WNBA Analysis: Key Scenarios in the Final Stretch of the 2025 Season
With only ten days left in the 2025 WNBA regular season, we already know the team that will lead the standings, the Minnesota Lynx, and four of the five teams that will not advance to the playoffs. However, crucial aspects still need to be defined. The fight for home-court advantage in the first round, with the second, third, and fourth seeds, remains intense. Furthermore, the uncertainty of which rivals will face each other in this phase is a topic of interest. Will the Los Angeles Sparks be able to climb the standings from ninth position and secure a place in the playoffs? Throughout the season, marked by being the most extensive in WNBA history, all teams have faced challenges due to injuries. Now, attention is focused on how these situations will impact the postseason. Below, we explore the best possible scenario for each team in this final stretch.1. Minnesota Lynx (32-8)
Previous Position: 1
Next Seven Days: @ LV (September 4th), @ GS (September 6th) The Lynx, after defeating Seattle, Connecticut, and Dallas, secured home-court advantage throughout their playoff participation. Although their results could influence the position of other teams, especially Golden State, whom they face twice, their last four games have little at stake. The best-case scenario for the Lynx would be historic: if they win all their games and finish with a 36-8 record, they would achieve an 81.8% win rate in the regular season, the second-best in franchise history, surpassed only by the 82.4% of 2016. Furthermore, their 36 wins would be the most in WNBA history, although the four additional games added to this season’s schedule must be considered.2. Las Vegas Aces (26-14)
Previous Position: 2
Next Seven Days: vs. MIN (September 4th), vs. CHI (September 7th) The Aces tied a franchise record with their 12th straight win on Wednesday, defeating Atlanta and securing a 3-0 series sweep, giving them the tiebreaker for second place. They also won the season series against Phoenix (3-1), which gives them the tiebreaker if needed. With a full week to prepare for Minnesota, the best-case scenario for Las Vegas is to win all their games to secure second place and establish a record winning streak for the club.3. Atlanta Dream (26-14)
Previous Position: 3
Next Seven Days: vs. LA (September 3rd), vs. LA (September 5th), vs. CON (September 8th) After losing to Las Vegas and triumphing over Dallas, the Dream welcomed back their point guard, Jordin Canada, following a hamstring injury in Monday’s victory against Connecticut. The best-case scenario for Atlanta is to win all their games and for Las Vegas to lose one of their last four games, which would give them second place. Atlanta has the tiebreaker advantage over Phoenix with a 3-0 season sweep.4. Phoenix Mercury (25-14)
Previous Position: 4
Next Seven Days: vs. IND (September 2nd), @ WAS (September 4th), @ CON (September 6th) The Mercury defeated Los Angeles, Chicago and New York, winning six of their last seven games. Kahleah Copper has been limited to 23 games due to injuries, but is playing well heading into the postseason, scoring 68 points in her last three combined games. The optimal result for Phoenix, which has played one less game than Atlanta and Las Vegas, is to win their last five games, while the Dream and the Aces each lose at least one game, which would give them second place.5. New York Liberty (24-16)
Previous Position: 5Next Seven Days: @ GS (September 2), @ SEA (September 5) The Liberty beat Washington and lost to Phoenix in the last week, reflecting the difficulty they’ve had in maintaining momentum since late July, when Breanna Stewart suffered a bone contusion in her right knee that kept her out for 13 games. Although they are technically in contention for second place, a more realistic scenario is to move up to the top four, although it won’t be easy with three of their four remaining games away from home.6. Golden State Valkyries (21-18)
Previous Position: 7
Next Seven Days: vs. NY (September 2), vs. DAL (September 4), vs. MIN (September 6) The Valkyries, after defeating Washington and Indiana, finished August with an 8-5 record, with the five losses against teams currently in the top four. With a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, they are close to securing a playoff spot, but they still have to face Minnesota twice. Although positions 4 and 5 are mathematically possible, they are not probable. A more likely scenario is sixth place, which would be a great achievement for an expansion franchise that many predicted would not reach the postseason.7. Indiana Fever (21-19)
Previous Position: 9
Next Seven Days: @ PHO (September 2), vs. Chi (September 5), @ WAS (September 7) The Fever are still in a playoff position despite the injury challenges they have faced throughout the season. They secured crucial wins over Seattle and Los Angeles before losing to Golden State. Technically, they could finish in 4th place, but it’s unlikely they will win their last four games and that the teams directly above them will falter. A realistic scenario for Indiana is sixth place, and the return of Caitlin Clark for the postseason.8. Seattle Storm (22-20)
Previous Position: 6
Next Seven Days: vs. NY (September 5th) Seattle hasn’t handled prosperity well this season. After falling to Indiana before beating Minnesota and Chicago, they blew a 17-point lead against Los Angeles, falling 91-85 at home. The best-case scenario for the Storm is to win both games to finish with a .500 home record and enter the postseason with 24 wins.9. Los Angeles Sparks (19-20)
Previous Position: 8
Next Seven Days: @ ATL (September 3rd), @ ATL (September 5th), vs. DAL (September 7th) Los Angeles lost against Phoenix and Indiana and then had to work hard to beat Washington. The best-case scenario is to win four games and hope that 23 wins are enough to surpass Golden State, Indiana, or Seattle.
