Detailed Analysis of the WNBA: Key Scenarios in the Final Stretch
With only ten days left to conclude the 2025 WNBA regular season, we already know the number one seed, the Minnesota Lynx, and four of the five teams that will not advance to the playoffs. However, there are still crucial aspects to be defined.
The focus is on determining which teams will secure home-court advantage in the first round, i.e., seeds 2, 3, and 4. In addition, it is essential to analyze which rivals they will face and whether the Los Angeles Sparks will manage to climb positions from their ninth place in the standings.
Throughout the longest season in WNBA history, injuries have affected all teams. Below, we present the most favorable scenarios for each one in this final stretch.1. Minnesota Lynx (32-8)
Previous position: 1Next seven days: @ LV (September 4), @ GS (September 6)
Having defeated Seattle, Connecticut, and Dallas, the Lynx have secured home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Although they could influence the position of other teams, especially Golden State, their last four games have little relevance. The best-case scenario for the Lynx would be historic: if they win all their games and finish with a 36-8 record, they would have an 81.8% win rate in the regular season, the second-best in franchise history, only surpassed by the 82.4% of 2016. Their 36 wins would be the most in WNBA history, although the four additional games added to this season’s schedule would need to be considered.2. Las Vegas Aces (26-14)
Previous position: 2Next seven days: vs. MIN (September 4), vs. CHI (September 7)
The Aces tied a franchise record with their 12th straight win, defeating Atlanta to sweep the series 3-0 and gain the possible tiebreaker advantage for second place. They also won the season series against Phoenix (3-1), so the Aces also have that tiebreaker, if needed. With a full week to prepare for Minnesota, the best-case scenario for Las Vegas is to win all their games to secure second place and establish a record winning streak for the club.3. Atlanta Dream (26-14)
Previous position: 3Next seven days: vs. LA (September 3), vs. LA (September 5), vs. CON (September 8)
After losing to Las Vegas and triumphing over Dallas, the Dream welcomed back point guard Jordin Canada, who recovered from a hamstring injury in Monday’s victory in Connecticut. The best-case scenario is that they win all their games and that Las Vegas loses one of their last four, which would give the Dream second place. Atlanta has the possible tiebreaker advantage over Phoenix with a 3-0 sweep in the season series.4. Phoenix Mercury (25-14)
Previous position: 4Next seven days: vs. IND (September 2), @ WAS (September 4), @ CON (September 6)
The Mercury defeated Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York last week, winning six of their last seven games. Kahleah Copper has been limited to 23 games due to injuries, but she is playing well heading into the postseason, scoring 68 points in her last three combined games. The optimal result for Phoenix, which has played one less game than Atlanta and Las Vegas, is to win their last five games, while the Dream and the Aces lose at least once to give the Mercury the second place.5. New York Liberty (24-16)
Previous position: 5Next seven days: @ GS (September 2), @ SEA (September 5)
The Liberty beat Washington and lost to Phoenix last week, reflecting the difficulty New York has had in maintaining momentum since the end of July, when Breanna Stewart suffered a bone contusion in her right knee that sidelined her for 13 games. Stewart is back, but the Liberty still don’t look like the defending champions. While they are technically in the running for second place, a more realistic scenario is to move up into the top four, although it won’t be easy with three of their four remaining games away from home.6. Golden State Valkyries (21-18)
Previous position: 7Next seven days: vs. NY (September 2), vs. DAL (September 4), vs. MIN (September 6)
The Valkyries defeated Washington and Indiana last week to finish August with an 8-5 record, with the five losses against teams currently in the top four. They have a 7-3 record in their last 10 games and are close to a playoff spot, but the Valkyries still have to play against Minnesota twice. Mathematically, the 4th and 5th positions are achievable, but not probable. A more likely scenario is the sixth position, which would be excellent for an expansion franchise that many predicted would not make the postseason.7. Indiana Fever (21-19)
Previous position: 9Next seven days: @ PHO (September 2), vs. Chi (September 5), @ WAS (September 7)
The Fever are still in a playoff position despite having been dealing with injuries all season. They secured crucial wins over Seattle and Los Angeles before losing to Golden State last week. But they are not out of the woods yet; the Sparks could still catch them for the last playoff spot. Technically, the Fever could finish in the number 4 spot, but it is unlikely that they will win their last four games and that the teams directly ahead of them will crumble. A realistic scenario for Indiana is the sixth spot, and the return of Caitlin Clark for the postseason.8. Seattle Storm (22-20)
Previous position: 6Next seven days: vs. NY (September 5th)
The Storm really haven’t known how to handle prosperity this season. After falling to Indiana before beating Minnesota and Chicago last week, they blew a 17-point lead over Los Angeles on Monday to fall 91-85 at home. Seattle would have been closer to securing a playoff spot with a win; now they only have two games to do it. The best-case scenario is for the Storm to win both games to finish with a .500 home record and enter the postseason with 24 wins.9. Los Angeles Sparks (19-20)
Previous position: 8Next seven days: @ ATL (September 3), @ ATL (September 5), vs. DAL (September 7)
Los Angeles lost to Phoenix and Indiana and then had to work hard to beat Washington last week. That set up Monday’s key game in Seattle, in which the Storm seemed to have the advantage until they cooled down. The Sparks’ 91-85 victory keeps alive the hope of ending their four-year playoff drought. They still have a lot of work to do with five games remaining, including three away from home. The Sparks have had a five-game winning streak (in July), but they must face Atlanta (twice), Phoenix and Las Vegas. The best-case scenario is to win four and hope that 23 wins will be enough to surpass Golden State, Indiana or Seattle.10. Connecticut Sun (10-30)
Previous position: 11Next seven days: vs. PHO (September 4), vs. IND (September 7)
Last week, Connecticut defeated Dallas before falling to Minnesota and Atlanta. On the verge of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and facing uncertainty about whether the franchise will be sold, there is no really good scenario for the Sun. But they won five games in the second half of August, as many as they had won in the previous three months, and could finish in 11th place while playing a “spoiler” role for Atlanta’s hopes of getting the second seed, as they still face the Dream twice.11. Washington Mystics (16-25)
Previous position: 10Next seven days: vs. PHO (September 4), vs. IND (September 7)
The playoffs were still a possibility for the Mystics in mid-August, but all the air has gone out of that balloon. Washington is out of the postseason, which is not surprising for a rebuilding team. The Mystics lost to New York, Golden State, and Los Angeles last week, and are on a seven-game losing streak. The best-case scenario is that they end the losing streak in their last three games and that Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen are named to the WNBA All-Rookie Team.12. Chicago Sky (9-30)
Previous position: 12Next seven days: vs. CON (September 3), @ IND (September 5), @ LV (September 7)
The Sky fell to Phoenix and Seattle last week, and they will be out of the postseason for the second year in a row. Chicago has a 2-17 record since the All-Star break and has a lot to figure out for the future. The best-case scenario is that the Sky avoid last place and perhaps impact the order of the top four seeds, as they still have games remaining against Las Vegas (twice) and New York.13. Dallas Wings (9-32)
Previous position: 13Next seven days: @ GS (September 4), @ LA (September 7)
The Wings’ only victory since July 30th was a one-point decision in Indiana on August 12th. They are in the midst of an eight-game losing streak, falling last week to Connecticut, Atlanta, and Minnesota. The best-case scenario is that they celebrate Paige Bueckers’ imminent Rookie of the Year award and hope to win the draft lottery for a second consecutive number 1 pick.
