had fewer combined titles. In the women’s field, Aryna Sabalenka stands out as the player to beat. With only two losses in her last six hard court Grand Slams and a finalist in seven of her last ten events on this surface, Sabalenka has shown remarkable consistency, similar to that of Iga Swiatek on clay. Furthermore, Sabalenka defeated Swiatek on clay last year, solidifying her dominance.Despite the clear favorites, each Grand Slam offers surprises and exciting side stories. Below, we analyze the 20 players with the greatest chances of standing out at the 2026 Australian Open.
Contents
Favorites
Jannik Sinner
DraftKings Odds: -120 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 52.6%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Ben Shelton (quarterfinals) Sinner, the two-time defending champion of the Australian Open, stands out for his powerful groundstrokes and his ability to neutralize any point. His ability to retrieve difficult balls and re-establish his position on the court is impressive. In addition, he has a higher first serve effectiveness percentage than any other player. Although he has lost seven of his last nine matches against Carlos Alcaraz, Sinner presents himself as a strong candidate for the title. Sinner won his last match against Alcaraz at the Tour Finals in Riyadh, but Alcaraz is the only player capable of taking him out of his comfortable game patterns. Sinner seems to have a slightly more favorable draw than Alcaraz, having won eight consecutive matches against Shelton, his possible first top 10 opponent. The question is whether Sinner will finish first or second.Carlos Alcaraz
DraftKings Odds: +180 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 33.6%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Alex de Minaur or Alexander Bublik (quarterfinals) Alcaraz had a slow start to the previous year, but managed to reach the final in ten of his last eleven events. He won the French Open and, after an unexpected defeat against Sinner at Wimbledon, focused on specific training to face Sinner, achieving a victory in the US Open final. Alcaraz seeks to complete the career Grand Slam, as he has not yet surpassed the quarterfinals at the Australian Open. In addition, he begins the year without his long-term coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero.Aryna Sabalenka
DraftKings Odds: +185 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 33.3%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Jasmine Paolini (quarterfinals)
After the finals of the Australian Open and Roland Garros, and the semifinals of Wimbledon, Sabalenka was looking to close out a near-perfect season. However, she showed no pressure and conquered her second consecutive title at the US Open, finishing 2025 with 63 victories and leading the WTA ranking. Sabalenka had a promising start to 2026, dominating the Brisbane tournament. With the absence of Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek on her side of the draw at the Australian Open, Sabalenka has a high probability of reaching the semifinals.The Aspirants
Iga Swiatek
DraftKings Odds: +500 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 10.0%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Elena Rybakina or Belinda Bencic (quarterfinals) Swiatek, after not being able to keep up with Sabalenka last season and a disappointing performance on clay, won Wimbledon for the first time. The two-time Australian Open semi-finalist is looking for the title in Melbourne to complete the career Grand Slam. However, she has lost her last two matches in the United Cup and faces a difficult draw, with possible matches against Naomi Osaka and Elena Rybakina.Coco Gauff
DraftKings Odds: +700 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 9.9%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Mirra Andreeva (quarterfinals) Gauff could face Venus Williams in the second round, a match that would awaken nostalgia among fans. Despite an irregular season in 2025, Gauff achieved important victories against Sabalenka and Swiatek, won her first title at Roland Garros and reached the final in three 1000-level tournaments. Gauff is a threat in any tournament and has already defeated Swiatek in 2026.
Elena Rybakina
DraftKings Odds: +800 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 12.8%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Belinda Bencic (fourth round) Rybakina’s 2025 season was variable, but she managed to win the Tour Finals title in Riyadh. When in top form, Rybakina is positioned as one of the best players in the world.Novak Djokovic
DraftKings Odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 5.7%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Lorenzo Musetti or Taylor Fritz (quarterfinals) At 38 years old, Djokovic remains one of the best players in the world. Although he participates in fewer tournaments, his ability to reach his best level in major events remains remarkable, with four semi-final appearances in Grand Slams in 2025.Naomi Osaka
DraftKings Odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.6%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Iga Swiatek (fourth round) After a while, Osaka found her rhythm, reaching the finals in Montreal and the semifinals of the US Open. Although she has had health problems, Osaka is back in the top 20 and her serve is elite.Madison Keys
DraftKings Odds: +3000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 1.7%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Jessica Pegula (fourth round)
Keys won her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, but had an irregular performance for the rest of the season. Her participation in the tournament will depend on her performance against Pegula and Amanda Anisimova.Daniil Medvedev
DraftKings Odds: +3000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 1.2%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Felix Auger-Aliassime (fourth round) Medvedev, three-time Australian Open finalist, had a disappointing Grand Slam season in 2025. However, he has shown recent improvement, which could boost him in the tournament.Alexander Zverev
DraftKings Odds: +3500 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 2.4%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Felix Auger-Aliassime (quarterfinals) Zverev had the opportunity to reach number 1, but he failed to achieve it. His consistent serve and playing ability make him a difficult opponent. However, his record against the top 10 in 2025 raises doubts about his ability to advance.Ben Shelton
DraftKings Odds: +8000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.2%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Jannik Sinner (quarterfinals) Shelton, a semi-finalist at the 2025 Australian Open, had a shoulder injury that affected his performance. Despite the doubts, his potential remains undeniable.Young Promises
Amanda Anisimova
DraftKings Odds: +900 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 6.7%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Jessica Pegula or Madison Keys (quarterfinals) Anisimova was one of the revelations of 2025, with a great performance after a period of inactivity. Her mental capacity and her backhand make her a formidable competitor. Although she has never surpassed the fourth round in Melbourne, there is no indication that she cannot do it.Mirra Andreeva
DraftKings Odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 5.0%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Coco Gauff (quarterfinals) Andreeva, at just 18 years old, has shown great potential. Although she suffered injuries, her recent performance in Adelaide indicates that she is ready to compete.Jessica Pegula
DraftKings Odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 5.0%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Madison Keys (fourth round)
Pegula has had varied results in the Grand Slams. Her performance in this tournament will depend on her ability to overcome her rivals.Jasmine Paolini
DraftKings Odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 2.6%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals) Paolini had an outstanding season in 2025, but his current form raises doubts about his performance in the tournament.
Taylor Fritz
DraftKings Odds: +6000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.6%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round) Fritz has learned to improve his skills, but he has had a complicated start to 2026 due to knee problems. If he manages to overcome these problems, he could reach the quarterfinals.Alex de Minaur
DraftKings Odds: +6500 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 1.0%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Alexander Bublik (fourth round) De Minaur, with his speed, has maximized his game and reached sixth place in the world ranking. He has reached the quarterfinals in several Grand Slams, but his record against Alcaraz and Sinner could limit his potential.Candidates to Surprise
Victoria Mboko
DraftKings Odds: +3500 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 1.0%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Aryna Sabalenka (fourth round)
Mboko, after dominating on the ITF circuit, had a successful debut on the WTA. Her match against Sabalenka in the fourth round promises a high-intensity duel.Learner Tien
DraftKings Odds: +15000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.2%
Potential first top 10 opponent: Felix Auger-Aliassime (third round)
Tien could be one of the young players with the greatest projection in the men’s circuit.
