The WNBA Enters Its Second Half: Analysis and Outlook for the Season
The WNBA begins the second half of its schedule this Tuesday, with three teams emerging as the main contenders for the championship: Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty, and Phoenix Mercury. The league will also have to answer important questions off the court. Negotiating a collective bargaining agreement between the WNBA and the players’ association is crucial. With the expansion draft for the Portland and Toronto teams, and a significant free agency in 2026, securing a short-term agreement is vital. The players highlighted salary negotiations over the weekend in Indianapolis, discussing the topic at every opportunity with the media and wearing shirts with the slogan “Pay Us What You Owe Us” at the All-Star Game. Although the players seem to be focused on influencing public opinion, this may not change the stance of the WNBA and its owners in the negotiations. So far, the conversations have followed the expected course, with neither side revealing all their cards. We will be watching closely how the parties approach each other during the summer and autumn. After the All-Star break, each team faces challenges. We analyze the most important ones for each of them as the second half of the season begins.Teams Analysis
1. Minnesota Lynx
Record: 20-4Upcoming matches: vs. CHI (July 22), vs. LV (July 25), vs. ATL (July 27)Will the Lynx’s attack be enough to fight for the championship? They have the second-best scoring average in the WNBA (84.7 points per game), while limiting their opponents to 75 points per game, the lowest figure in the league. Although their offense and defense are very solid, coach Cheryl Reeve could be concerned about the vulnerability of their attack, especially if rivals focus on stopping the MVP, Napheesa Collier.
2. New York Liberty
Record: 15-6Upcoming matches: vs. IND (July 22), vs. PHO (July 25), vs. LA (July 26), @DAL (July 28) Will the Liberty be able to surpass the Lynx to get the first place? Both teams still have four matches in the regular season, starting July 30 in Minnesota.Monday brought good news for the current champions: center Jonquel Jones is expected to return for Tuesday’s game against Indiana, while Belgian forward Emma Meesseman has committed to join the Liberty upon her return to the WNBA. New York could have the most formidable interior game in the league.
3. Phoenix Mercury
Record: 15-7Upcoming matches: vs. ATL (July 23), @ NY (July 25), @ WAS (July 27) Will Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper return strongly after their injuries? Sabally has played in 18 of the Mercury’s 22 games, while Copper has only played in six. Despite this, Phoenix is in third place in the standings, led by All-Star Alyssa Thomas. Thomas is used to carrying a heavy load, but the Mercury needs Sabally and Copper to aim for the championship.4. Indiana Fever
Record: 12-11Upcoming matches: @ NY (July 22), vs. LV (July 24), @ CHI (July 27) How much will Caitlin Clark be able to play in the second half of the season? She has been ruled out for Tuesday, which will mark the eleventh regular season game she misses this year. She was also absent from the Commissioner’s Cup final on July 1st and the All-Star Game. If her groin injury requires a lot of rest, the Fever may take a conservative approach and keep her out indefinitely.5. Seattle Storm
Record: 14-9Upcoming matches: vs. DAL (July 22), @ CHI (July 25), @ WAS (July 26), @ CON (July 28)Will forward Ezi Magbegor be able to contribute more offensively? With 8.1 points per game, her scoring average is the lowest of the last four seasons. Since joining the WNBA in 2020, she has never finished a season with a field goal percentage below 50%; she is currently at 49.0%. Shooting 4 of 23 three-pointers hasn’t helped. Skylar Diggins, Nneka Ogwumike, Gabby Williams, and Erica Wheeler average double digits, but the Storm are eighth in scoring average (80.9 points per game). Magbegor being an offensive threat could help.
6. Washington Mystics
Record: 11-11Upcoming matches: vs LA (July 22), vs. SEA (July 26), vs. PHO (July 27)Will rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen be able to finish the second half of the season strong? Both were All-Stars and have been an important part of the Mystics’ game plan, but they have been playing since the beginning of last college season without much rest. All WNBA rookies must overcome the fatigue they may experience in the second part of the season. We will be watching how picks number 3 and 4 deal with that.
7. Atlanta Dream
Record: 13-9Upcoming games: @ LV (July 22), @ PHO (July 23), @ MIN (July 27)Will Rhyne Howard be as effective when she returns? She has had a very good season, leading the Dream in assists (4.5 per game) and steals (1.6 per game), while being second in scoring (16.5 points per game). But no timetable was set for Howard’s return when she was injured (knee) in a loss in Indiana on July 11; Atlanta only said on July 14 that she would be out for the rest of the month. She missed the All-Star Game in Indianapolis.
8. Las Vegas Aces
Record: 11-11Upcoming matches: vs. ATL (July 22), @ IND (July 24), @ MIN (July 25), @ DAL (July 27)Can forward NaLyssa Smith take some pressure off A’ja Wilson on the court? The starting trio of guards Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd hasn’t been as productive as Young, Gray, and Kelsey Plum were from 2021 to 2024. They are still a good group when they play at their best, but Wilson, who is in contention for a fourth MVP award, could use more help inside. The Aces signed Smith in late June and would benefit if she improved her scoring average of 6.8 points per game.
9. Golden State Valkyries
Record: 10-12Upcoming matches: vs. DAL (July 25), @ CON (July 27)Will Golden State be able to get out of their July slump? The Valkyries, an expansion team, had a good June with a 7-4 streak, but it’s been more difficult since then: They have a 1-5 record in July, and their schedule won’t help them, as they will play five of their next six games away from home.
10. Los Angeles Sparks
Record: 8-14Upcoming matches: @ WAS (July 22), @ CON (July 24), @ NY (July 26) Will Cameron Brink play before the season ends? The No. 2 pick of the 2024 draft was making an impact as a rookie until her season was cut short by a knee injury she suffered last June. With Kelsey Plum (20.1), Dearica Hamby (17.2), Azura Stevens (14.7), and Rickea Jackson (13.1) averaging double digits in scoring, the Sparks have a good core, but Brink’s return could help them reach the playoffs.11. Chicago Sky
Record: 7-15Upcoming matches: @ MIN (July 22), vs. SEA (July 24), vs. IND (July 27)Will Angel Reese be able to maintain her offensive streak? She averages 14.0 points this season, but in eight games since June 24th, that figure rises to 19.1 points per game. She has also had a shooting percentage above 50% in five of those games, an impressive streak for the second-year forward.
12. Dallas Wings
Record: 6-17Upcoming matches: @ SEA (July 22), @ GS (July 25), vs. LV (July 27), vs. NY (July 28)How much progress can rookie point guards make? Paige Bueckers, Aziaha James, and JJ Quinerly have been the best part of watching a disappointing Wings team. It can be assumed that some of the veterans will not return to Dallas next season, but this trio of point guards will. Their energy and enthusiasm can be one of the foundations for a new Wings team in 2026. How they play for the rest of this season will help determine that.
13. Connecticut Sun
Record: 3-19Upcoming matches: vs. LA (July 24), vs. GS (July 27), vs. SEA (July 28)Will the Sun generate some momentum for 2026? It’s been a really tough season for Connecticut, which lost all five starters from 2024 along with coach Stephanie White. It’s difficult to qualify this as a rebuilding year; it’s more of a “just get through it” year with the hope that there are ways to improve for next season. But right now, the Sun are on pace to win only five games, as they only have one win in May, June, and July.
