The 2025 WNBA season has been marked by a concerning number of injuries that have affected the league’s most prominent players.According to an analysis by The IX Basketball, a total of 117 players have been absent, totaling 868 missed games. Among those affected are renowned figures such as Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Jonquel Jones, Jordin Canada, and Rhyne Howard, who have been off the court on multiple occasions.Additionally, A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas have also suffered injuries that have kept them out of competition.Players like Courtney Vandersloot, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Kayla Thornton, Katie Lou Samuelson, and Georgia Amoore, along with some players from the Fever, such as Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, and Sydney Colson, will not return this season. However, several of the stars have already returned to action, and more players are expected to rejoin as the playoffs approach.
Which teams will benefit most from the return of their stars?
To analyze the impact of these absences and returns, we have examined the six teams with the greatest chances of winning the championship, according to the Elo-based forecast model: Lynx, Dream, Aces, Liberty, Mercury, and Fever. Their title chances and Simple Ranking System (SRS) rankings were compared before and after adjusting the rankings for the absences of key players. It was also estimated how much each team could gain with the return of the players, using the estimated RAPTOR ratings to calculate the impact of their presence on the point difference of each game.Minnesota Lynx
Napheesa Collier
Status: Returned on August 24 (ankle)Record in lost matches: 7-3SRS with and without the absence of Collier: +9.43 vs. +10.64Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Collier’s absence: 58.8% vs. 68%The Lynx haven’t suffered many injuries this season, but the absence of Collier, who was leading the MVP race before getting injured, has made a difference. Her return could be crucial for the team’s performance in the playoffs.Atlanta Dream
Jordin Canada
Status: Out since August 13th (hamstring)Rhyne HowardStatus: Returned on August 10 (knee)Record in lost matches: 10-5SRS with and without their absences: +5.94 vs. +7.10Title possibilities after adjusting the classifications for their absences: 19.3% vs. 28%Although neither Canada nor Howard are at the same level as Collier or Stewart, they are very important players. If Canada returns for the playoffs, Atlanta could improve significantly.Las Vegas Aces
A’ja WilsonStatus: Returned on July 12 (doll)Record in lost matches: 1-3SRS with and without Wilson’s absence: +0.96 vs. +1.47Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Wilson’s absence: 14.1% vs. 21%The absence of Wilson has significantly affected the team’s statistics. Despite his brief absences, the Aces must perform above their regular performance in the playoffs.New York Liberty
Breanna Stewart
Status: Returned on August 25 (knee)Jonquel Jones
Status: Returned on July 22 (ankle)Record in lost matches: 5-8SRS with and without their absences: +4.01 vs. +5.86Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for their absences: 2% vs. 8%Stewart represents the most expensive absence of the season. With his return and that of Jones, the Liberty could significantly improve their performance.Phoenix Mercury
Alyssa Thomas
Status: Returned on June 11 (calf)Natasha MackStatus: Returned on June 11 (back)Record in lost matches: 2-3SRS with and without their absences: +3.39 vs. +4.10Title possibilities after adjusting the classifications for their absences: 3.6% vs. 7%Like Wilson and Collier, Thomas is an MVP candidate. The return of Thomas and Mack could improve the Mercury’s performance in the playoffs.Indiana Fever
Caitlin Clark
Status: Away since July 15th (ingle)Record in lost matches: 12-13SRS with and without their absences: +1.90 vs. +2.46Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Clark’s absence: 1.6% vs. 2%The absence of Clark, the most media-hyped player, has affected the Fever’s performance. Although her impact is underestimated by advanced metrics, the team is better when she is on the court.
